基于风险最小的气体类危险货物在列车中的编挂辆数研究
|
摘要
在运输路径和总运量既定的情况下,针对铁路危险货物运输的特点,将整个运输过程中的风险分为两部分,即运输事故风险和运输经济风险,依从这两部分运输风险构建铁路气体类危险货物在列车中的编挂辆数的风险度量模型,通过算例分析得到最佳的车辆编挂辆数。对比前人通过选择优化危险货物的运输路径来减小运输风险的方法,本文从铁路危险货物运输的列车特性和编组特点出发,着眼于铁路危险货物运输车辆的编挂数目对运输风险的影响,将运输风险和铁路运输组织方式联系在一起,对铁路危险货物运输组织模式具有一定实际应用价值,对铁路危险货物运输风险控制具有一定的理论价值。
In the case of given transportation path and total transport volume,according to the characteristics of railway transportation of dangerous goods,the risks in the transportation process were divided into two parts,namely,transport accident risk and transport economic risk.Based on the two types of risks,the risk measurement model was built for the number of vehicles in a train to transport gas-type dangerous goods,to obtain the best grouping number through example analysis.Compared with previous methods of reducing transportation risk by optimizing the transportation route for dangerous goods,from the perspectives of the characteristics of the trains to transport dangerous goods and vehicle grouping characteristics,this method focused on the impact of the number of railway freight vehicles on the transport risk,and connected the transportation risk with the way of the railway transportation organization.It has a certain practical application value for the transportation organization model of the railway dangerous goods and has a certain theoretical value for the risk control of railway dangerous goods transportation.
In the case of given transportation path and total transport volume,according to the characteristics of railway transportation of dangerous goods,the risks in the transportation process were divided into two parts,namely,transport accident risk and transport economic risk.Based on the two types of risks,the risk measurement model was built for the number of vehicles in a train to transport gas-type dangerous goods,to obtain the best grouping number through example analysis.Compared with previous methods of reducing transportation risk by optimizing the transportation route for dangerous goods,from the perspectives of the characteristics of the trains to transport dangerous goods and vehicle grouping characteristics,this method focused on the impact of the number of railway freight vehicles on the transport risk,and connected the transportation risk with the way of the railway transportation organization.It has a certain practical application value for the transportation organization model of the railway dangerous goods and has a certain theoretical value for the risk control of railway dangerous goods transportation.
引文
[1]中国铁路总公司.铁路危险货物运输管理暂行规定[Z].北京:中国铁路总公司,2014.
[2]武小琪.气体类危险货物铁路运输安全技术条件及运输能力分析与研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2010.
[3]程婕.铁路危险货物运输风险度量模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(11):130-133.CHENG Jie.Risk Assessment Model for Hazardous Goods Transport by Railway[J].China Safety Science Journal,2010,20(11):130-133.
[4]姜姗姗.铁路危险货物运输安全综合分析技术研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2009.
[5]VERMA M.Railroad Transportation of Dangerous Goods:a Conditional,Exposure Approach to Minimize Transport Risk[J].Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technologies,2011,19(5):790-802.
[6]杨能普,杨月芳,冯伟.基于模糊贝叶斯网络的铁路危险货物运输过程风险评估[J].铁道学报,2014,36(7):8-15.YANG Nengpu,YANG Yuefang,FENG Wei.Risk Assessment of Railway Dangerous Goods Transport Process Based on Fuzzy Bayesian Network[J].Journal of the China Railway Society,2014,36(7):8-15.
[7]李凤绪.基于风险分析的铁路危险货物运输径路选择研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2015.
[8]康文超.基于高斯烟羽模型的铁路易燃气体泄漏扩散分析[J].兰州交通大学学报,2013,32(6):137-140.KANG Wenchao.Analysis of Leakage Diffusion of Flammable Gas in Railway Transportation Based on Gaussian Plume Model[J].Journal of Lanzhou Jiaotong University,2013,32(6):137-140.
[9]贾顺平.交通运输经济学[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2011:21-22.
[10]茆诗松,程依明,濮晓龙.概率论与数理统计教程[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2004:44-54.
[11]GLICKMAN T S,ERKUT E,ZSCHOCKE M S.The Cost and Risk Impacts of Rerouting Railroad Shipments of Hazardous Materials[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2007,39(5):1015-1025.
[12]肖斌.基于保障运输秩序的铁路货车维修机制优化研究[D].北京:中国铁道科学研究院,2015.
[13]赵方伟.铁路货车车体载荷谱测试及疲劳强度评价研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2015.
[14]刘思良.基于预警理论的专用铁路运输安全风险管理[D].兰州:兰州交通大学,2016.
[15]张龙忠.基于云理论的液态危险货物铁路运输风险评价[D].兰州:兰州交通大学,2015.
[2]武小琪.气体类危险货物铁路运输安全技术条件及运输能力分析与研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2010.
[3]程婕.铁路危险货物运输风险度量模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(11):130-133.CHENG Jie.Risk Assessment Model for Hazardous Goods Transport by Railway[J].China Safety Science Journal,2010,20(11):130-133.
[4]姜姗姗.铁路危险货物运输安全综合分析技术研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2009.
[5]VERMA M.Railroad Transportation of Dangerous Goods:a Conditional,Exposure Approach to Minimize Transport Risk[J].Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technologies,2011,19(5):790-802.
[6]杨能普,杨月芳,冯伟.基于模糊贝叶斯网络的铁路危险货物运输过程风险评估[J].铁道学报,2014,36(7):8-15.YANG Nengpu,YANG Yuefang,FENG Wei.Risk Assessment of Railway Dangerous Goods Transport Process Based on Fuzzy Bayesian Network[J].Journal of the China Railway Society,2014,36(7):8-15.
[7]李凤绪.基于风险分析的铁路危险货物运输径路选择研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2015.
[8]康文超.基于高斯烟羽模型的铁路易燃气体泄漏扩散分析[J].兰州交通大学学报,2013,32(6):137-140.KANG Wenchao.Analysis of Leakage Diffusion of Flammable Gas in Railway Transportation Based on Gaussian Plume Model[J].Journal of Lanzhou Jiaotong University,2013,32(6):137-140.
[9]贾顺平.交通运输经济学[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2011:21-22.
[10]茆诗松,程依明,濮晓龙.概率论与数理统计教程[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2004:44-54.
[11]GLICKMAN T S,ERKUT E,ZSCHOCKE M S.The Cost and Risk Impacts of Rerouting Railroad Shipments of Hazardous Materials[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2007,39(5):1015-1025.
[12]肖斌.基于保障运输秩序的铁路货车维修机制优化研究[D].北京:中国铁道科学研究院,2015.
[13]赵方伟.铁路货车车体载荷谱测试及疲劳强度评价研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2015.
[14]刘思良.基于预警理论的专用铁路运输安全风险管理[D].兰州:兰州交通大学,2016.
[15]张龙忠.基于云理论的液态危险货物铁路运输风险评价[D].兰州:兰州交通大学,2015.