基于LUCC的四川省主体功能区碳排放与生态补偿研究
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摘要
土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC)影响下的碳排放充分体现人类活动对生态环境的扰动程度,由此切入的碳收支与补偿研究对区域低碳经济与平衡发展具有重要意义。本文以2005年和2015年四川省土地利用数据为基础,参考IPCC假定构建碳排放模型,借助GIS平台运用数学模型对四川省5个主体功能区碳排放及碳补偿率进行测度与分析,采用造林成本法和碳税率法对生态补偿标准进行测算。结果表明:1)研究期内四川省各主体功能区土地利用与主体功能区规划相符并按其功能定位优化发展。重点开发区域耕地占绝对优势,建设用地面积的总量和增量最大;重点生态功能区林地、草地占比最大。2)研究期内各主体功能区的总碳排放量大幅度增加。重点开发区域碳源量、总碳排放量及其增量均居首位;重点生态功能区碳吸收的能力减弱。3)各主体功能区建设用地碳排放强度远大于总碳排放强度,研究期内各主体功能区总碳排放强度均增加,建设用地碳排放强度则有增有减。国家层面重点开发区域总碳排放强度最大,建设用地碳排放强度很小。4)生态发展区碳补偿率高,经济发达区低。国家层面限制开发区域(重点生态功能区)碳吸收补偿系数最高。5)碳源区应对作为碳汇区的甘孜藏族自治州按固碳价格进行生态补偿。碳排放量与各主体功能区功能定位高度相关,生态补偿标准大致从成都平原向四周递减,限制开发区域生态补偿标准偏低。基于碳排放的生态补偿标准建立横向财政转移支付政策,有利于四川省节能减排和平衡发展。
Carbon emissions under land use/cover change(LUCC) reflect the disturbance degree of environment by human activities. Therefore, carbon budget and compensation research was of great significance to regional low-carbon economy and balanced development. Based on land use data for Sichuan Province in 2005 and 2015, this paper built a new local land use classification system and carbon emission model to quantitatively analyze carbon emission and carbon offset rate of land use in 183 counties in Sichuan Province. Taking into account regional differences at county level and breaking traditional administrative regional boundaries, the study based on the five main functional areas of Sichuan Province to measure ecological compensation standards with afforestation cost and carbon tax rate methods. The results showed that: 1) during the study period, land use in each main functional area in Sichuan Province was consistent with the main functional area planning and was optimized according to the functional orientation. Cultivated lands in the key development area had absolute advantage, while the total amount and increase in construction land area was the largest. Otherwise, cultivated land holding capacity in the main agricultural production area remained the strongest. Woodland and grassland accounted for 70%–80% in the key ecological function areas. 2) During the study period, total carbon emission in each main functional area increased significantly, and the construction land was the main carbon source, and forest land was the main carbon sink. Total carbon emissions and increments in the key development area ranked first, with carbon sinks in the key ecological functional area accounting for 63% of Sichuan Province, although the ability to absorb carbon gradually weakened. 3) Carbon emission intensity of construction land of each main functional area was much greater than total carbon emission intensity. Total carbon emission intensity of each main functional area increased during the investigated period, but carbon emission intensity of construction land showed increased or decreased. Total carbon emission intensity of the key development area at national level was largest, while that of construction land was smallest. 4) The rate of carbon compensation in the ecological development areas was high, with economic development area having the reverse trend. The compensation coefficient of carbon absorption was highest for the restricted development area at national level(key ecological function area). 5) Carbon source area provided ecological compensation for carbon sink area based on the scope of ecological compensation. Ecological compensation standard for Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, which was a carbon sink area, was 5.82 billion to 20.56 billion Yuan. It indicated that carbon emission was correlated with functional location of each functional area. Ecological compensation standard generally decreased from Chengdu Plain to the surrounding areas, and ecological compensation standard of the restricted development areas were relatively low. On the basis of the ecological compensation standard for carbon emissions, a horizontal fiscal transfer payment policy was established as reference basis for energy conservation, emission reduction and balanced development of Sichuan Province.
