新兴产业本地(国内)市场对出口贸易的传导效应研究——基于新兴产业成长阶段视角
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摘要
新兴产业的发展不仅要重视培育本地(国内)市场,同时也要积极开拓国际市场,国内需求市场的稳定和扩大能够形成本地市场效应并促进贸易。论文从联合国商品贸易统计数据库选取了中国生物医学工程、轨道交通装备、航空装备、高端海洋工程装备、先进核电技术、新一代电子核心基础等新兴产业的数据作为研究样本,借鉴PCAST的研究并采用皮尔曲线拟合法将新兴产业的成长阶段划分为"技术与商业示范"、"规模化降低成本"、"大面积应用"等阶段,实证检验了FDI、市场结构和技术进步在新兴产业本地(国内)市场扩大对出口贸易促进中的传导效应及其差异性。结果表明,新兴产业"技术与商业示范"阶段,FDI具有一定的传导作用但是表现为遮掩效应,技术进步所发挥的传导作用十分显著,市场结构发挥了一定的传导作用但要弱于技术进步;"规模化降低成本"阶段,FDI的传导作用逐渐增强,但其对出口贸易的抑制性也有所增强,仍然表现为遮掩效应,技术进步的传导作用不明显,市场结构则表现为显著的传导作用;"大面积应用"阶段,FDI的传导作用进一步增强,其对出口贸易的抑制性开始下降,但仍然表现为遮掩效应,技术进步的传导作用仍然不明显,市场结构机制继续表现为显著的传导作用。政府应根据新兴产业的不同成长阶段,动态调整FDI、技术进步、市场结构等传导机制,以充分发挥新兴产业本地(国内)市场对出口贸易的促进作用。
It's important to cultivate home market and exploit international market actively for the development of strategic emerging industries. The steadiness and enlargement of national demand market results in home market effect and promote the export. The research samples are made up by the data of biomedical engineering industry, rail transit equipment industry,aviation equipment industry, high-end marine engineering equipment industry, advanced nuclear power technology industry and new generation of electronic core infrastructure industry from the United Nations database. Learning from the study of PCAST, the growth period of strategic emerging industry was divided into commercial demonstration, Buy-Down and large-scale deployment via pearl curve model. The analysis tests transmitting effects and difference of FDI mechanism, market structure mechanism and technological progress mechanism during the process of home market enlargement of strategic emerging industry promoting export trade. The results denote emerging industry belongs to commercial demonstration when FDI manifests the transmitting impact and suppressing effect and the transmitting effect of technological progress is evident, whose effect is stronger than market structure. In Buy-Down period the transmitting effect of FDI becomes increasingly important whose inhibiting effect on export trade also enhances and expresses suppressing effect. The transmitting effect of technological progress isn' t of significance but that of market structure mechanism shows strong evidence. As to Large-scale deployment, the transmitting effect of FDI gets stronger further whose inhibiting effect on export trade declines, but also displays suppressing effect.The transmitting effect of technological progress does not continue to exist but that of market structure mechanism goes on obviously. To fully exert the positive impact of home market of emerging industry on export trade, the government should adjust the transmitting effects of FDI,technological progress mechanism and market structure mechanism dynamically according to different periods of emerging industry.
It's important to cultivate home market and exploit international market actively for the development of strategic emerging industries. The steadiness and enlargement of national demand market results in home market effect and promote the export. The research samples are made up by the data of biomedical engineering industry, rail transit equipment industry,aviation equipment industry, high-end marine engineering equipment industry, advanced nuclear power technology industry and new generation of electronic core infrastructure industry from the United Nations database. Learning from the study of PCAST, the growth period of strategic emerging industry was divided into commercial demonstration, Buy-Down and large-scale deployment via pearl curve model. The analysis tests transmitting effects and difference of FDI mechanism, market structure mechanism and technological progress mechanism during the process of home market enlargement of strategic emerging industry promoting export trade. The results denote emerging industry belongs to commercial demonstration when FDI manifests the transmitting impact and suppressing effect and the transmitting effect of technological progress is evident, whose effect is stronger than market structure. In Buy-Down period the transmitting effect of FDI becomes increasingly important whose inhibiting effect on export trade also enhances and expresses suppressing effect. The transmitting effect of technological progress isn' t of significance but that of market structure mechanism shows strong evidence. As to Large-scale deployment, the transmitting effect of FDI gets stronger further whose inhibiting effect on export trade declines, but also displays suppressing effect.The transmitting effect of technological progress does not continue to exist but that of market structure mechanism goes on obviously. To fully exert the positive impact of home market of emerging industry on export trade, the government should adjust the transmitting effects of FDI,technological progress mechanism and market structure mechanism dynamically according to different periods of emerging industry.
