基于模糊模式识别的海外油气储量开发风险性评价方法
|
摘要
海外油气储量开发风险性评价,是目标区块正式投入开发前保障项目获得开发效益的重要工作。针对海外油气储量特点和开发需求,基于实际已开发项目资料,通过分析开发投入和成本、影响因素和开发收益三者之间的关系,利用数学统计分析方法,建立了海外油气储量开发风险性分级评价体系。根据模糊模式识别基本原理,构建了不同风险性等级标准向量,并提出了反映单个开发项目储量特点的比较向量;通过计算比较向量与不同风险性等级标准向量的贴近度,来确定目标开发项目的风险性等级。实际应用表明,基于模糊模式识别的海外油气储量开发风险性评价,可以为海外油气项目的开发决策提供科学依据。
The risk evaluation for the development of overseas oil and gas reserves is an important item of work for guarantee of development profits that should be in advance of the formal production of targeted blocks.According to characteristics and development demands of overseas oil and gas,an evaluation classification system for risks of overseas oil and gas reserves development has been established through mathematical statistics analysis which roots in the actual data from developed projects and the analysis of the relationship among development investment and costs,influential factors and development profits.Based on the basic principles of the fuzzy pattern recognition,standard vectors to grade risks have been formed and comparative vectors to reflect reserve features of single development projects put forward;the risk grades can be determined in view of a match between comparative vectors and standard vectors of different risk grades.Actual application shows that the risk evaluation for overseas oil and gas reserve development based on the fuzzy pattern recognition can act as a scientific evidence for decision-making on the development of overseas oil and gas projects.
The risk evaluation for the development of overseas oil and gas reserves is an important item of work for guarantee of development profits that should be in advance of the formal production of targeted blocks.According to characteristics and development demands of overseas oil and gas,an evaluation classification system for risks of overseas oil and gas reserves development has been established through mathematical statistics analysis which roots in the actual data from developed projects and the analysis of the relationship among development investment and costs,influential factors and development profits.Based on the basic principles of the fuzzy pattern recognition,standard vectors to grade risks have been formed and comparative vectors to reflect reserve features of single development projects put forward;the risk grades can be determined in view of a match between comparative vectors and standard vectors of different risk grades.Actual application shows that the risk evaluation for overseas oil and gas reserve development based on the fuzzy pattern recognition can act as a scientific evidence for decision-making on the development of overseas oil and gas projects.
引文
[1]法贵方,衣艳静,刘娅昭,等.基于PRMS准则的煤层气资源/储量划分与评估[J].石油实验地质,2015,37(5):665-670.FA Guifang,YI Yanjing,LIU Yazhao,et al.Classification and evaluation of coalbed methane resources/reserves based on the Petroleum resources Management System(PRMS)rules[J].Petroleum Geology&Experiment,2015,37(5):665-670.
[2]秦伟军,付兆辉.油气预测储量区块升级评价方法[J].石油实验地质,2015,37(1):117-123.QIN Weijun,FU Zhaohui.Improving evaluation of predicted hydrocarbon reserve zones[J].Petroleum Geology&Experiment,2015,37(1):117-123.
[3]吕妍,魏文普,王佳,等.FPSO原油外输溢油风险分析及风险评价[J].中国海上油气,2013,25(5):90-92.LYan,WEI Wenpu,WANG Jia,et al.Oil spill risk analysis and risk assessment for oil offloading of FPSO[J].China Offshore Oil and Gas,2013,25(5):90-92.
[4]周方明,张明媛,袁永博.基于PCA-GA-BP的工程项目工期风险预测研究[J].工程管理学报,2011,25(5):534-538.ZHOU Fangming,ZHANG Mingyuan,YUAN Yongbo.Risk of project time based on PCA-GA-BP[J].Journal of Engineering Management,2011,25(5):534-538.
[5]孙利国,孙玉萍.海外油气项目投资风险评估及业务拓展分析[J].石油科技论坛,2016,35(5):29-32.SUN Liguo,SUN Yuping.Evaluation of investment risks foroverseas oil and gas projects and analysis of business expansion[J].Oil Forum,2016,35(5):29-32.
[6]王化增,迟国泰,程砚秋.基于BP神经网络的油气储量价值等级划分[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(6):41-46.WANG Huazeng,CHI Guotai,CHENG Yanqiu.Applying BP neural network to grade reserve value of oil and gas[J].China Population Resources and Environment,2010,20(6):41-46.
[7]石济开,邵超峰,鞠美庭.石油化工企业环境风险分级评[J].安全与环境学报,2015,15(2):324-329.SHI Jikai,SHAO Chaofeng,JU Meiting.On the evaluation index system of the environmental risk rank for the petrochemical industry[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2015,15(2):324-329.
[8]刘昌鸣.剩余经济可采储量及储量价值影响因素敏感程度分析[J].油气地质与采收率,2017,24(2):91-100.LIU Changming.Study on sensitivity of influencing factors of the remaining economic recoverable reserves and reserve value[J].Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency,2017,24(2):91-100.
[9]蒋伟娜,鞠斌山,翟光华,等.海外油气开发项目风险评价研究[J].资源与产业,2015,17(1):62-66.JIANG Weina,JU Binshan,ZHAI Guanghua,et al.Risk evaluation of overseas oil-gas development projects[J].Resource&Industries,2015,17(1):62-66.
