WOFOST模型对河南省冬小麦模拟的适用性分析
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摘要
为进一步研究WOFOST模型在河南省冬麦区的适用性,以河南省30个农业气象观测站1991—2014年冬小麦观测资料、历史气象资料和土壤资料为依据,对WOFOST模型进行逐站调参和验证,分别建立了30个站的冬小麦模型参数。其中1991—2010年为模型调参年份,2011—2014年为模型验证年份。各站开花期和成熟期调参模拟的归一化均方根误差NRMSE分别小于5%和3%,验证误差分别为3.7%和2.9%。除潢川和固始外,模型对其余各站产量模拟的归一化均方根误差NRMSE全省各站均小于20.0%,验证误差全省平均为15.2%,大部分站点观测值和模拟值相关系数r通过了显著检验。利用调参后的模型模拟2011—2014年冬小麦生长动态变化可知,模拟地上部总干物重与实测单株干物重、模拟LAI与单株叶面积有较一致的变化趋势,拟合度较高。因此,WOFOST模型对河南省冬小麦主要发育阶段、产量及干物质积累模拟能力较强,具有良好的应用前景。
To test applicability of WOFOST model in winter wheat regions in Henan province,this model was calibrated and validated based on the observed winter wheat data,weather and soil data of 1991—2014 in 30 agrometeorological observation stations.The model was calibrated with observed data of 1991—2010 and validated with 2011—2014.The results showed that the normalized root mean square errors(NRMSE) of calibration for flowering and maturity dates were less than 5% and 3%respectively.The NRMSEs of validation were 3.7% and 2.9%respectively.The NRMSE for grain yield were less than 20% for calibration period in all stations except Huangchuan and Gushi,and the average NRMSE of all stations was 15.2% for validation period.The correlation coefficient of observed data and simulated data were significance(α=0.05) in most stations.The growth dynamic change of winter wheat was simulated from 2011 to 2014 with calibration model.The simulated total biomass with top weight pre plant and leaf index pre plant consistent with the trends.The WOFOST model has strong simulation ability for growth stage,yield and biomass accumulation,and it would step in research and application.
To test applicability of WOFOST model in winter wheat regions in Henan province,this model was calibrated and validated based on the observed winter wheat data,weather and soil data of 1991—2014 in 30 agrometeorological observation stations.The model was calibrated with observed data of 1991—2010 and validated with 2011—2014.The results showed that the normalized root mean square errors(NRMSE) of calibration for flowering and maturity dates were less than 5% and 3%respectively.The NRMSEs of validation were 3.7% and 2.9%respectively.The NRMSE for grain yield were less than 20% for calibration period in all stations except Huangchuan and Gushi,and the average NRMSE of all stations was 15.2% for validation period.The correlation coefficient of observed data and simulated data were significance(α=0.05) in most stations.The growth dynamic change of winter wheat was simulated from 2011 to 2014 with calibration model.The simulated total biomass with top weight pre plant and leaf index pre plant consistent with the trends.The WOFOST model has strong simulation ability for growth stage,yield and biomass accumulation,and it would step in research and application.
引文
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[21]朱津辉,郭建茂,毛留喜.基于模型的河北省保定市冬小麦最佳灌溉方案研究[J].气象,2014,40(11):1398-1407.
[22]陈振林,张建平,王春乙,等.应用 WOFOST 模型模拟低温与干旱对玉米产量的综合影响[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(4):440-442.
[23]张雪芬,余卫东,王春乙,等.WOFOST模型在冬小麦晚霜冻害评估中的应用[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(6):337-341.
[24]栾庆祖,叶彩华,莫志鸿,等.基于WOFOST模型的玉米干旱损失评估:以北京为例[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(3):311-316.
[25]张建平,王春乙,赵艳霞,等.基于作物模型的低温冷害对我国东北三省玉米产量影响评估[J].生态学报,2012,32(13):4132-4138.
[26]张建平,赵艳霞,王春乙,等.不同气候情景下中国东北与华北作物产量变化趋势模拟[J].干旱地区农业研究,2012,30(3):262-266.
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[28]张雪芬,余卫东,王春乙.基于作物模型灾损识别的黄淮区域冬小麦晚霜冻风险评估[J].高原气象,2012,31(1):277-284.
[29]马玉平,王石立,张黎,等.针对华北小麦越冬的WOFOST模型改进[J].中国农业气象,2005,26(3):145-149.
[30]江敏,石春林,薛昌颖,等.A2和B2排放情景下气候变化对福建省水稻生产的阶段性影响[J].气象与环境科学,2015,38(4):38-46.
[31]王健林.现代农业气象业务[M].北京:气象出版社,2010:49-51.
[32]Angstr?m A.Solar and terrestrial radiation[J].Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society,1924,50:121-125.
[33]张铁楠.WOFOST模型在东北春麦区生产中的应用研究[D].哈尔滨:东北农业大学,2014.
[2]薛昌颖.基于作物模型的河南省旱稻干旱风险评估[J].气象与环境科学,2016,39(2):126-131.
