湖北省人口—土地—产业城镇化的时空分异与动态耦合分析
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摘要
基于城乡人口、土地与产业发展的内在关系,构建人口、土地与产业城镇化测度指标,综合运用三角模型和动态耦合度模型,分析2009—2016年湖北省人口、土地与产业城镇化的时空分异特征,识别三者城镇化动态耦合关系和演进规律,结果表明:①湖北省人口、土地与产业城镇化分异特征显著,城镇化属于典型的产业带动型,形成以武汉为主中心,以宜昌、襄阳为副中心的产业城镇化发展格局,城镇化水平高的县域在空间上具有集聚特征,其城镇化的"溢出效应"提升周边县域城镇化水平;②湖北省人口、土地与产业城镇化的静态耦合度呈上升式演进趋势,县域人口、土地与产业城镇化优劣差距明显缩小,县域间城镇化发展逐渐呈现均衡化态势;③湖北省人口、土地与产业城镇化的动态耦合度明显低于静态耦合度,由于人口、土地与产业城镇化上升空间的有限性和社会经济转型压力,经济发达县域更易表现出人口、土地与产业动态变化的不一致性。
This paper analyzed the urbanization process of Hubei Province from 2009 to 2016 based on the internal relationship of urban-rural essential productive factors constructed measure indicators of population, land and industry at county level in Hubei Province, explored the spatiotemporal variance characteristics of urbanization of population, land and industry using the triangle model and dynamic coupling model. We identified the evolution rules and dynamic coupling relationships among them. The results showed that: 1) The differentiation of urbanization of population, land and industry was significantly different in Hubei Province during 2009 and 2016. Generally, the urbanization of Hubei Province was a typical industry-oriented urbanization type. A spatial pattern referring to one primary center(Wuhan) and two sub centers(Xiangyang and Yichang) had been formed in industry urbanization. The counties with high urbanization degree were congregated in space, and the urbanization degree of the surrounding counties had been improved due to the overflow effect. 2) There was a growth trend for static coupling degree in the urbanization of population, land and industry during 2009 and 2016. The gap of urbanization degree among different counties was narrowing and an equilibrium status was emerging. 3) The dynamic coupling degree among essential productive factors was significantly less than the static coupling degree. The inconsistency of dynamic changes in the urbanization of population, land and industry was more likely occurred in developed counties due to the limitation of upside potential and the pressure of socio-economic transformation.
This paper analyzed the urbanization process of Hubei Province from 2009 to 2016 based on the internal relationship of urban-rural essential productive factors constructed measure indicators of population, land and industry at county level in Hubei Province, explored the spatiotemporal variance characteristics of urbanization of population, land and industry using the triangle model and dynamic coupling model. We identified the evolution rules and dynamic coupling relationships among them. The results showed that: 1) The differentiation of urbanization of population, land and industry was significantly different in Hubei Province during 2009 and 2016. Generally, the urbanization of Hubei Province was a typical industry-oriented urbanization type. A spatial pattern referring to one primary center(Wuhan) and two sub centers(Xiangyang and Yichang) had been formed in industry urbanization. The counties with high urbanization degree were congregated in space, and the urbanization degree of the surrounding counties had been improved due to the overflow effect. 2) There was a growth trend for static coupling degree in the urbanization of population, land and industry during 2009 and 2016. The gap of urbanization degree among different counties was narrowing and an equilibrium status was emerging. 3) The dynamic coupling degree among essential productive factors was significantly less than the static coupling degree. The inconsistency of dynamic changes in the urbanization of population, land and industry was more likely occurred in developed counties due to the limitation of upside potential and the pressure of socio-economic transformation.
引文
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[23]孙平军,丁四保,修春亮,等.东北地区“人口-经济-空间”城市化协调性研究[J].地理科学,2012,32(4):450-457.
[24]朱凤凯,张凤荣,李灿,等.1993-2008年中国土地与人口城市化协调度及区域差异[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(5):647-656.
[25]刘耀林,李纪伟,侯贺平,等.湖北省城乡建设用地城镇化率及其影响因素[J].地理研究,2014,33(1):132-142.
[26]赵艳,濮励杰,张健,等.基于三角模型的城市土地可持续利用评价:以江苏省无锡市为例[J].经济地理,2011,31(5):810-838.
[27]刘浩,张毅,郑文升.城市土地集约利用与区域城市化的时空耦合协调发展评价:以环渤海地区城市为例[J].地理研究,2011,30(10):1 805-1 817.
[28]熊建新,陈端吕,彭保发,等.洞庭湖区生态承载力系统耦合协调度时空分异[J].地理科学,2014,34(9):1 108-1 116.
[29]戚伟,刘盛和,金浩然.中国户籍人口城镇化率的核算方法与分布格局[J].地理研究,2017,36(4):616-632.
