地方性因素对流动人口流入地购房意愿的影响
|
摘要
基于2014年全国"流动人口社会融合与心理健康调查"专项调查的微观数据和相关的宏观统计数据,采用描述性统计和多层线性模型,探讨地方性因素对流动人口流入地购房意愿的影响.结果表明,地方性因素的确对流动人口流入地购房意愿产生显著影响,在控制了流动人口的个人、家庭特征等变量后,流入城市的流动人口占常住人口比、房价和人均GDP对流动人口流入地购房意愿具有显著的抑制作用;主要以吸引省际流动人口的城市,其流动人口流入地购房的意愿低于主要以吸引省内流动人口的城市.据此提出,必须正视城市差异,因地制宜地提出相对应的社会政策.
Based on the data from the Survey of Social Integration and Mental Health of Migrants in 2014 and relevant statistical data,this paper uses a hierarchical linear model to analyze and reveal the differential impact of local factors on floating population's urban housing purchase intention. The results show that,after controlling for the effects of individual characteristics,migration patterns,local factors are indeed play a critical role in affecting the willingness of floating population to purchase houses in the places where they enter. With higher degrees of floating populationlocal residents housing expenditure-income ratio,higher housing price and per capita GDP of cities,floating population are more likely to purchase houses in the cities. Furthermore,those cities mainly attracting interprovincial floating population have significant negative effect on the migrants' permanent settlement intention. Based on the above findings,thia paper suggests that must face up to the differences between cities and put forward corresponding social policies according to local conditions.
Based on the data from the Survey of Social Integration and Mental Health of Migrants in 2014 and relevant statistical data,this paper uses a hierarchical linear model to analyze and reveal the differential impact of local factors on floating population's urban housing purchase intention. The results show that,after controlling for the effects of individual characteristics,migration patterns,local factors are indeed play a critical role in affecting the willingness of floating population to purchase houses in the places where they enter. With higher degrees of floating populationlocal residents housing expenditure-income ratio,higher housing price and per capita GDP of cities,floating population are more likely to purchase houses in the cities. Furthermore,those cities mainly attracting interprovincial floating population have significant negative effect on the migrants' permanent settlement intention. Based on the above findings,thia paper suggests that must face up to the differences between cities and put forward corresponding social policies according to local conditions.
引文
[1]陆万军,张彬斌.户籍门槛、发展型政府与人口城镇化政策:基于大中城市面板数据的经验研究[J].南方经济,2016,34(2):28-42.
[2]张翼.农民工“进城落户”意愿与中国近期城镇化道路的选择[J].中国人口科学,2011,31(2):14-26,111.
[3]辜胜阻,李睿,曹誉波.中国农民工市民化的二维路径选择:以户籍改革为视角[J].中国人口科学,2014,34(5):2-10,126.
[4]王兴平,谢亚,陈宏胜,等.新时期中国开发区流动人口集聚与再流动研究[J].城市规划学刊,2018(2):29-36.
[5]刘成斌,周兵.中国农民工购房选择研究[J].中国人口科学,2015,35(6):99-108.
[6]宋全成,张倩.社会融入因素对流动人口未来置房选择的影响:基于2014年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据的实证分析[J].山东社会科学,2017(9):70-76.
[7]杨巧,杨扬长.租房还是买房:什么影响了流动人口住房选择[J].人口与经济,2018,31(6):105-115.
[8]刘望保.国内外生命历程与居住选择研究回顾和展望[J].世界地理研究,2006,16(2):100-106.
[9]HUANG Y,CLARK W.Housing tenure choice in transitional urban China:a multilevel analysis[J].Urban Studies,2002,39(1):7-32
[10]DEURLOO M C,CLARK W A V,DIELEMAN F M.Tenure choice and household characteristics in the US.housing market[J].Environment and Planning A,1987,19:1659-1670.
[11]CUI C,GEERTMAN S,HOOIMEIJER P.Access to homeownership in urban China:a comparison between skilled migrants and skilled locals in Nanjing[J].Cities,2016,50:188-196.
[12]林李月,朱宇.中国城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的空间格局及影响因素:基于2012年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据[J].地理学报,2016,71(10):1696-1709.
[13]ZHU Y,CHEN W Z.The settlement intention of China's floating population in the cities:recent changes and multifaceted individual-level determinants[J].Population,Space and Place,2010,16(4):253-267.
[14]刘于琪,刘晔,李志刚.中国城市新移民的定居意愿及其影响机制[J].地理科学,2014,34(7):780-787.
[15]国家统计局.城市统计年鉴2015[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.
[16]中国房地产业协会.中国房价行情网[EB/OL].(2014-12-03)[2016-11-03].http:∥www.creprice.cn/naprice/funation.html.
[17]田明.地方因素对流动人口城市融入的影响研究[J].地理科学,2017,37(7):997-100.
