基于水功能区控制单元的流域突发性水污染事件风险评价区划及其应用
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摘要
以水功能区控制单元为基础,结合子流域划分工作单元。采用压力-状态-响应(PSR)环境分析模型构建环境风险源危险性指标体系,进行流域环境风险源识别及其危险性等级评价。增加"环境风险源下游特征"指标以考虑风险源流经下游重要性不同的水功能区(工作单元)对其本身危险性等级的影响。结合指标数据、标准和权重,采用模糊综合评价法计算风险源的危险性(以及工作单元的脆弱性等级)。参考河流一维污染物衰减模型,建立工作单元危险性等级评价方法。工作单元危险性等级由两部分叠加构成,即本单元风险源的危险性等级和上游风险源通过河流对下游工作单元危险性的影响。结合工作单元的危险性和脆弱性等级,通过风险矩阵评价工作单元的风险等级。在此基础上,在同一水功能区控制单元,合并风险相同的工作单元,实现流域风险评价区划。将上述方法应用在滦河流域中上游。研究表明,滦河流域中上游共55个风险区,其中高风险区I有3个,较高风险区II有15个,较低风险区Ⅲ有14个,低风险区IV有23个,说明滦河流域中上游整体风险性偏低;并对不同等级风险区提出相应的管理方案。
Based on the water function area control unit,and combined with sub watershed,we divided the research units. The risk index system of environmental risk sources was constructed by using the pressure state response(PSR) environment analysis model to identify the environmental risk sources and evaluate the risk level.The downstream characteristics of the environmental risk source is added to take into account the impact of the water function areas(work units) on the risk level of the risk sources through the downstream importance of the water.Combined with index data,standards and weights,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to calculate the risk of risk sources(and the vulnerability level of work units). Referring to the one-dimensional pollutant convection diffusion model of rivers,a risk assessment method for working units is established. The risk level of the unit is composed of two parts,that is,the risk level of the source of this unit and the impact of the upstream risk source on the risk of the downstream work unit. Combining risk and vulnerability level of work unit,risk level of work unit is evaluated through risk matrix. On the basis of this,the watershed risk assessment zoning is implemented in the same water function area control unit and the working unit with the same risk. The above method is applied to the upper and middle reaches of the Luanhe River Basin. The study shows that there are 55 risk zones in the upper and middle reaches of the Luanhe River Basin,of which there are 3 I in high risk areas,15 in higher risk areas,14 in the lower risk area and 23 in the low risk area,and 23 in the low risk area,indicating that the overall risk of the upper and middle upper reaches of the Luanhe River Basin is low,and the management schemes for different grade risk areas are put forward.
Based on the water function area control unit,and combined with sub watershed,we divided the research units. The risk index system of environmental risk sources was constructed by using the pressure state response(PSR) environment analysis model to identify the environmental risk sources and evaluate the risk level.The downstream characteristics of the environmental risk source is added to take into account the impact of the water function areas(work units) on the risk level of the risk sources through the downstream importance of the water.Combined with index data,standards and weights,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to calculate the risk of risk sources(and the vulnerability level of work units). Referring to the one-dimensional pollutant convection diffusion model of rivers,a risk assessment method for working units is established. The risk level of the unit is composed of two parts,that is,the risk level of the source of this unit and the impact of the upstream risk source on the risk of the downstream work unit. Combining risk and vulnerability level of work unit,risk level of work unit is evaluated through risk matrix. On the basis of this,the watershed risk assessment zoning is implemented in the same water function area control unit and the working unit with the same risk. The above method is applied to the upper and middle reaches of the Luanhe River Basin. The study shows that there are 55 risk zones in the upper and middle reaches of the Luanhe River Basin,of which there are 3 I in high risk areas,15 in higher risk areas,14 in the lower risk area and 23 in the low risk area,and 23 in the low risk area,indicating that the overall risk of the upper and middle upper reaches of the Luanhe River Basin is low,and the management schemes for different grade risk areas are put forward.