[10]陈璐,陈民锋,王兆琪,等.基于成本级差分析的油气储量等级评价方法研究[J].陕西科技大学学报,2017,35(1):102-109.CHEN Lu,CHEN Minfeng,WANG Zhaoqi,et al.Evaluation study on value ranking of oil and gas reserves based on cost differential[J].Journal of Shaanxi University of Science&Technology,2017,35(1):102-109.
[11]胡健,刘永爱,蒲志仲,等.油气探明储量的价值分级模型设计[J].石油学报,1998,19(1):38-46.HU Jian,LIU Yongai,PU Zhizhong,et al.Design of value classification model for proven oil and gas reserves[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,1998,19(1):38-46.
[12]徐志科,谷留新.多对象多指标多级别模糊模式识别模型的构建[J].数学的时间与认识,2013,43(4):144-147.XU Zhike,GU Liuxin.Construction of the multi-target multiindex multilevel fuzzy identification model[J].Mathematics In Practice and Theory,2013,43(4):144-147.
[13]杨纶标,高英仪.模糊数学原理及应用[M].广州:华南理工大学出版社,1995.
[14]陆红梅,王雪青.基于模糊模式识别和BP神经网络的工程项目成本预测模型研究[J].项目管理技术,2013,11(5):57-62.LU Hongmei,WANG Xueqing.Research on project cost prediction model based on fuzzy pattern recognition and BP neural network[J].Project Management Technology,2013,11(5):57-62.
[2]秦伟军,付兆辉.油气预测储量区块升级评价方法[J].石油实验地质,2015,37(1):117-123.QIN Weijun,FU Zhaohui.Improving evaluation of predicted hydrocarbon reserve zones[J].Petroleum Geology&Experiment,2015,37(1):117-123.
[3]吕妍,魏文普,王佳,等.FPSO原油外输溢油风险分析及风险评价[J].中国海上油气,2013,25(5):90-92.LYan,WEI Wenpu,WANG Jia,et al.Oil spill risk analysis and risk assessment for oil offloading of FPSO[J].China Offshore Oil and Gas,2013,25(5):90-92.
[4]周方明,张明媛,袁永博.基于PCA-GA-BP的工程项目工期风险预测研究[J].工程管理学报,2011,25(5):534-538.ZHOU Fangming,ZHANG Mingyuan,YUAN Yongbo.Risk of project time based on PCA-GA-BP[J].Journal of Engineering Management,2011,25(5):534-538.
[5]孙利国,孙玉萍.海外油气项目投资风险评估及业务拓展分析[J].石油科技论坛,2016,35(5):29-32.SUN Liguo,SUN Yuping.Evaluation of investment risks foroverseas oil and gas projects and analysis of business expansion[J].Oil Forum,2016,35(5):29-32.
[6]王化增,迟国泰,程砚秋.基于BP神经网络的油气储量价值等级划分[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(6):41-46.WANG Huazeng,CHI Guotai,CHENG Yanqiu.Applying BP neural network to grade reserve value of oil and gas[J].China Population Resources and Environment,2010,20(6):41-46.
[7]石济开,邵超峰,鞠美庭.石油化工企业环境风险分级评[J].安全与环境学报,2015,15(2):324-329.SHI Jikai,SHAO Chaofeng,JU Meiting.On the evaluation index system of the environmental risk rank for the petrochemical industry[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2015,15(2):324-329.
[8]刘昌鸣.剩余经济可采储量及储量价值影响因素敏感程度分析[J].油气地质与采收率,2017,24(2):91-100.LIU Changming.Study on sensitivity of influencing factors of the remaining economic recoverable reserves and reserve value[J].Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency,2017,24(2):91-100.
[9]蒋伟娜,鞠斌山,翟光华,等.海外油气开发项目风险评价研究[J].资源与产业,2015,17(1):62-66.JIANG Weina,JU Binshan,ZHAI Guanghua,et al.Risk evaluation of overseas oil-gas development projects[J].Resource&Industries,2015,17(1):62-66.
[10]陈璐,陈民锋,王兆琪,等.基于成本级差分析的油气储量等级评价方法研究[J].陕西科技大学学报,2017,35(1):102-109.CHEN Lu,CHEN Minfeng,WANG Zhaoqi,et al.Evaluation study on value ranking of oil and gas reserves based on cost differential[J].Journal of Shaanxi University of Science&Technology,2017,35(1):102-109.
[11]胡健,刘永爱,蒲志仲,等.油气探明储量的价值分级模型设计[J].石油学报,1998,19(1):38-46.HU Jian,LIU Yongai,PU Zhizhong,et al.Design of value classification model for proven oil and gas reserves[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,1998,19(1):38-46.
[12]徐志科,谷留新.多对象多指标多级别模糊模式识别模型的构建[J].数学的时间与认识,2013,43(4):144-147.XU Zhike,GU Liuxin.Construction of the multi-target multiindex multilevel fuzzy identification model[J].Mathematics In Practice and Theory,2013,43(4):144-147.
[13]杨纶标,高英仪.模糊数学原理及应用[M].广州:华南理工大学出版社,1995.
[14]陆红梅,王雪青.基于模糊模式识别和BP神经网络的工程项目成本预测模型研究[J].项目管理技术,2013,11(5):57-62.LU Hongmei,WANG Xueqing.Research on project cost prediction model based on fuzzy pattern recognition and BP neural network[J].Project Management Technology,2013,11(5):57-62.