Carbon emissions under land use/cover change(LUCC) reflect the disturbance degree of environment by human activities. Therefore, carbon budget and compensation research was of great significance to regional low-carbon economy and balanced development. Based on land use data for Sichuan Province in 2005 and 2015, this paper built a new local land use classification system and carbon emission model to quantitatively analyze carbon emission and carbon offset rate of land use in 183 counties in Sichuan Province. Taking into account regional differences at county level and breaking traditional administrative regional boundaries, the study based on the five main functional areas of Sichuan Province to measure ecological compensation standards with afforestation cost and carbon tax rate methods. The results showed that: 1) during the study period, land use in each main functional area in Sichuan Province was consistent with the main functional area planning and was optimized according to the functional orientation. Cultivated lands in the key development area had absolute advantage, while the total amount and increase in construction land area was the largest. Otherwise, cultivated land holding capacity in the main agricultural production area remained the strongest. Woodland and grassland accounted for 70%–80% in the key ecological function areas. 2) During the study period, total carbon emission in each main functional area increased significantly, and the construction land was the main carbon source, and forest land was the main carbon sink. Total carbon emissions and increments in the key development area ranked first, with carbon sinks in the key ecological functional area accounting for 63% of Sichuan Province, although the ability to absorb carbon gradually weakened. 3) Carbon emission intensity of construction land of each main functional area was much greater than total carbon emission intensity. Total carbon emission intensity of each main functional area increased during the investigated period, but carbon emission intensity of construction land showed increased or decreased. Total carbon emission intensity of the key development area at national level was largest, while that of construction land was smallest. 4) The rate of carbon compensation in the ecological development areas was high, with economic development area having the reverse trend. The compensation coefficient of carbon absorption was highest for the restricted development area at national level(key ecological function area). 5) Carbon source area provided ecological compensation for carbon sink area based on the scope of ecological compensation. Ecological compensation standard for Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, which was a carbon sink area, was 5.82 billion to 20.56 billion Yuan. It indicated that carbon emission was correlated with functional location of each functional area. Ecological compensation standard generally decreased from Chengdu Plain to the surrounding areas, and ecological compensation standard of the restricted development areas were relatively low. On the basis of the ecological compensation standard for carbon emissions, a horizontal fiscal transfer payment policy was established as reference basis for energy conservation, emission reduction and balanced development of Sichuan Province.
引文
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[2]HOUGHTON R A.The annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use 1850-1990[J].Tellus B:Chemical and Physical Meteorology,1999,51(2):298-313
[3]李蓓蓓,方修琦,叶瑜,等.中国东北地区过去300年耕地开垦导致的碳收支[J].中国科学:地球科学,2014,44(9):1987-1996LI B B,FANG X Q,YE Y,et al.Carbon emissions induced by cropland expansion in Northeast China during the past 300years[J].Science China:Earth Sciences,2014,44(9):1987-1996
[4]吴昊玥,何艳秋,陈柔.中国农业碳排放绩效评价及随机性收敛研究--基于SBM-Undesirable模型与面板单位根检验[J].中国生态农业学报,2017,25(9):1381-1391WU H Y,HE Y Q,CHEN R.Assessment of agricultural carbon emission performance and stochastic convergence in China using SBM-Undesirable model and panel unit root test[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2017,25(9):1381-1391