[30]Liu Y S,Li Y H.Revitalize the world’s countryside[J].Nature,2017,548:275-277.
[2]刘彦随,杨忍.中国县域城镇化的空间特征与形成机理[J].地理学报,2012,67(8):1 011-1 020.
[3]Wang X R,Hui C M,Sun J X.Population migration,urbanization and housing prices:Evidence from the cities in China[J].Habitat International,2017,66:49-56.
[4]车冰清,沈正平,陆玉麒,等.江苏省流动人口分布的格局演变及其驱动因素:基于城乡建设用地的探讨[J].人文地理,2017,32(6):80-86.
[5]Kong X S,Liu Y L,Jiang P,et al.A novel framework for rural homestead land transfer under collective ownership in China[J].Land Use Policy,2018,78:138-146.
[6]Liu Y L,Zhang X H,Kong X S,et al.Identifying the relationship between urban land expansion and human activities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,China[J].Applied Geography,2018,94:163-177.
[7]王海军,张彬,刘耀林,等.基于重心-GTWR模型的京津冀城市群城镇扩展格局与驱动力多维解析[J].地理学报,2018,73(6):1 076-1 092.
[8]宋小青,麻战洪,赵国松,等.城市空地:城市化热潮的冷思考[J].地理学报,2018,73(6):1 033-1 048.
[9]杨秀云,袁晓燕.产业结构升级和产业转移中的产业空洞化问题[J].西安交通大学学报:社会科学版,2012,32(2):1-6.
[10]梁鹤年.再谈“城市人”:以人为本的城镇化[J].城市规划,2014,38(9):64-75.
[11]王亚华,袁源,王映力,等.人口城市化与土地城市化耦合发展关系及其机制研究:以江苏省为例[J].地理研究,2017,36(1):149-160.
[12]许芬.中国人口城镇化滞后土地城镇化的根源:基于城乡间要素不平等交换视角的分析[J].城市问题,2016(7):12-17.
[13]周国华,贺艳华.长沙城市土地扩张特征及影响因素[J].地理学报,2006,61(11):1 171-1 180.
[14]吴一凡,刘彦随,李裕瑞.中国人口与土地城镇化时空耦合特征及驱动机制[J].地理学报,2018,73(10):1 865-1 879.
[15]安杰尔·什洛莫.城市星球[M].北京:科学出版社,2015.
[16]Angel S,Parent J,Civco D L,et al.The dimensions of global urban expansion:Estimates and projections for all countries,2000-2050[J].Progress in Planning,2011,75(2):53-107.
[17]方创琳,王德利.中国城市化发展质量的综合测度与提升路径[J].地理研究,2011,30(11):1 931-1 946.
[18]贺三维,邵玺.京津冀地区人口-土地-经济城镇化空间集聚及耦合协调发展研究[J].经济地理,2018,38(1):95-102.
[19]边雪,陈昊宇,曹广忠.基于人口、产业和用地结构关系的城镇化模式类型及演进特征:以长三角地区为例[J].地理研究,2013,32(12):2 281-2 291.
[20]朱江丽,李子联.长三角城市群产业-人口-空间耦合协调发展研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(2):75-82.
[21]方方.京津冀县域人口-土地-产业要素耦合测度及空间分异[J].世界地理研究,2018,27(1):51-59.
[22]周艳,黄贤金,徐国良,等.长三角城市土地扩张与人口增长耦合态势及其驱动机制[J].地理研究,2016,35(2):313-324.
[23]孙平军,丁四保,修春亮,等.东北地区“人口-经济-空间”城市化协调性研究[J].地理科学,2012,32(4):450-457.
[24]朱凤凯,张凤荣,李灿,等.1993-2008年中国土地与人口城市化协调度及区域差异[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(5):647-656.
[25]刘耀林,李纪伟,侯贺平,等.湖北省城乡建设用地城镇化率及其影响因素[J].地理研究,2014,33(1):132-142.
[26]赵艳,濮励杰,张健,等.基于三角模型的城市土地可持续利用评价:以江苏省无锡市为例[J].经济地理,2011,31(5):810-838.
[27]刘浩,张毅,郑文升.城市土地集约利用与区域城市化的时空耦合协调发展评价:以环渤海地区城市为例[J].地理研究,2011,30(10):1 805-1 817.
[28]熊建新,陈端吕,彭保发,等.洞庭湖区生态承载力系统耦合协调度时空分异[J].地理科学,2014,34(9):1 108-1 116.
[29]戚伟,刘盛和,金浩然.中国户籍人口城镇化率的核算方法与分布格局[J].地理研究,2017,36(4):616-632.
[30]Liu Y S,Li Y H.Revitalize the world’s countryside[J].Nature,2017,548:275-277.