基于水生态足迹的山东省水资源利用与经济发展分析
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摘要
为了研究水资源利用情况与经济增长的协调性,提出了一种考虑不同受纳水体的水生态足迹计算方法,并以此计算了山东省2003—2015年水量与水质生态足迹,构建了宏观方面的协调发展脱钩评价模型与微观方面的协调度理论,对水资源消耗与经济增长之间的协调关系进行评价.结果表明山东省水生态足迹总体呈现波动上升趋势,水量生态足迹显示出明显的农业主导型;水质生态足迹计算中,地表与地下水质生态足迹比例约为3∶4;地表水质生态足迹中,2003—2009年硝态氮为决定性污染物,2010—2015年总磷为决定性污染物;地下水质生态足迹则表现为硝态氮主导.人均GDP增长与水生态足迹由弱脱钩的初级协调向强脱钩的中级协调转变,初步说明山东省水资源与经济的协调发展呈现改善趋势.
To study the coordination of water resources utilization and economic growth,a calculating method of water ecological footprint was put forward by considering different receptive water bodies.This method was used to calculate water yield and ecological footprint of water quality of Shandong Province in 2003—2015. Macro-level coordinated development of decoupling evaluation model and micro-level coordination degree theory were established to evaluate the coordination relationship between water resources consumption and economic growth. The results show that the water ecological footprint of Shandong Province presents an uptrend of fluctuation overall,and the ecological footprint of water showes obvious agricultural dominance. The proportion of ecological footprint of surface water to groundwater is 3 ∶ 4,and in the ecological footprint of surface water,nitrate nitrogen is the decisive pollutant in 2003—2009,but phosphorus is the decisive pollutant in 2010—2015. The ecological footprint of groundwater is more complicated,which is alternately determined by COD,nitrate nitrogen and phosphorus. The per capita GDP growth and water ecological footprint are transformed from the primary coordination of weak decoupling to the intermediate coordination of strong decoupling. It is basically suggested that the coordinated development of water resources and economy in Shandong Province shows an improved trend.
To study the coordination of water resources utilization and economic growth,a calculating method of water ecological footprint was put forward by considering different receptive water bodies.This method was used to calculate water yield and ecological footprint of water quality of Shandong Province in 2003—2015. Macro-level coordinated development of decoupling evaluation model and micro-level coordination degree theory were established to evaluate the coordination relationship between water resources consumption and economic growth. The results show that the water ecological footprint of Shandong Province presents an uptrend of fluctuation overall,and the ecological footprint of water showes obvious agricultural dominance. The proportion of ecological footprint of surface water to groundwater is 3 ∶ 4,and in the ecological footprint of surface water,nitrate nitrogen is the decisive pollutant in 2003—2009,but phosphorus is the decisive pollutant in 2010—2015. The ecological footprint of groundwater is more complicated,which is alternately determined by COD,nitrate nitrogen and phosphorus. The per capita GDP growth and water ecological footprint are transformed from the primary coordination of weak decoupling to the intermediate coordination of strong decoupling. It is basically suggested that the coordinated development of water resources and economy in Shandong Province shows an improved trend.
引文
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[3]左其亭.水资源承载力研究方法总结与再思考[J].水利水电科技进展,2017,37(3):1-6,54.ZUO Qiting.Review of research mothods of water resources carrying capacity[J].Advances in science and technology of water resources,2017,37(3):1-6,54.(in Chinese)
[4]BAO Chao,HE Dongmei.The causal relationship between urbanization,economic growth and water use change in Provincial China[J].Sustainability,2015,7(12):16076-16085.
[5]LIU Jing,SUN Shikun,WU Pute,et al.Evaluation of crop production,trade,and consumption from the perspective of water resources:a case study of the Hetao irrigation district,China,for 1960-2010[J].Science of the total environment,2015,505:1174-1181.
[6]刘帝,操信春,王玉宝.基于田间实际耗水的作物生产水足迹[J].排灌机械工程学报,2014,32(8):719-724.LIU Di,CAO Xinchun,WANG Yubao.Water footprint of grain production based on crop water consumption[J].Journal of drainage and irrigation machinery engineering,2014,32(8):719-724.(in Chinese)
[7]杨振华,苏维词,赵卫权.岩溶地区水资源与经济发展脱钩分析[J].经济地理,2016,36(10):159-165.YANG Zhenhua,SU Weici,ZHAO Weiquan.Decoupling analysis of urban water resources and economic development based on water ecological footprint[J].Economic geography,2016,36(10):159-165.(in Chinese)
[8]SU Yin,GAO Weijun,GUAN Dongjie,et al.Dynamic assessment and forecast of urban water ecological footprint based on exponential smoothing analysis[J].Journal of cleaner production,2018,195:354-364.
[9]王勤勤,刘俊国,赵丹丹.京津冀地区主要农作物生产水足迹研究[J].水资源保护,2018,34(2):22-27,33.WANG Qinqin,LIU Junguo,ZHAO Dandan.Study on water footprint of main crop production in Jing-Jin-Ji Region[J].Water resources protection,2018,34(2):22-27,33.(in Chinese)
[10]张义,张合平,李丰生,等.基于改进模型的广西水资源生态足迹动态分析[J].资源科学,2013,35(8):1601-1610.ZHANG Yi,ZHANG Heping,LI Fengsheng,et al.Dynamic analysis of the water resource ecological footprint of Guangxi based on an improved mode[J].Resources science,2013,35(8):1601-1610.(in Chinese)
[11]MEKONNEN M M,HOEKSTRA A Y.Global grey water footprint and water pollution levels related to anthro-pogenic nitrogen loads to fresh water[J].Environmental science&technology,2015,49(21):12860-12868.
[12]王丹阳,李景保,叶亚亚,等.一种改进的灰水足迹计算方法[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(12):2120-2130.WANG Danyang,LI Jingbao,YE Yaya,et al.An improved calculation method of grey water footprint[J].Journal of natural resources,2015,30(12):2120-2130.(in Chinese)
[13]WANG Shasha,LI Rongrong.Toward the coordinated sustainable development of urban water resource use and economic growth:an empirical analysis of Tianjin City,China[J].Sustainability,2018,10(5):1-13.
[14]MARTINICO-PEREZ M F G,SCHANDL H,FISHMANT,et al.The socio-economic metabolism of an emerging economy:monitoring progress of decoupling of economic growth and environmental pressures in the Philippines[J].Ecological economics,2018,147:155-166.
[15]蒋桂芹,于福亮,赵勇.区域产业结构与用水结构协调度评价与调控---以安徽省为例[J].水利水电技术,2012,43(6):8-11,15.JIANG Guiqin,YU Fuliang,ZHAO Yong.Assessment and regulation of coordinated degree between regional industrial structure and water utilization structure-a case of Anhui Province[J].Journal of materials sciences&technology,2012,43(6):8-11,15.(in Chinese)
[16]WANG R Y,NG C N,LENZER J H,et al.Unpacking water conflicts:a reinterpretation of coordination problems in China's water-governance system[J].International journal of water resources development,2016:33(4):553-569.
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