青藏高原东北部强冷空气次数变化特征及其影响
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摘要
基于青藏高原东北部68个国家气象站资料,统计了1961—2015年各站和全区月、季、年强冷空气的次数资料,利用气候诊断方法分析了强冷空气的变化特征及其影响,结果表明:在空间尺度上,1961—2015年强冷空气次数全年20站、春季11站、夏季17站、秋季12站、冬季8站,呈显著的减少趋势。在时间尺度上,1961—2015年以来,青藏高原东北部年平均强冷空气次数每10年减少0.401次,呈显著的减少趋势;该区域夏季和秋季平均强冷空气次数每10年分别减少0.094、0.119次,也呈显著的减少趋势,春季和冬季每10年分别减少0.087、0.076次,减少的趋势不显著。在时段尺度上,青藏高原东北部年平均强冷空气次数1983—2014年呈显著减少趋势,而1962—1982年仅存在减少的趋势。1961—2015年青藏高原东北部年平均强冷空气次数减少是由年平均最低气温显著升高和年大风日数显著减少而导致的。
Based on the data from the national meteorological stations in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,the occurrence frequencies of monthly,quarterly and annual strong cold air for each station and the entire region from 1961 and 2015 are calculated,and then we analyzes the characteristics of strong cold air and its influences with the climate diagnosis method.It is found:In terms of spatial scale,from 1961 to 2015,there were strong cold air averagely in 20 stations collected throughout a year,11 stations in spring,17 stations in summer,12 stations in autumn and 8 stations in winter,showing a significant decline.In terms of time scale,from 1961 to 2015,the annual occurrence frequency of strong cold air influencing the northeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau decreased by 0.401 per 10 years,showing an obvious decrease tendency.In addition,the occurrence frequencies of strong cold air in summer and autumn in this region decreased by 0.094 and 0.119 per 10 years,respectively,also presenting a significant decline.However,the annual strong cold air events in spring and winter were decreased by 0.087 and 0.076 time per 10 years,respectively,without significant decline.Moreover,the occurrence frequency of strong cold air in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau showed a significant decline from 1983 to 2014 and insignificant decline from 1962 to 1982.With respect to its influence,the annual occurrence frequency of strong cold air in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau reduced due to the significant increase of average minimum temperature and a significant decrease in the number of strong wind days from 1961 to 2015.
Based on the data from the national meteorological stations in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,the occurrence frequencies of monthly,quarterly and annual strong cold air for each station and the entire region from 1961 and 2015 are calculated,and then we analyzes the characteristics of strong cold air and its influences with the climate diagnosis method.It is found:In terms of spatial scale,from 1961 to 2015,there were strong cold air averagely in 20 stations collected throughout a year,11 stations in spring,17 stations in summer,12 stations in autumn and 8 stations in winter,showing a significant decline.In terms of time scale,from 1961 to 2015,the annual occurrence frequency of strong cold air influencing the northeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau decreased by 0.401 per 10 years,showing an obvious decrease tendency.In addition,the occurrence frequencies of strong cold air in summer and autumn in this region decreased by 0.094 and 0.119 per 10 years,respectively,also presenting a significant decline.However,the annual strong cold air events in spring and winter were decreased by 0.087 and 0.076 time per 10 years,respectively,without significant decline.Moreover,the occurrence frequency of strong cold air in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau showed a significant decline from 1983 to 2014 and insignificant decline from 1962 to 1982.With respect to its influence,the annual occurrence frequency of strong cold air in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau reduced due to the significant increase of average minimum temperature and a significant decrease in the number of strong wind days from 1961 to 2015.
引文
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[20]郁淑华,高文良.高原低涡与西南涡结伴而行的不同活动形式个例的环境场和位涡分析[J].大气科学,2017,41(4):831-856.
[21]董海萍,赵思雄,曾庆存.冷空气强度对云南初夏强降水天气的影响[J].气象科技进展,2012,2(4):12-20.
[22]丁一汇,王遵娅,何金海,等.近50年来中国气候变化特征的再分析[J].气象学报,2004,62(2):228-236.