[3]谢云,James R K.国外作物生长模型发展综述[J].作物学报,2002,28(2):190-195.
[4]谢文霞,王光火,张奇春.WOFOST模型的发展及应用[J].土壤通报,2006,37(1):154-158.
[5]Salo T J,Palosuo T,Kersebaum K C,et al.Comparing the performance of 11 crop simulation models in predicting yield response to nitrogen fertilization[J].Journal of Agricultural Science,2016,154(7):1218-1240.
[6]Bouma J,Brecht A K.Land qualities in spaceand time,proceedings of a symposium organized by the internationalsociety of soil science(ISSS) [C].Wageningen:the Netherlands, 1989:209-215.
[7]Eweys O A,Elwan A A,Borham T I.Integrating WOFOST and Noah LSM for modeling maize production and soil moisture with sensitivity analysis,in the east of The Netherlands[J].Field Crops Research,2017,210:147-161.
[8]Lanen H A J,Diepen C A,Reinds G J ,et al.Physical land evaluation methods and GIS to explore the crop growth potential and its effects with in the EUROPE communities[J].Agricultural Systems,1992,39:307-328.
[9]邬定荣,欧阳竹,赵晓敏,等.作物生长模型WOFOST在华北平原的适用性研究[J].植物生态学报,2003,27(5):594-602.
[10]张素青,张建涛,李继蕊,等.WOFOST模型在河南省夏玉米主产区的校准与验证[J].河南农业科学,2014,43(8):152-156.
[11]谢文霞,严力蛟,王光火.运用WOFOST模型对浙江水稻潜在生长过程的模拟与验证[J].中国水稻科学,2006,20(3):319-323.
[12]张铁楠,许为政,魏湜,等.基于WOFOST模型的东北地区春小麦水分平衡模拟与验证[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(4):45-51.
[13]胡雪琼,徐梦莹,买苗,等.WOFOST 模型对于云南烤烟的适用性研究[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2015,7(5):451-457.
[14]高永刚,那济海,顾红,等.黑龙江省马铃薯气候生产力特征及区划[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(3):275-280.
[15]高永刚,南瑞,顾红,等.黑龙江省甜菜气候生产力模拟和种植气候区划[J].生态学杂志,2009,28(1):27-31.
[16]杜春英,李秀芬,王晨轶,等.基于WOFOST模型的黑龙江省水稻产量动态预报研究[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(24):15093-15095.
[17]李秀芬,马树庆,宫丽娟,等.基于WOFOST的东北地区玉米生育期气象条件适宜度评价[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(1):43-49.
[18]朱玉洁,杨霏云,刘伟昌,等.利用作物模型提取小麦干热风灾损方法探讨[J].气象与环境科学,2013,36(2):10-14.
[19]李秀芬,王育光,季生太,等.作物长势监测系统(CGMS)在黑龙江省的应用[J].中国农业气象,2005,26(3):155-157.
[20]王涛,吕昌河,于伯华.基于WOFOST 模型的京津冀地区冬小麦生产潜力评价[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(3):475-487.
[21]朱津辉,郭建茂,毛留喜.基于模型的河北省保定市冬小麦最佳灌溉方案研究[J].气象,2014,40(11):1398-1407.
[22]陈振林,张建平,王春乙,等.应用 WOFOST 模型模拟低温与干旱对玉米产量的综合影响[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(4):440-442.
[23]张雪芬,余卫东,王春乙,等.WOFOST模型在冬小麦晚霜冻害评估中的应用[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(6):337-341.
[24]栾庆祖,叶彩华,莫志鸿,等.基于WOFOST模型的玉米干旱损失评估:以北京为例[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(3):311-316.
[25]张建平,王春乙,赵艳霞,等.基于作物模型的低温冷害对我国东北三省玉米产量影响评估[J].生态学报,2012,32(13):4132-4138.
[26]张建平,赵艳霞,王春乙,等.不同气候情景下中国东北与华北作物产量变化趋势模拟[J].干旱地区农业研究,2012,30(3):262-266.
[27]王小平.气候变化背景下黄淮海地区冬小麦气候生产潜力研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,2011.
[28]张雪芬,余卫东,王春乙.基于作物模型灾损识别的黄淮区域冬小麦晚霜冻风险评估[J].高原气象,2012,31(1):277-284.
[29]马玉平,王石立,张黎,等.针对华北小麦越冬的WOFOST模型改进[J].中国农业气象,2005,26(3):145-149.
[30]江敏,石春林,薛昌颖,等.A2和B2排放情景下气候变化对福建省水稻生产的阶段性影响[J].气象与环境科学,2015,38(4):38-46.
[31]王健林.现代农业气象业务[M].北京:气象出版社,2010:49-51.
[32]Angstr?m A.Solar and terrestrial radiation[J].Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society,1924,50:121-125.
[33]张铁楠.WOFOST模型在东北春麦区生产中的应用研究[D].哈尔滨:东北农业大学,2014.