引文
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[2]黄崇福,刘安林,王野,等.灾害风险基本定义的探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2010,19(6):8-16.
[3]Orvos D R,Jr J C.Developing a risk assessment strategy for the Chesapeake Bay[J].Hydrobiologia,1991,215(3):189-203.
[4]Blair A N,Ayyub B M,Bender W J.Fuzzy stochastic risk-based decision analysis with the mobile offshore base as a case study[J].Marine Structures,2001,14(1/2):69-88.
[5]刘杨华,敖红光,冯玉杰,等.环境风险评价研究进展[J].环境科学与管理,2011,36(8):159-163.
[6]许妍,马明辉,高俊峰.流域生态风险评估方法研究——以太湖流域为例[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(9):1693-1701.
[7]毛海峰.论安全科学的若干基本规律与概念[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(9):12-16.
[8]谢志刚,周晶.重新认识风险这个概念[J].保险研究,2013(2):101-108.
[9]Hou D,Ge X,Huang P,et al.A real-time,dynamic earlywarning model based on uncertainty analysis and risk assessment for sudden water pollution accidents[J].Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2014,21(14):8878-92.
[10]Liu R,Liu J,Zhang Z,et al.Accidental water pollution risk analysis of mine tailings ponds in guanting reservoir watershed,Zhangjiakou City,China[J].International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,2015,12(12):15269-15284.
[11]薛鹏丽,曾维华.上海市突发环境污染事故风险区划[J].中国环境科学,2011,31(10):1743-1750.
[12]曲常胜,毕军,黄蕾,等.我国区域环境风险动态综合评价研究[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2010,46(3):477-482.
[13]张珂,刘仁志,张志娇,等.流域突发性水污染事故风险评价方法及其应用[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2014,22(4):675-684.
[14]刘家宏,胡剑,褚俊英,等.缺资料地区河流突发性水污染多尺度风险评价[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2012,52(6):830-835.
[15]曾维华,宋永会,姚新,等.多尺度突发环境污染事故风险区划[M].北京:科学出版社,2013:5-17.
[16]水利部水资源司,水利部水利水电规划设计总院.全国重要江河湖泊水功能区划手册[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2014:5-83.
[17]国务院办公厅.国家突发环境事件应急预案[Z].北京:人民出版社,2015.
[18]曲常胜,毕军,葛怡,等.基于风险系统理论的区域环境风险优化管理[J].环境科学与技术,2009,32(11):169.
[19]陈超,贾尔恒·阿哈提,文方等.西北内陆典型流域水环境风险源识别研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2014,25(1):188-190.
[20]张芳.南四湖流域突发水污染事故风险源识别和评价研究[D].济南:山东师范大学,2011.
[21]宋雅珊.松花江流域佳木斯段水环境风险源评价[D].哈尔滨:黑龙江大学,2013.
[22]唐行鹏.流域突发性水污染风险区划与管理方法研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2012.
[23]张兴平,朱建强.水生态、水环境问题及其对策[J].环境科学与管理,2012,37(S1):8.
[24]GB-8978污水综合排放标准[S].北京:中国环境科学出版社,1996.
[25]GB5749生活饮用水卫生标准[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2006.
[26]兰冬东,刘仁志,曾维华.区域环境污染事件风险分区技术及其应用[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2009,17(s1):82-91.
[27]中华人民共和国卫生部.医疗机构设置标准(试行)[EB/OL].(1994)[2017-08-16].http://www.moh.gov.cn/mohzcfgs/pgz/200804/18713.shtml.
[28]GB/T 25173水域纳污能力计算规程[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2010.
[29]蒋勇军,袁道先,章程,等.典型岩溶农业区土地利用变化对土壤性质的影响——以云南小江流域为例[J].地理学报,2005,60(5):751-760.
[30]GB 3838-2002地表水环境质量标准[S].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2003.
[31]杜鹃,何飞,史培军.湘江流域洪水灾害综合风险评价[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(6):38-44.
[32]中国河湖大典编纂委员会.中国河湖大典——海河卷[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2013:214-219.