[23]张雪芹,孙杨,郑度,等.中国干旱区温度带界线对气候变暖的响应[J].地理学报,2011,66(9):1166-1178.
[24]王绍武,赵宗慈,唐国利.中国的气候变暖[J].国际政治研究,2009(4):1-11.
[25]李林,陈晓光,王振宇,等.青藏高原区域气候变化及其差异性研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2010,6(3):181-186.
[26]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:58-70.
[2]朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.天气学原理和方法[M].3版.北京:气象出版社,2000:272-288.
[3]邓承之,江玉华,周通.一次强降温过程中温度与降水分布及成因分析[J].气象科技,2013,41(3):544-551.
[4]娜仁突娅,邵明轩.一次强冷空气过程阻塞形势的诊断分析[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2001,37(3):340-347.
[5]杨松,朱乾根.东亚地区冬季大气低频振荡与冷空气活动关系的初步研究[J].南京气气象学院学报,1990,13(3):339-347.
[6]李峰,矫梅燕,丁一汇,等.北极区近30年环流的变化及对中国强冷事件的影响[J].高原气象,2006,25(2):209-219.
[7]余斌,朱乾根,徐祥德.源地冷空气强度变异与冷涌活动特征的数值试验[J].中国科学院研究生院学报,1992,9(4):356-366.
[8]谢永坤,刘玉芝,黄建平.秋季北极海冰对中国冬季气温的影响[J].气象学报,2014,72(4):703-710.
[9]朱毓颖,江静.中国冬季持续性低温事件的低频特征以及中低纬大气低频振荡对其的影响[J].热带气象学报,2013,29(4):649-655.
[10]杨贵名,孔期,毛冬艳,等.2008年初“低温雨雪冰冻”灾害天气的持续性原因分析[J].气象学报,2008,66(5):836-849.
[11]王允,张庆云,彭京备.东亚冬季环流季节内振荡与2008年初南方大雪关系[J].气候与环境研究,2008,13(4):459-467.
[12]张宗婕,钱维宏.中国冬半年区域持续性低温事件的前期信号[J].大气科学,2012,36(6):1269-1279.
[13]纪忠萍,谷德军,梁健,等.近55年影响广州的强冷空气及其准双周变化[J].大气科学,2007,31(5):999-1010.
[14]张伟,江静.我国冬季持续低温事件预报模型的建立[J].气象科学,2016,36(4):517-523.
[15]张伟,江静.热带大气季内振荡对中国冬季持续低温事件的影响[J].气象科学,2015,35(4):422-429.
[16]杨莲梅,曾勇,刘雯.北疆冬季持续性低温事件特征及大气环流异常分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(6):508-518.
[17]万瑜,曹兴,窦新英,等.中天山北坡春季寒潮型暴雪致灾成因分析[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(3):478-486.
[18]罗晓玲,刘明春,严志明.2011年3月12~14日河西走廊东部区域性寒潮天气分析[J].安徽农业科学,2012,40(9):5571-5574.
[19]冯军,龚建福,冯瑞娟.“2004.5.2~5”强降温、霜冻天气物理成因分析[J].甘肃科技,2005,21(2):91-93.
[20]郁淑华,高文良.高原低涡与西南涡结伴而行的不同活动形式个例的环境场和位涡分析[J].大气科学,2017,41(4):831-856.
[21]董海萍,赵思雄,曾庆存.冷空气强度对云南初夏强降水天气的影响[J].气象科技进展,2012,2(4):12-20.
[22]丁一汇,王遵娅,何金海,等.近50年来中国气候变化特征的再分析[J].气象学报,2004,62(2):228-236.
[23]张雪芹,孙杨,郑度,等.中国干旱区温度带界线对气候变暖的响应[J].地理学报,2011,66(9):1166-1178.
[24]王绍武,赵宗慈,唐国利.中国的气候变暖[J].国际政治研究,2009(4):1-11.
[25]李林,陈晓光,王振宇,等.青藏高原区域气候变化及其差异性研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2010,6(3):181-186.
[26]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:58-70.