基于“湖泊效应”的长江经济带城市空间分异研究
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摘要
在经济新常态背景下,如何有效地制定政策,引导长江经济带依托黄金水道实现可持续发展,具有极其重要的全局性意义。本文将长江经济带地级及以上城市的发展与长江水系的地理特征相结合,考察长江水系地理特征对于长江经济带地级及以上城市发展的促进作用。首先构建长江经济带城市发展指标体系,以2003—2015长江经济带地级及以上城市面板数据为基础,采用主客观结合的方法,评价长江经济带地级及以上城市经济发展、社会状况、生态环境,进行综合实力测算。在评价结果的基础上,结合长江经济带城市地理分布特征对长江进行缓冲分析,测算长江经济带城市群的密度曲线及趋势线,并基于Bass模型,考察长江干流是否对长江经济带地级及以上城市具有"湖泊效应",长江经济带地级及以上城市发展是否具有圈层结构。主要得到以下结论:(1)长江上、中、下游发展水平呈逆向阶梯状;(2)长江干流对长江经济带地级及以上城市的城市建设、经济发展、社会状态、生态环境及综合实力各方面均存在非常明显的"湖泊效应";(3)根据"湖泊效应"的强弱,可以将长江经济带地级及以上城市划分为环江区、离江区、远江区等三层圈层结构,其发展水平递减,离江区仍有较大发展潜力。
The‘Yangtze River Economic Zone'is one of the three major strategies of China. Under the ‘new normal'economy background,how to formulate effective policies to guide the Yangtze River Economic Zone to achieve sustainable development by relying on the golden water channel has extremely important global significance. In this paper,we combine the development of the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone with the geographical features of the Yangtze River to study the catalytic role of the geographical features of the Yangtze River in the development of the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone. First,we construct the Yangtze River Economic Zone index system. Based on panel data of the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone in 2003-2015,we evaluate the economic development,social situation and ecological environment of the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone with the combination of subjective and objective methods,and carry out the comprehensive strength calculation. Combining the evaluation results with the urban geography distribution characteristics of the Yangtze River,we measure the density curve and the trend line of the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone. Based on the Bass Model,we try to study if the Yangtze River has a ‘lake effect'on the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone and if the development of the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone has a circle structure. The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The development level of cities in the upstream,midstream and downstream of the Yangtze River takes on a reverse ladder status.(2)‘Lake effect'plays a really good role in combining the unique geographical features of the Yangtze River and the development of the cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone to carry out research.The conclusion shows that the mainstream of the Yangtze River has a significant ‘lake effect'on the urban construction,economic development,social situation,ecological environment and comprehensive strength of the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone.(3)According to the strength of the‘lake effect',the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone can be divided into a three layers circle structure. They are Huanjiang District,Jinjiang District and Yuanjiang District,with a decreasing development level,and there is still great potential for the development of Jinjiang District.
The‘Yangtze River Economic Zone'is one of the three major strategies of China. Under the ‘new normal'economy background,how to formulate effective policies to guide the Yangtze River Economic Zone to achieve sustainable development by relying on the golden water channel has extremely important global significance. In this paper,we combine the development of the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone with the geographical features of the Yangtze River to study the catalytic role of the geographical features of the Yangtze River in the development of the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone. First,we construct the Yangtze River Economic Zone index system. Based on panel data of the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone in 2003-2015,we evaluate the economic development,social situation and ecological environment of the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone with the combination of subjective and objective methods,and carry out the comprehensive strength calculation. Combining the evaluation results with the urban geography distribution characteristics of the Yangtze River,we measure the density curve and the trend line of the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone. Based on the Bass Model,we try to study if the Yangtze River has a ‘lake effect'on the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone and if the development of the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone has a circle structure. The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The development level of cities in the upstream,midstream and downstream of the Yangtze River takes on a reverse ladder status.(2)‘Lake effect'plays a really good role in combining the unique geographical features of the Yangtze River and the development of the cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone to carry out research.The conclusion shows that the mainstream of the Yangtze River has a significant ‘lake effect'on the urban construction,economic development,social situation,ecological environment and comprehensive strength of the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone.(3)According to the strength of the‘lake effect',the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone can be divided into a three layers circle structure. They are Huanjiang District,Jinjiang District and Yuanjiang District,with a decreasing development level,and there is still great potential for the development of Jinjiang District.
引文
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[5]郑德高,陈勇,季辰晔.长江经济带区域经济空间重塑研究[J].城市规划学刊,2015(3):78-85.[ZHENG Degao,CHEN Yong,JI Chenye.Regional economic space remodeling of the Yangtze River Economic Belt[J].Urban planning forum,2015(3):78-85.]
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[8]孟德友,李小建,陆玉麒,等.长江三角洲地区城市经济发展水平空间格局演变[J].经济地理,2014,34(2):50-57.[MENG Deyou,LI Xiaojian,LU Yuqi,et al.Evolvement of spatial pattern of urban economic development in Yangtze River Delta[J].Economic geography,2014,34(2):50-57.]
