怒江流域下游地区气象与水文干旱特征研究
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摘要
以怒江下游勐波罗河流域为例,利用周边气象站点年的月降水量、月气温和流域出口水文站月径流数据,计算气象干旱指标标准化降水指数(SPI)、标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)和径流干旱指数(SDI),分析该地区1966—2013年间不同参考期(12个月、6个月和3个月)的气象和水文干旱变化过程,揭示流域水文干旱与气象干旱发生的关联。研究结果表明,自21世纪初期以来,流域各参考期干旱指数呈现减少趋势(干旱增加),尤其是SPEI-6M (参考期为6个月的SPEI)和SPEI-3M (参考期为3个月的SPEI)。研究区气象与径流干旱均具有多尺度周期性特征:在20世纪90年代中期之后,25～30年大尺度周期的等值线中心逐渐下移,时间尺度缩短为10～15年。进入21世纪以来,径流干旱在25年以上的大尺度上演变为减弱的干旱期,在10～15年中尺度上则处于由干旱向微湿润变化的过渡期。径流干旱与气象干旱关系密切,通过气象干旱指数SPEI-6M,可以较好地预测年径流干旱变化程度。
Taken Mengboluo River, the major tributary in the lower reaches of Nu River as a case, the standard precipitation index(SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) and the runoff drought index(SDI) were employed to analyse the change processes of meteorological and hydrological drought based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data of the surrounding meteorological stations from 1966 to 2013, and the monthly runoff of the outlet of the river. The drought indexes value in three reference periods(12 months, 6 months and 3 months) were calculated for each indexes, and the correlation between meteorological and hydrological drought in the basin were also analysed. The results show that there were increasing drought trend,especially, that represented by SPEI-6 M and SPEI-3 M since 2000 s; the drought occurred with multi-scale periodic characteristics. After the mid-90 s, the large-scale 25–30 years periodicity gradually moved down to the 10–15 years periodicity. After 2000 s, the runoff drought has changed into a weakened drought period over 25 years; but on the mesoscale periodicity with 10–15 years, it is in a transition period from drought to semi humid. Runoff drought is closely related to meteorological drought. Meteorological drought index SPEI-6 M could be used to predict annual runoff drought.
Taken Mengboluo River, the major tributary in the lower reaches of Nu River as a case, the standard precipitation index(SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) and the runoff drought index(SDI) were employed to analyse the change processes of meteorological and hydrological drought based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data of the surrounding meteorological stations from 1966 to 2013, and the monthly runoff of the outlet of the river. The drought indexes value in three reference periods(12 months, 6 months and 3 months) were calculated for each indexes, and the correlation between meteorological and hydrological drought in the basin were also analysed. The results show that there were increasing drought trend,especially, that represented by SPEI-6 M and SPEI-3 M since 2000 s; the drought occurred with multi-scale periodic characteristics. After the mid-90 s, the large-scale 25–30 years periodicity gradually moved down to the 10–15 years periodicity. After 2000 s, the runoff drought has changed into a weakened drought period over 25 years; but on the mesoscale periodicity with 10–15 years, it is in a transition period from drought to semi humid. Runoff drought is closely related to meteorological drought. Meteorological drought index SPEI-6 M could be used to predict annual runoff drought.
