中国近海台风强度与水产品产量相关性分析
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摘要
台风会对海洋水体及生态系统产生剧烈扰动,从而对海洋渔业产生影响。从讨论其影响方式和程度入手,首先对我国近海的台风风速与海洋水产品产量数据分别进行抽象建模,得到信号序列;然后利用希尔伯特-黄变换分别进行变换分解,得到不同时间尺度下的信息分量,并对不同时间尺度的两类信号相关度进行分析。结果表明,台风最大风速会对未来一年内的天然海水产品产量产生显著的负向影响;而对于该产量的中长期变化趋势影响并不显著。
Typhoon has an impact on marine fisheries because of their severe turbulence motion to ocean waters bodies and ecosystems, thus the way and degree of the influence are discussed. Firstly, to get the signal sequences, the mathematical model of typhoon wind speed and marine aquatic product output data in the coastal waters of China are established respectively. Secondly, the components of signal at different time scales are obtained by Hilbert-Huang transform. Lastly, the correlations of two kinds of signal components at different time scales are discussed. The results show that, the maximum wind speed of typhoon will have a significant negative impact on the natural production of marine aquatic products over the next year while its impact on the medium-term or longterm change trend will not be significant.
Typhoon has an impact on marine fisheries because of their severe turbulence motion to ocean waters bodies and ecosystems, thus the way and degree of the influence are discussed. Firstly, to get the signal sequences, the mathematical model of typhoon wind speed and marine aquatic product output data in the coastal waters of China are established respectively. Secondly, the components of signal at different time scales are obtained by Hilbert-Huang transform. Lastly, the correlations of two kinds of signal components at different time scales are discussed. The results show that, the maximum wind speed of typhoon will have a significant negative impact on the natural production of marine aquatic products over the next year while its impact on the medium-term or longterm change trend will not be significant.
引文
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[4]邵传青,张芳,易立新.沿海城市自然灾害脆弱性评价研究——以天津滨海新区为例[J].防灾科技学院学报,2008,10(4):88-92.
[5]高文.福建省海洋捕捞连续12年增产[J].中国水产,1991(8).
[6]刘超,杨卫,王权,等.基于模糊数学的渔业台风灾害风险区划研究[J].安全与环境学报,2010,10(5):208-212.
[7]叶海军,唐丹玲,潘刚.强台风鲶鱼对中国南海浮游植物及渔业资源的影响[J].生态科学,2014,33(4):657-663.
[8]Small R J,Deszoeke S P,Xie S P,et al.Air-sea interaction over ocean fronts and eddies[J].Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans,2008,45(3-4):0-319.
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[10]Tokinaga H,Tanimoto Y,Xie S P,et al.Ocean Frontal Effects on the Vertical Development of Clouds over the Western North Pacific:In Situ and Satellite Observations[J].Journal of Climate,2009,2(16):4241.
[11]Xie S P,Liu Q,Liu Q,et al.Long-range effects of the Hawaiian Islands on the Pacific Ocean-atmosphere system[J].Science,2001,292(5524):2057-2060.
[12]Frenger I,Gruber N,Knutti R,et al.Imprint of Southern Ocean eddies on winds,clouds and rainfall[J].Nature Geoscience,2013,6(8):608-612.
[13]陈兴芳,晁淑懿.台风活动的气候突变[J].热带气象学报,1997(2):97-104.
[14]中国渔业统计年鉴[M].中国农业出版社,2005.
[15]中国渔业统计年鉴[M].中国农业出版社,2018.
[16]Yu H,Lu Y,Chen P Y,et al.Intensity change characteristics of tropical cyclones in the western north pacific as revealed by three different datasets[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2012,18(2):119-126.
[17]Barcikowska M,Feser F,Von S H.Usability of Best Track Data in Climate Statistics in the We stern North Pacific[J].Monthly Weather Review,2012,140(9):2818-2830.
[18]Ying M,Zhang W,Yu H,et al.An Overview of the China Meteorological Administration Tropical Cyclone Database[J].Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology,2014,31(2):287-301.
[19]Macqueen J.Some Methods for Classification and Analysis of MultiVariate Observations[C].Proc.of,Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability,1967:281-297.
[20]张凤菊,刘晓娟,赵丽平,等.数据差异显著性检验[J].农机使用与维修,2012(4):51-52.
[21]Huang N E,Shen Z,Long S R,et al.The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and nonstationary time se ries analysis[J].Proceedings Mathematical Physical&Engineering Sciences,1998,454(1971):903-995.