基于马尔柯夫链预测考研产品市场占有率
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摘要
在考研产品市场上,欲考研人群对某种考研产品的市场占有率的动态转移变化过程适合马尔柯夫预测模型.本文针对欲考研人群对考研产品的使用情况进行网络问卷调查,共收回有效问卷38182份,利用随机抽样的1000份问卷数据进行预测线下面授考研产品,线上PC端考研产品和线上移动端考研产品的市场占有率,结果表明:多年后,线下面授考研产品市场占有率将稳定在12%,线上PC端考研产品市场占有率将稳定在14%,线上移动端考研产品市场占有率将稳定在74%.通过预测使考研培训机构了解各种考研产品的市场竞争力,采取相应的举措来提高产品的市场占有率.
The dynamic transfer and change of the market share of a certain product was suitable for Markov prediction model in the postgraduate entrance examination product market.In this paper,network questionnaires were distributed to investigate the fact that pre-graduate students used mobile terminal studying product.38182 effective questionnaires were received,the market share of the three kinds of products was predicted by using the random sampling data of 1000 questionnaires.It showed that:The market share of offline face-to-face postgraduate entrance examination products will be stable at 12%.The market share of online PC products will be stable at 14%.The market share of online mobile postgraduate entrance examination product will be stable at 74% after many years.The research training institute can understand the market competition of various products by the way of forecasting and taking corresponding measures to improve the market share of products.
The dynamic transfer and change of the market share of a certain product was suitable for Markov prediction model in the postgraduate entrance examination product market.In this paper,network questionnaires were distributed to investigate the fact that pre-graduate students used mobile terminal studying product.38182 effective questionnaires were received,the market share of the three kinds of products was predicted by using the random sampling data of 1000 questionnaires.It showed that:The market share of offline face-to-face postgraduate entrance examination products will be stable at 12%.The market share of online PC products will be stable at 14%.The market share of online mobile postgraduate entrance examination product will be stable at 74% after many years.The research training institute can understand the market competition of various products by the way of forecasting and taking corresponding measures to improve the market share of products.
引文
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[6]铁钰,郑超,代长义,等.基于灰色马尔科夫模型的中国女子竞走成绩的预测[J].数学的实践与认识,2015,45(3):187-194.
[7]张家善,林晓群.基于马尔科夫链的港口吞吐量区间预测模型研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2016,46(15):159-164.
[8]李海涛.运用马尔科夫预测法预测股票价格[J].统计与决策,2002(5):25-26.
[9]屈晓阳.基于马尔科夫链对股票价格预测[J].时代金融,2017(8):14.
[10]袁以美.马尔科夫模型在汽车市场预测中的应用[J].企业经济,2008(3):112-114.
[2]夏乐天,朱元挨·马尔可夫链预测方法的统计试验研究[J].水利学报,2007(s1):377-383.
[3]欧庆云.马尔柯夫链转移矩阵在产品市场占有率预测中的应用[J].山西统计,1997(5):20-22.
[4]李宝仁.产品市场占有率的马尔柯夫预测[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版),2000,15(5):57-59.
[5]靳胜福,戴蓬军.基于马尔柯夫模型的乳品企业市场占有率预测[J].中国商论,2011(26):26-27.
[6]铁钰,郑超,代长义,等.基于灰色马尔科夫模型的中国女子竞走成绩的预测[J].数学的实践与认识,2015,45(3):187-194.
[7]张家善,林晓群.基于马尔科夫链的港口吞吐量区间预测模型研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2016,46(15):159-164.
[8]李海涛.运用马尔科夫预测法预测股票价格[J].统计与决策,2002(5):25-26.
[9]屈晓阳.基于马尔科夫链对股票价格预测[J].时代金融,2017(8):14.
[10]袁以美.马尔科夫模型在汽车市场预测中的应用[J].企业经济,2008(3):112-114.