引文
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[2]Dai A G.Drought under global warming:a review.Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews:Climate Change,2010,2(1):45-65
[3]李鹏飞,冯瑶,赵昕奕.2002-2011年华北平原北部农田缺水时空分布特征研究.北京大学学报(自然科学版),2015,51(6):1111-1118
[4]李柏贞,周广胜.干旱指标研究进展.生态学报,2014,34(5):1043-1052
[5]Dai A G.Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models.Nature Climate Change,2013,3(1):52-58
[6]Vicente-Serrano S M,Beguería S,López-Moreno J I.A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index.Journal of Climate,2010,23(7):1696-1718
[7]Sharma T C,Panu U S.Modeling of hydrological drought durations and magnitudes:experiences on Canadian streamflows.Journal of Hydrology:Regional Studies,2014,1:92-106
[8]Tsakiris G,Nalbantis I,Vangelis H,et al.A systembased paradigm of drought analysis for operational management.Water Resources Management,2013,27(15):5281-5297
[9]贺晋云,张明军,王鹏,等.近50年西南地区极端干旱气候变化特征.地理学报,2011,66(9):1179-1190
[10]Becker A,Bugmann H.Global change and mountain regions:the mountain research initiative[R].Stockholm:IGBP Secretariat,2001
[11]He D M,Wu R D,Feng Y,et al.China’s transboundary waters:new paradigms for water and ecological security through applied ecology.Journal of Applied Ecology,2014,51(5):1159-1168
[12]Giang P Q,Toshiki K,Kunikane S,et al.Climate change challenges transboundary water resources management:drawing from the case of Vietnam//3rd International Conference on Chemical,Biological and Environment Sciences(ICCEBS’2013).Kuala Lumpur,2013:48-52
[13]刘新有,何大明.怒江流域悬移质输沙时空分布特征及变化趋势.地理学报,2013,68(3):365-371
[14]樊辉,何大明.怒江流域气候特征及其变化趋势.地理学报,2012,67(5):621-630
[15]徐娟.近50年云南省怒江、澜沧江流域气象干旱研究.北京大学学报(自然科学版),2017,53(5):964-972
[16]中国河湖大典编纂委员会.中国河湖大典:西南诸河卷.北京:中国水利水电出版社,2014:350
[17]蒋国安.保山年鉴.昆明:云南民族出版社,2006
[18]李明三,刘世胤.临沧地区志.北京:北京燕山出版社,2004
[19]李斌,李丽娟,李海滨,等.澜沧江流域干旱变化的时空特征.农业工程学报,2011,27(5):87-92
[20]Metzger M J,Bunce R G H,Jongman R H G,et al.Ahigh-resolution bioclimate map of the world:a unifying framework for global biodiversity research and monitoring.Global Ecology and Biogeography,2012,22(5):630-638
[21]WMO.Standardized Precipitation Index User Guide[R].Geneva:World Meteorological Organization,2012
[22]何福力,胡彩虹,王纪军,等.基于标准化降水径流指数的黄河流域近50年气象水文干旱演变分析.地理与地理信息科学,2015,31(3):69-75
[23]Rad A M,Khalili D,Kamgar-Haghighi A A,et al.Assessment of seasonal characteristics of streamflow droughts under semiarid conditions.Natural Hazards,2016,82(3):1541-1564
[24]Nalbantis I,Tsakiris G.Assessment of hydrological drought revisited.Water Resour Manage,2009,23(5):881-897
[25]Patel N R,Choprab P,Dadhwal V K.Analyzing spatial patterns of meteorological drought using standardized precipitation index.Meteorological Applications,2007,14:329-336
[26]Tigkas D,Vangelis H,Tsakiris G.Drought and climatic change impact on streamflow in small watersheds.Science of the Total Environment,2012,440:33-41
[27]史本林,朱新玉,胡云川,等.基于SPEI指数的近53年河南省干旱时空变化特征.地理研究,2015,34(8):1547-1558
[28]Soumyashri R,Nagraj S P.Drought analysis based on Streamflow Drought Index(SDI)in Bhima sub-basin.International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Applications,2016,2(3):154-159
[29]Kendall M,Gibbons J D.Rank correlation methods.5th ed.London:Oxford University Press,1990
[30]刘笑彤,蔡运龙.基于小波分析的径流特性和影响因素多尺度分析--以通天河为例.北京大学学报(自然科学版),2014,50(3):549-556
[31]Figliola A,Seerano E.Analysis of physiological time series using wavelet transform.IEEE Engineering in Medicine And Biology,1997,16(3):74-79
[32]张彦龙,刘普幸,王允.基于干旱指数的宁夏干旱时空变化特征及其Morlet小波分析.生态学杂志,2015,34(8):2373-2380
[33]孙永罡,白人海,谢安.中国东北地区干旱趋势的年代际变化.北京大学学报(自然科学版),2004,40(5):806-813
[34]蔺秋生,范北林,黄莉.宜昌水文站年径流量演变多时间尺度分析.长江科学院院报,2009,26(4):1-3
[35]张雷,王杰,黄英,等.1961-2010年云南省基于SPEI的干旱变化特征分析.气象与环境学报,2015,31(5):141-146
[36]刘瑜,赵尔旭,黄玮,等.云南近46年降水与气温变化趋势的特征分析.灾害学,2010,25(1):39-44