[18]HAURIN D R.Income variability,home ownership,and housing demand[J].Journal of Urban Economics,1991,1(1):60-74.
[19]肖昕茹.大城市青年流动人口购房意愿及其影响因素分析:以上海为例[J].上海经济研究,2014(8):121-129.
[20]邓金杰,仝德,李贵才.城中村外来人口的购房意愿研究:以深圳为例[J].人文地理,2011,26(6):34-38.
[21]朱祥波,谭术魁,王斯亮.城市流动人口的住房选择:事实与解释[J].南方人口,2015,30(3):35-44.
[22]刘文,王彦之.农民工在务工地购房意愿的影响因素研究:基于203位江西籍农民工的实证调[J].农业科学与技术,2015(12):2881-2885.
[23]宋艳娇.城市外来流动人口购房意愿及其影响因素研究:以城市规模的异质性为视角[J].华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2016(6):157-169.
[24]胡建坤,苏强.农民进城买房行为研究[J].城市发展研究,2013,20(2):46-51.
[25]林存贞,林李月,朱宇,等.跨地区生计视角下流动人口在流出地住房投资行为的时空特征[J].人文地理,2018,33(4):43-51.
[2]张翼.农民工“进城落户”意愿与中国近期城镇化道路的选择[J].中国人口科学,2011,31(2):14-26,111.
[3]辜胜阻,李睿,曹誉波.中国农民工市民化的二维路径选择:以户籍改革为视角[J].中国人口科学,2014,34(5):2-10,126.
[4]王兴平,谢亚,陈宏胜,等.新时期中国开发区流动人口集聚与再流动研究[J].城市规划学刊,2018(2):29-36.
[5]刘成斌,周兵.中国农民工购房选择研究[J].中国人口科学,2015,35(6):99-108.
[6]宋全成,张倩.社会融入因素对流动人口未来置房选择的影响:基于2014年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据的实证分析[J].山东社会科学,2017(9):70-76.
[7]杨巧,杨扬长.租房还是买房:什么影响了流动人口住房选择[J].人口与经济,2018,31(6):105-115.
[8]刘望保.国内外生命历程与居住选择研究回顾和展望[J].世界地理研究,2006,16(2):100-106.
[9]HUANG Y,CLARK W.Housing tenure choice in transitional urban China:a multilevel analysis[J].Urban Studies,2002,39(1):7-32
[10]DEURLOO M C,CLARK W A V,DIELEMAN F M.Tenure choice and household characteristics in the US.housing market[J].Environment and Planning A,1987,19:1659-1670.
[11]CUI C,GEERTMAN S,HOOIMEIJER P.Access to homeownership in urban China:a comparison between skilled migrants and skilled locals in Nanjing[J].Cities,2016,50:188-196.
[12]林李月,朱宇.中国城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的空间格局及影响因素:基于2012年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据[J].地理学报,2016,71(10):1696-1709.
[13]ZHU Y,CHEN W Z.The settlement intention of China's floating population in the cities:recent changes and multifaceted individual-level determinants[J].Population,Space and Place,2010,16(4):253-267.
[14]刘于琪,刘晔,李志刚.中国城市新移民的定居意愿及其影响机制[J].地理科学,2014,34(7):780-787.
[15]国家统计局.城市统计年鉴2015[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.
[16]中国房地产业协会.中国房价行情网[EB/OL].(2014-12-03)[2016-11-03].http:∥www.creprice.cn/naprice/funation.html.
[17]田明.地方因素对流动人口城市融入的影响研究[J].地理科学,2017,37(7):997-100.
[18]HAURIN D R.Income variability,home ownership,and housing demand[J].Journal of Urban Economics,1991,1(1):60-74.
[19]肖昕茹.大城市青年流动人口购房意愿及其影响因素分析:以上海为例[J].上海经济研究,2014(8):121-129.
[20]邓金杰,仝德,李贵才.城中村外来人口的购房意愿研究:以深圳为例[J].人文地理,2011,26(6):34-38.
[21]朱祥波,谭术魁,王斯亮.城市流动人口的住房选择:事实与解释[J].南方人口,2015,30(3):35-44.
[22]刘文,王彦之.农民工在务工地购房意愿的影响因素研究:基于203位江西籍农民工的实证调[J].农业科学与技术,2015(12):2881-2885.
[23]宋艳娇.城市外来流动人口购房意愿及其影响因素研究:以城市规模的异质性为视角[J].华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2016(6):157-169.
[24]胡建坤,苏强.农民进城买房行为研究[J].城市发展研究,2013,20(2):46-51.
[25]林存贞,林李月,朱宇,等.跨地区生计视角下流动人口在流出地住房投资行为的时空特征[J].人文地理,2018,33(4):43-51.