[5]BOLIN B.Changes of land biota and their importance for the carbon cycle[J].Science,1977,196(4290):613-615
[6]HOUGHTON R A.Changes in terrestrial carbon over the last135 years[M]//HEIMANN M.The Global Carbon Cycle.Berlin,Heidelberg:Springer,1993:139-157
[7]RICHARDS J F,FLINT E P,DANIELS R C.Historic Land Use and Carbon Estimates for South and Southeast Asia:1880-1980[R].Oak Ridge,TN:Oak Ridge National Laboratory,1994
[8]GUO L B,GIFFORD R M.Soil carbon stocks and land use change:A meta analysis[J].Global Change Biology,2002,8(4):345-360
[9]LIU J X,VOGELMANN J E,ZHU Z L,et al.Estimating California ecosystem carbon change using process model and land cover disturbance data:1951-2000[J].Ecological Modelling,2011,222(14):2333-2341
[10]RAVINDRANATH N H,MURTHY I K,CHATURVEDI R K,et al.Carbon forestry economic mitigation potential in India,by land classification[J].Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,2007,12(6):1027-1050
[11]刘学荣,杨琳,王颖,等.基于土地利用变化的东北地区碳排放效应研究[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(2):107-114LIU X R,YANG L,WANG Y,et al.Assessment of carbon emissions based on land use change in Northeast China[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,37(2):107-114
[12]王刚,张华兵,薛菲,等.成都市县域土地利用碳收支与经济发展关系研究[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(7):1170-1182WANG G,ZHANG H B,XUE F,et al.Relations between land use carbon budget and economic development at county level in Chengdu City[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(7):1170-1182
[13]刘慧灵,伍世代,韦素琼,等.基于低碳经济导向的土地利用结构优化研究--以福建省福州市为例[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(6):202-208LIU H L,WU S D,WEI S Q,et al.Optimization research of low-carbon economy oriented land use structure-A case study in Fuzhou City of Fujian Province[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,37(6):202-208
[14]崔盼盼,张艳平,张丽君,等.中国省域隐含碳排放及其驱动机理时空演变分析[J].自然资源学报,2018,33(5):879-892CUI P P,ZHANG Y P,ZHANG L J,et al.Analysis on the spatial and temporal evolution of indirect carbon emissions and its driving mechanism in China[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2018,33(5):879-892
[15]黎孔清,陈俭军,马豆豆.基于STIRPAT和GM(1,1)模型的湖南省农地投入碳排放增长机理及趋势预测[J].长江流域资源与环境,2018,27(2):345-352LI K Q,CHEN J J,MA D D.Growth mechanism and trend forecast of carbon emission from farmland inputs in Hunan Province based on Stirpat and GM(1,1)model[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2018,27(2):345-352
[16]柳荻,胡振通,靳乐山.生态保护补偿的分析框架研究综述[J].生态学报,2018,38(2):380-392LIU D,HU Z T,JIN L S.Review on analytical framework of eco-compensation[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2018,38(2):380-392
[17]王雅敬,谢炳庚,李晓青,等.长株潭经济圈土地利用变化的碳排放量及生态补偿研究[J].生态科学,2017,36(4):160-165WANG Y J,XIE B G,LI X Q,et al.Research on benefit carbon emission and countervail ecological system of Chang-Zhu-Tan land exploit[J].Ecological Science,2017,36(4):160-165
[18]GREEN C.Potential scale-related problems in estimating the costs of CO2 mitigation policies[J].Climatic Change,2000,44(3):331-349
[19]彭文甫,周介铭,徐新良,等.基于土地利用变化的四川省碳排放与碳足迹效应及时空格局[J].生态学报,2016,36(22):7244-7259PENG W F,ZHOU J M,XU X L,et al.Effect of land use changes on the temporal and spatial patterns of carbon emissions and carbon footprints in the Sichuan Province of Western China,from 1990 to 2010[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2016,36(22):7244-7259
[20]方精云,郭兆迪,朴世龙,等.1981-2000年中国陆地植被碳汇的估算[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2007,37(6):804-812FANG J Y,GUO Z D,PIAO S L,et al.Terrestrial vegetation carbon sinks in China,1981-2000[J].Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,2007,37(6):804-812
[21]王秋贤,王登杰,颜晓妹,等.基于脱钩理论的烟台市碳排放效应分析[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(2):313-318WANG Q X,WANG D J,YAN X M,et al.An analysis on carbon emission effects in Yantai City based on decoupling theory[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,35(2):313-318
[22]李颖,黄贤金,甄峰.江苏省区域不同土地利用方式的碳排放效应分析[J].农业工程学报,2008,24(S2):102-107LI Y,HUANG X J,ZHEN F.Effects of land use patterns on carbon emission in Jiangsu Province[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2008,24(S2):102-107
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