基于SOA-WNN的光伏短期输出功率预测
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摘要
为了进一步提高预测的准确性,本文提出了一种基于人群搜索算法-小波神经网络SOA-WNN(seeker optimization algorithm-wavelet neural network)的光伏短期输出功率预测算法,利用SOA在速度及全局搜索上的优势对WNN进行改进,使WNN中权值与小波因子等参数得到优化。通过与传统的WNN预测方法以及遗传算法优化的WNN预测算法进行比较,结果显示所提方法有效地提高了光伏短期输出功率预测的稳定性与准确性,具有较高的实用价值。
To further improve the forecasting accuracy,a forecasting method for photovoltaic short-term output power based on seeker optimization algorithm-wavelet neural network(SOA-WNN)is proposed.By taking advantages of SOA,such as high speed and global search,WNN is modified to optimize its parameters including weight and wavelet factor.Compared with the traditional WNN forecasting method and the WNN forecasting methodoptimized bygenetic algorithm,the proposed method effectively improves the stability and accuracy of photovoltaic short-term power output forecasting,indicating that it has higher practical values.
To further improve the forecasting accuracy,a forecasting method for photovoltaic short-term output power based on seeker optimization algorithm-wavelet neural network(SOA-WNN)is proposed.By taking advantages of SOA,such as high speed and global search,WNN is modified to optimize its parameters including weight and wavelet factor.Compared with the traditional WNN forecasting method and the WNN forecasting methodoptimized bygenetic algorithm,the proposed method effectively improves the stability and accuracy of photovoltaic short-term power output forecasting,indicating that it has higher practical values.
引文
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[10]赵文清,郭丙旭,李刚,等(Zhao Wenqing,Guo Bingxu,Li Gang,et al).基于智能水滴算法优化Elman神经网络的光伏电站输出功率预测(Output power forecast of PV plant based on Elman neural network optimized by intelligent water drop algorithm)[J].太阳能学报(Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica),2017,38(6):1553-1559.
[11]于秋玲,许长清,李珊,等(Yu Qiuling,Xu Changqing,Li Shan,et al).基于模糊聚类和支持向量机的短期光伏功率预测(Application of fuzzy clustering algorithm and support vector machine to short-term forecasting of PV power)[J].电力系统及其自动化学报(Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA),2016,28(12):115-118,129.
[12]耿博,高贞彦,白恒远,等(Geng Bo,Gao Zhenyan,Bai Hengyuan,et al).结合相似日GA-BP神经网络的光伏发电预测(PV generation forecasting combined with similar days and GA-BP neural network)[J].电力系统及其自动化学报(Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA),2017,29(6):118-123.
[2]高阳,张碧玲,毛京丽,等(Gao Yang,Zhang Biling,Mao Jingli,et al).基于机器学习的自适应光伏超短期出力预测模型(Machine learning-basedadaptive very-shortterm forecast model for photovoltaic power)[J].电网技术(Power System Technology),2015,39(2):307-311.
[3]王守相,张娜(Wang Shouxiang,Zhang Na).基于灰色神经网络组合模型的光伏短期出力预测(Short-term output power forecast of photovoltaic based on a grey and neural network hybrid model)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2012,36(19):37-41.
[4]丁明,刘志,毕锐,等(Ding Ming,Liu Zhi,Bi Rui,et al).基于灰色系统校正-小波神经网络的光伏功率预测(Photovoltaic output prediction based on grey system correction-wavelet neural network)[J].电网技术(Power System Technology),2015,39(9):2438-2443.
[5]代倩,段善旭,蔡涛,等(Dai Qian,Duan Shanxu,Cai Tao,et al).基于天气类型聚类识别的光伏系统短期无辐照度发电预测模型研究(Short-term generation system forecasting model without irradiation based on weather type clustering)[J].中国电机工程学报(Proceedings of the CSEE),2011,31(34):28-35.
[6]张程熠,唐雅洁,李永杰,等(Zhang Chengyi,Tang Yajie,Li Yongjie,et al).适用于小样本的神经网络光伏预测方法(Photovoltaic power forecast based on neural network with a small number of samples)[J].电力自动化设备(Electric Power Automation Equipment),2017,31(1):101-106,111.
[7]丁明,王磊,毕锐(Ding Ming,Wang Lei,Bi Rui).基于改进BP神经网络的光伏发电系统输出功率短期预测模型(A short-term prediction model to forecast output of photovoltaic system based on improved BP neural network)[J].电力系统保护与控制(Power System Protection and Control),2012,40(11):93-99,148.
[8]张佳伟,张自嘉(Zhang Jiawei,Zhang Zijia).基于PSO-BP神经网络的短期光伏系统发电预测(Short-term photovoltaic system power forecasting based on PSO-BP neural network)[J].可再生能源(Renewable Energy Resources),2012,30(8):28-32.
[9]罗毅,千雨乐(Luo Yi,Qian Yule).基于相空间重构和小波神经网络的光伏阵列发电量预测(Power generation forecast of PV array based on phase space reconstruction and wavelet neural network)[J].太阳能学报(Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica),2014,35(6):992-997.
[10]赵文清,郭丙旭,李刚,等(Zhao Wenqing,Guo Bingxu,Li Gang,et al).基于智能水滴算法优化Elman神经网络的光伏电站输出功率预测(Output power forecast of PV plant based on Elman neural network optimized by intelligent water drop algorithm)[J].太阳能学报(Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica),2017,38(6):1553-1559.
[11]于秋玲,许长清,李珊,等(Yu Qiuling,Xu Changqing,Li Shan,et al).基于模糊聚类和支持向量机的短期光伏功率预测(Application of fuzzy clustering algorithm and support vector machine to short-term forecasting of PV power)[J].电力系统及其自动化学报(Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA),2016,28(12):115-118,129.
[12]耿博,高贞彦,白恒远,等(Geng Bo,Gao Zhenyan,Bai Hengyuan,et al).结合相似日GA-BP神经网络的光伏发电预测(PV generation forecasting combined with similar days and GA-BP neural network)[J].电力系统及其自动化学报(Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA),2017,29(6):118-123.