引文
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李莉.2009.东道国宏观因素对FDI进入方式的影响---基于面板数据的实证分析[J].经济与管理研究(10).
林发勤,唐宜红.2010.比较优势、本地市场效应与中国制成品出口[J].国际贸易问题(1).
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柳卸林.1994.市场结构与技术创新[J].数量经济技术经济研究(9).
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马晓燕,骆玲.2005.基于支柱产业理论体系构建的研究[J].财经科学(5).
潘向东,廖进中,赖明勇.2005.经济制度安排、国际贸易与经济增长影响机理的经验研究[J].经济研究(11):57-67.
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沈坤荣,周卫民.2012.中国经济增长中的管理要素:理论梳理和实证分析[J].科研管理(5).
施炳展,冼国明.2012.要素价格扭曲与中国工业企业出口行为[J].中国工业经济(2).
温忠麟,张雷,侯杰泰等.2004.中介效应检验程序及其应用[J].心理学报(5).
吴照云,余焕新.2008.中国新兴产业市场结构演变规律探究---以有机硅产业为例[J].中国工业经济(12).
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杨汝岱.2008.中国工业制成品出口增长的影响因素研究:基于1994~2005年分行业面板数据的经验分析[J].世界经济(8).
殷祚云.2002.Logistic曲线拟合方法研究[J].数理统计与管理(1).
周勇.2007.论资本密集型产业发展的劳动密集型产业基础[J].经济问题探索(11).
赵志耘,吕冰洋,郭庆旺,等.2007.资本积累与技术进步的动态融合:中国经济增长的一个典型事实[J].经济研究(11).
“中国2007年投入产出表分析应用”课题组,许宪春,彭志龙等.2011.出口导向经济模式的形成、问题与前景[J].统计研究(2).
钟伟,覃东海.2003.国际资本的流入结构和政府间FDI的激励竞争[J].管理世界(10).
Cameron A C,Trivedi P K.2010.Microeconometrics Using Stata,Revised Edition[M].Stata Press Books.
Davis D.R,.1998.The Home Marke,Trade and Industrial Structure[J].American Economic.(88):1264-76.
Giraldo I,Jaramillo F.,2016.Productivity Demand and the Home Market Effect[J].Documentos De Trabajo(2).
Grossman,G.,E.Helpman.1991.Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy[M].MIT Press.
Helsley R W,Strange W C.1990.Matching and agglomeration economies in a system of cities[J].Regional Science&Urban Economics,20(2):189-212.
Kimura,F.,and H.Lee,2006,The Gravity Equation in International Trade in Services.Review of World Economics,142(1),92-121.
Krugrman,P.,1980,Scale Economies,Product Differentiation,and the Pattern of Trade.American Economic Review.(70),950-959.
Linder,Staan Burenstam.1961.An Essay on Trade and Trans-formation[M].Stockholm:Almqvist and Wiksell.
MacK innon,D.P.,Lockwood,C.M.,Hoffman,J.M.,West,S.G.,&Sheets,V.2002.A comparison of methods to test mediation and other intervening variable effects[J].Psychological MethodsM ackinnon7(1):83-104.
Manfred Neumann,Jurgen Weigandbc,Alexandra Grossa.2001.Market size,fixed costs and horizontal concentration[J].International Journal of Industrial Organization 19(5):823-840.
Xu G,Liu C,Huang L,et al.2013.Development of new EST-derived SSRs in Salvia miltiorrhiza(Labiatae)in China and preliminary analysis of genetic diversity and population structure[J].Biochemical Systematics&Ecology 51(4):308-313.
