湖南省乡村振兴耦合协调发展测度与路径选择研究
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摘要
乡村发展不仅要全面发展,更要各方面协调发展,所以各方面的可持续协调发展是乡村振兴战略的重中之重。文章基于耦合协调的视角对湖南乡村振兴在"产业兴旺、生态宜居、乡风文明、治理有效、生活富裕"五个方面协调发展构建适当的指标体系,采用现代计量经济学方法展开研究。结果表明:1994—2016年,在"产业兴旺、生态宜居、乡风文明、治理有效、生活富裕"之间具有长期稳定的均衡关系,而且这五方面之间存在着正向交互效应;"产业兴旺"是五者协调发展的重要推动力,"生态宜居、生活宽裕"对生态宜居具有显著的促进作用和较长的持续效应;"乡风文明、治理有效"的影响相对较弱,但仍具有较长的持续效应。据此,给出推进湖南乡村振兴建设中"产业兴旺、生态宜居、乡风文明、治理有效、生活富裕"协调发展的对策。
Rural development requires not only all-round development, but also coordinated development in all aspects.Sustainable and coordinated development of various subsystems is the top priority of the rural revitalization strategy.Based on the perspective of coupling and coordination, this article establishes the Hunan Rural Revitalization coordinated development indexes system which consists of five subsystems: prosperous industry, ecological livability, rural civilization, effective governance, and affluent life, and applies modern econometric methods. The research results show that during the period of 1994-2016, it had a long-term stable equilibrium relationship and a positive interaction effect among the subsystems. "Prosperous industry" was an important driver for the coordinated development among them. "Ecological livability" and "well-off life" had a significant promotion effect and long-lasting effect on ecological livability. The influence of "rural civilization and effective governance" was relatively weak, but they still had a lasting effect. Based on these, the countermeasures for promoting the coordinated development of the rural revitalization of Hunan Province were given.
Rural development requires not only all-round development, but also coordinated development in all aspects.Sustainable and coordinated development of various subsystems is the top priority of the rural revitalization strategy.Based on the perspective of coupling and coordination, this article establishes the Hunan Rural Revitalization coordinated development indexes system which consists of five subsystems: prosperous industry, ecological livability, rural civilization, effective governance, and affluent life, and applies modern econometric methods. The research results show that during the period of 1994-2016, it had a long-term stable equilibrium relationship and a positive interaction effect among the subsystems. "Prosperous industry" was an important driver for the coordinated development among them. "Ecological livability" and "well-off life" had a significant promotion effect and long-lasting effect on ecological livability. The influence of "rural civilization and effective governance" was relatively weak, but they still had a lasting effect. Based on these, the countermeasures for promoting the coordinated development of the rural revitalization of Hunan Province were given.
引文
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[18]郭庆然.中部地区城镇化、农业现代化与农民收入增长的实证分析[J].统计与决策,2013(23):141-144.
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[20]陈国生,丁翠翠,郭庆然.基于熵值赋权法的新型工业化、新型城镇化与乡村振兴水平关系实证研究[J].湖南社会科学,2018(6):114-124.
[2]李绍文.黑龙江省新农村建设绩效评价研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2011.
[3]朱媛瑛.兰州市新农村建设绩效分析与评价[D].兰州:甘肃农业大学,2010.
[4]黄颖,余秀江.新农村建设绩效评估指标体系构建研究——基于粤北浛洸镇8村调查数据的实证分析[J].南方农村,2012,28(11):26-29,34.
[5]马培.宜春市土地利用总体规划实施绩效评价研究[D].南昌:江西师范大学,2009.
[6]吴剑巨.湖南省产业结构调整与升级研究[D].长沙:湖南师范大学,2007.
[7]段小芳,潘文权.农业生态脆弱性指标体系评价研究——以邵阳市为例[J].邵阳学院学报:自然科学版,2017,14(2):90-94,112.
[8]李石新,朱艳.湖南省农村经济发展质量评价[J].沈阳农业大学学报:社会科学版,2017,19(2):144-149.
[9]张琰飞,朱海英.西南地区文化演艺与旅游流耦合协调度实证研究[J].经济地理,2014,34(7):182-187.
[10]张漫,禹四明.基于熵值法的城镇化质量评价及区域差异分析——以湖南省为例[J].黑龙江金融,2018(8):65-68.
[11]钱丽,陈忠卫,肖仁桥.中国区域工业化、城镇化与农业现代化耦合协调度及其影响因素研究[J].经济问题探索,2012(11):10-17.
[12]马历,龙花楼,戈大专,等.中国农区城乡协同发展与乡村振兴途径[J].经济地理,2018,38(10):37-44.
[13]龙冬平,李同昇,于正松.基于微观视角的乡村发展水平评价及机理分析——以城乡统筹示范区陕西省高陵县为例[J].经济地理,2013,33(11):117-123.
[14]贺艳华,范曙光,周国华,等.基于主体功能区划的湖南省乡村转型发展评价[J].地理科学进展,2018,37(5):667-676.
[15] Sims C A. Macroeconomics and reality[J]. Econometrica,1980,48(1):1-48.
[16] PhILLIPS P C B. Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics[J]. Journal of Econometrics,1986,33(3):311-340.
[17] Engle R F,Granger C W J. Cointegration and error correction representation,estimation and testing[J]. Econometrica,1987,55(2):251-276.
[18]郭庆然.中部地区城镇化、农业现代化与农民收入增长的实证分析[J].统计与决策,2013(23):141-144.
[19]陈晓珊.汇率制度、货币供给冲击与宏观经济稳定性[J].广西财经学院学报,2014(5):59-66.
[20]陈国生,丁翠翠,郭庆然.基于熵值赋权法的新型工业化、新型城镇化与乡村振兴水平关系实证研究[J].湖南社会科学,2018(6):114-124.