基于模糊综合层次分析法的唐山市可再生能源开发决策评价
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摘要
为了准确地反映可再生能源开发决策评价中主观判断的不确定性,运用模糊综合层次分析法将可再生能源开发决策过程中的各种指标进行定量化处理,提出了可再生能源发电产业综合评价指标体系,介绍了模糊综合层次分析法的评价步骤,并应用于唐山市可再生能源开发决策中.结果表明,唐山市应重点开发风能,其次是太阳能和生物质能,有选择地发展水能.其研究结果符合区域实际情况,能够为唐山市可再生能源发电产业的发展提供理论支持.
In order to exactly reflect the uncertainty of subjective judgement existing in the evaluation of renewable energy power industry, fuzzy comprehensive analytical hierarchy process is exerted to the decision process of renewable energy exploitation in which can quantitatively deal with a number of indexes. Based on the approach, this paper builds an evaluation index system of renewable energy power industry and applies it into the decision evaluation of renewable energy development in Tangshan City. The results indicate that the development of wind energy should be exploited ahead of other renewable energy, followed by solar energy,biomass energy and hydroenergy. It is not only in accordance with regional conditions, but also can provide support for the development of renewable energy power industry in Tangshan City.
In order to exactly reflect the uncertainty of subjective judgement existing in the evaluation of renewable energy power industry, fuzzy comprehensive analytical hierarchy process is exerted to the decision process of renewable energy exploitation in which can quantitatively deal with a number of indexes. Based on the approach, this paper builds an evaluation index system of renewable energy power industry and applies it into the decision evaluation of renewable energy development in Tangshan City. The results indicate that the development of wind energy should be exploited ahead of other renewable energy, followed by solar energy,biomass energy and hydroenergy. It is not only in accordance with regional conditions, but also can provide support for the development of renewable energy power industry in Tangshan City.
引文
[1]孟浩,陈颖健.基于层次分析法的新能源产业发展能力综合评价[J].中国科技论坛,2010(6):51-58.
[2]杨静雅,刘辉舟.我国可再生能源发电产业区域发展能力评价[J].价值工程,2012, 31(21):1-3.
[3]王仲瑀.基于模糊层次分析法的黑龙江新能源开发决策分析[J].大庆石油学院学报,2007, 31(2):96-98.
[4]唐有文.模糊层次分析法[J].青海师范大学学报:自然科学版,2002(3):19-23.
[5] Wang L, Xu L, Song H. Environmental performance evaluation of Beijing's energy use planning[J].Energy Policy, 2011, 39(6):3483-3495.
[2]杨静雅,刘辉舟.我国可再生能源发电产业区域发展能力评价[J].价值工程,2012, 31(21):1-3.
[3]王仲瑀.基于模糊层次分析法的黑龙江新能源开发决策分析[J].大庆石油学院学报,2007, 31(2):96-98.
[4]唐有文.模糊层次分析法[J].青海师范大学学报:自然科学版,2002(3):19-23.
[5] Wang L, Xu L, Song H. Environmental performance evaluation of Beijing's energy use planning[J].Energy Policy, 2011, 39(6):3483-3495.