基于经验相关的城陵矶日流量模拟模型研究
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摘要
基于洞庭湖水量平衡和长江干流对洞庭湖顶托作用,建立了一种经验的洞庭湖出口城陵矶流量逐日预报模型。首先建立了长江干流宜昌-枝城、枝城-监利流量的相关关系,推求枝城和监利流量;然后根据枝城站流量推求了三口分流量,根据鹿角水位或多输入单输出线性系统模型推求螺山流量;最后根据洞庭湖区鹿角水位以及长江干流监利站和螺山站的顶托作用求得城陵矶流量。模型计算结果与实测资料比较表明,不同水平年下城陵矶流量模拟的确定性系数均超过0.8,能为洞庭湖水文模拟提供新的方法。
An empirical model is developed to forecast the daily flow of Dongting Lake at Chenglingji Station based on the water balance of Dongting Lake and the backwater effect by the Yangtze River. Firstly,the correlations of Yichang-Zhicheng discharges,and Zhicheng-Jianli discharges are established to calculate the discharges of Zhicheng and Jianli Station. Then the discharge of three outlets are calculated from the discharge of Zhicheng Station,and the discharge of Luoshan Station is derived from the water level at Lujiao Station or by a multi-input single-output liner system model of Yichang-Luoshan discharges. Finally,the discharge of Chenglingji Station is derived by considering the upstream flow at Jianli station,water level of the Dongting Lake at Lujiao Station and the downstream backwater effect by Luoshan Station.Comparing the simulated results with measured data,the simulation efficiency of the discharge at Chenglingji Station is higher than 0.8 in different typical years. Results show that the model is reliable and can provide a new method for the hydrological simulation of Dongting Lake.
An empirical model is developed to forecast the daily flow of Dongting Lake at Chenglingji Station based on the water balance of Dongting Lake and the backwater effect by the Yangtze River. Firstly,the correlations of Yichang-Zhicheng discharges,and Zhicheng-Jianli discharges are established to calculate the discharges of Zhicheng and Jianli Station. Then the discharge of three outlets are calculated from the discharge of Zhicheng Station,and the discharge of Luoshan Station is derived from the water level at Lujiao Station or by a multi-input single-output liner system model of Yichang-Luoshan discharges. Finally,the discharge of Chenglingji Station is derived by considering the upstream flow at Jianli station,water level of the Dongting Lake at Lujiao Station and the downstream backwater effect by Luoshan Station.Comparing the simulated results with measured data,the simulation efficiency of the discharge at Chenglingji Station is higher than 0.8 in different typical years. Results show that the model is reliable and can provide a new method for the hydrological simulation of Dongting Lake.
引文
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[16] SL250-2000,水文情报预报规范[S].
[2] DU Yun,XUE Huaiping,WU Shengjun,et al. Lake area changes in the middle Yangtze region of China over the 20th century[J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2011,92(4):1 248-1 255.
[3] YUAN Yujie,ZENG Guangming,LIANG Jie,et al. Variation of water level in Dongting Lake over a 50-year period:implications for the impacts of anthropogenic and climatic factors[J]. Journal of hydrology,2015,525(10):450-456.
[4] CHEN Yongcan,WANG Zhiyong,LIU Zhaowei,et al. 1D-2D Coupled Numerical Model for Shallow-Water Flows[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2012,138(2):122-132.
[5] LAI Xijun,LIANG Qiuhua,JIANG Jiahu,et al. Impoundment effects of the Three-Gorges-Dam on flow regimes in two China's largest freshwater lakes[J]. Water Resources Management,2014,28(14):5 111-5 124.
[6]谢作涛,张小峰,谈广鸣.洞庭湖城陵矶流量逐日预报研究[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2004,37(2):5-7.
[7]马乐宽,邱蠫,赵越,等.基于改进的神经网络与支持向量机的小流域日径流量预测研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(5):23-27.
[8]王蒙蒙,戴凌全,戴会超,等.基于支持向量回归的洞庭湖水位快速预测[J].排灌机械工程学报,2017,35(11):954-961.
[9]刘鹏飞,李一兵.三峡工程蓄水前后监利站水沙变化分析[J].水道港口,2011,32(6):408-412.
[10]郭希望,陈剑池,邹宁,等.长江中下游主要水文站水位流量关系研究[J].人民长江,2006,37(9):68-71.
[11]宋求明,熊立华,肖义,等.基于MODIS遥感影像的洞庭湖面积与水位关系研究[J].节水灌溉,2011,(6):20-23.
[12]毛北平,吴忠明,梅军亚,等.三峡工程蓄水以来长江与洞庭湖汇流关系变化[J].水力发电学报,2013,32(5):48-57.
[13]孙晓红,郭生练,郭海晋,等.长江洞庭湖和宜昌至汉口流域洪水过程模拟研究[J].水电能源科学,2001,19(3):46-48.
[14]沈艳,刘攀,刘癑.三峡水库调蓄后长江中游径流演变趋势分析[J].人民长江,2013,44(4):25-27.
[15]施修端,夏薇,杨彬.城陵矶站水沙及水位流量关系变化分析[J].人民长江,2000,(3):35-36.
[16] SL250-2000,水文情报预报规范[S].