[9]杨晴青,朱媛媛,陈佳,等.长江中游城市群城市人居环境竞争力格局及优化路径[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(8):142-150.[YANG Qingqing,ZHU Yuanyuan,CHEN Jia,et al.Competitive landscape and optimized path of urban human settlement at urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River[J].China population,resources and environment,2017,27(8):142-150.]
[10]宋建波,武春友.城市化与生态环境协调发展评价研究——以长江三角洲城市群为例[J].中国软科学,2010(2):78-87.[SONG Jianbo,WU Chunyou.The study on evaluation of coordinated development between urbanization and ecological environment among city cluster in the Yangtze River Delta[J].China soft science,2010(2):78-87.]
[11]石忆邵,张洪武.长江三角洲城市综合竞争力与区域优势分析[J].城市规划学刊,2002(1):17-21.[SHI Yishao,ZHANG Hongwu.An analysis of urban comprehensive competitiveness and regional advantages of the Yangtze River Delta[J].Urban planning forum,2002(1):17-21.]
[12]马静,李小帆,张红.长江中游城市群城市发展质量系统协调性研究[J].经济地理,2016,36(7):53-61.[MA Jing,LI Xiaofan,ZHANG Hong.The coordination of urban development quality system in urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Economic geography,2016,36(7):53-61.]
[13]卢丽文,宋德勇,李小帆.长江经济带城市发展绿色效率研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(6):35-42.[LU Liwen,SONG Deyong,LI Xiaofan.Green efficiency of urban development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt[J].China population,resources and environment,2016,26(6):35-42.]
[14]ELLICOTT A.Miscellaneous observations relative to the western parts of Pennsylvania,particularly those in the neighbourhood of Lake Erie[J].Transactions of the American Philosophical Society,1977(4):224-230.
[15]戴树桂,陈慰国.湖泊水环境中湖流及其风效应研究[J].南开大学学报(自然科学版),1998(3):22-26.[DAI Shugui,CHEN Weiguo.Study on the flow speed with wind effect in a lake aquatic environment[J].Journal of Nankai University(natural science edition),1998(3):22-26.]
[16]刘耀彬,王鑫磊,刘玲.基于“湖泊效应”的城市经济影响区空间分异模型及应用——以环鄱阳湖区为例[J].地理科学,2012,32(6):680-685.[LIU Yaobin,WANG Xinlei,LIU Ling.The spatial distribution model of urban economic potential zones and its application based on the hypothesis of‘lake effect’:the area around Poyang Lake as a case[J].Scientia geographica sinica,2012,32(6):680-685.]
[17]狄乾斌,韩帅帅.环渤海地区城市经济影响区的空间分异研究——基于“湖泊效应”和BASS模型[J].地理科学,2015,35(6):690-697.[DI Ganbin,HAN Shuaishuai.The spatial distribution of the urban economic effect region of the Bohai Rim:based on the‘lake effect’and Bass Model[J].Scientia geographica sinica,2015,35(6):690-697.]
[18]孙才志,孙冰,郭建科,等.基于“湖泊效应”模型的辽宁省海岸带陆地范围测度及其时空分异分析[J].地理科学,2015,35(7):805-813.[SUN Caizhi,SUN Bing,GUO Jianke,et al.Measurement of land range and spatial-temporal difference analysis of coastal zone in Liaoning Province based on the‘lake effect’model[J].Scientia geographica sinica,2015,35(7):805-813.]
[19]SAATY T L.Decision making with analytic hierarchy process[J].International journal of services sciences,2008,1(1):83-98.
[20]张建清,张岚,王嵩,等.基于DPSIR-DEA模型的区域可持续发展效率测度及分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017(11):1-9.[ZHANG Jianqing,ZHANG Lan,WANG Song,et al.Study on regional sustainable development efficiency measurement and influencing factors:based on DPSIR-DEA Model[J].China population,resources and environment,2017,27(11):1-9.]
[21]DIAKOULAKI D,MAVROTAS G,PAPAYANNAKIS L.Determining objective weights in multiple criteria problems:the critic method[J].Computers&operations research,1995,22(7):763-770.
[22]方昶,刘心报,裴军,等.基于顺序启发式进化算法的多目标一维下料问题[J].中国管理科学,2012(S1):94-100.[FANG Chang,LIU Xinbao,PEI Jun,et al.Multi-objective on onedimensional cutting problem based on sequential heuristic procedure evolutionary algorithm[J].Chinese journal of management science,2012(S1):94-100.]
[23]MANDLER E,SCHMANN J.Combining the classification results of independent classifiers based on the Dempster/Shafer theory of evidence[J].Machine intelligence&pattern recognition,1988(7):381-393.
[24]ALANI A,DERICHE M.A new technique for combining multiple classifiers using the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence[J].Journal of artificial intelligence research,2002,17(1):333-361.
[25]FRANK M B.A new product growth for model consumer durables[J].Management science,1969,15(5):215-227.
[26]宋小冬,钮心毅.地理信息系统实习教程[M].第三版.北京:科学出版社,2013:169-180.[SONG Xiaodong,NIU Xinyi.GIS tutorial practice[M].3rd ed.Beijing:Science Press,2013:169-180.]
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