李莉.2009.东道国宏观因素对FDI进入方式的影响---基于面板数据的实证分析[J].经济与管理研究(10).
林发勤,唐宜红.2010.比较优势、本地市场效应与中国制成品出口[J].国际贸易问题(1).
刘恩初,李文秀.2016.中美生产服务贸易的本地市场效应对比研究---基于投入产出面板数据的引力模型实证分析[J].中国软科学(4).
刘红玉,彭福扬,吴传胜.2012.战略性新兴产业的形成机理与成长路径[J].科技进步与对策(11).
柳卸林.1994.市场结构与技术创新[J].数量经济技术经济研究(9).
马胜伟,何元贵.2010.全要素生产率对出口贸易的影响-基于广东省的实证分析[J].工业技术经济(3).
马晓燕,骆玲.2005.基于支柱产业理论体系构建的研究[J].财经科学(5).
潘向东,廖进中,赖明勇.2005.经济制度安排、国际贸易与经济增长影响机理的经验研究[J].经济研究(11):57-67.
邱斌,尹威.2010.中国制造业出口是否存在本土市场效应[J].世界经济(7).
沈坤荣,周卫民.2012.中国经济增长中的管理要素:理论梳理和实证分析[J].科研管理(5).
施炳展,冼国明.2012.要素价格扭曲与中国工业企业出口行为[J].中国工业经济(2).
温忠麟,张雷,侯杰泰等.2004.中介效应检验程序及其应用[J].心理学报(5).
吴照云,余焕新.2008.中国新兴产业市场结构演变规律探究---以有机硅产业为例[J].中国工业经济(12).
熊勇清,黄健柏.2013.光伏产业困境摆脱与市场的协同培育[J].改革(12).
杨汝岱.2008.中国工业制成品出口增长的影响因素研究:基于1994~2005年分行业面板数据的经验分析[J].世界经济(8).
殷祚云.2002.Logistic曲线拟合方法研究[J].数理统计与管理(1).
周勇.2007.论资本密集型产业发展的劳动密集型产业基础[J].经济问题探索(11).
赵志耘,吕冰洋,郭庆旺,等.2007.资本积累与技术进步的动态融合:中国经济增长的一个典型事实[J].经济研究(11).
“中国2007年投入产出表分析应用”课题组,许宪春,彭志龙等.2011.出口导向经济模式的形成、问题与前景[J].统计研究(2).
钟伟,覃东海.2003.国际资本的流入结构和政府间FDI的激励竞争[J].管理世界(10).
Cameron A C,Trivedi P K.2010.Microeconometrics Using Stata,Revised Edition[M].Stata Press Books.
Davis D.R,.1998.The Home Marke,Trade and Industrial Structure[J].American Economic.(88):1264-76.
Giraldo I,Jaramillo F.,2016.Productivity Demand and the Home Market Effect[J].Documentos De Trabajo(2).
Grossman,G.,E.Helpman.1991.Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy[M].MIT Press.
Helsley R W,Strange W C.1990.Matching and agglomeration economies in a system of cities[J].Regional Science&Urban Economics,20(2):189-212.
Kimura,F.,and H.Lee,2006,The Gravity Equation in International Trade in Services.Review of World Economics,142(1),92-121.
Krugrman,P.,1980,Scale Economies,Product Differentiation,and the Pattern of Trade.American Economic Review.(70),950-959.
Linder,Staan Burenstam.1961.An Essay on Trade and Trans-formation[M].Stockholm:Almqvist and Wiksell.
MacK innon,D.P.,Lockwood,C.M.,Hoffman,J.M.,West,S.G.,&Sheets,V.2002.A comparison of methods to test mediation and other intervening variable effects[J].Psychological MethodsM ackinnon7(1):83-104.
Manfred Neumann,Jurgen Weigandbc,Alexandra Grossa.2001.Market size,fixed costs and horizontal concentration[J].International Journal of Industrial Organization 19(5):823-840.
Xu G,Liu C,Huang L,et al.2013.Development of new EST-derived SSRs in Salvia miltiorrhiza(Labiatae)in China and preliminary analysis of genetic diversity and population structure[J].Biochemical Systematics&Ecology 51(4):308-313.