LAPS地面资料在低纬山区的分析效果检验
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摘要
为了检验LAPS系统在低纬山区的分析应用效果,对2016年贵州LAPS分析值与气象监测要素进行对比。结果表明:气温、相对湿度、风速的相关系数逐渐降低,但均方根误差由小到大分别为风速、气温、相对湿度。分析值与监测实况间的差异与贵州的地形分布有关:气温准确率呈东高西低;风力低于1.8 m/s时分析值偏小,高于1.8 m/s时分析值偏大,u、v风的准确率较低;相对湿度准确率西高东低;能见度等级准确率为77.82%,且随海拔高度增高准确率偏低。可见,在低纬山区LAPS分析的气温、风速和能见度等级偏差小,实用性较高;能见度数值和相对湿度相关性通过信度检验,可参考使用;风向在低纬山区的可用性较差。
The paper aims to test the application effect of LAPS system in low latitude mountain area. We compared the LAPS data in 2016 with the meteorological monitoring elements in Guizhou at the same time.The results showed that: the correlation coefficients between the LAPS values and the actual data in temperature, relative humidity and wind speed decreased gradually, but the RMS errors of wind speed, air temperature and relative humidity were in ascending order; the differences between the LAPS analysis value and the actual observed value were obviously correlated with the topography of Guizhou; the accuracy of temperature was high in the east and low in the west of Guizhou, and the LAPS analysis value was smaller when the wind was lower than 1.8 m/s, and was larger when the wind was higher than 1.8 m/s, and the accuracy of u, v wind was lower; the accuracy of the relative humidity was high in the west and low in the east; the accuracy of visibility grade was 77.82%, and the higher the altitude, the lower the accuracy was. Therefore, the errors of air temperature, wind speed and visibility grade are small in low latitude mountain area with high practicability; the correlation between the visibility and relative humidity passes the reliability test, which can be used for reference; the availability of wind direction in low latitude mountain area is poor.
The paper aims to test the application effect of LAPS system in low latitude mountain area. We compared the LAPS data in 2016 with the meteorological monitoring elements in Guizhou at the same time.The results showed that: the correlation coefficients between the LAPS values and the actual data in temperature, relative humidity and wind speed decreased gradually, but the RMS errors of wind speed, air temperature and relative humidity were in ascending order; the differences between the LAPS analysis value and the actual observed value were obviously correlated with the topography of Guizhou; the accuracy of temperature was high in the east and low in the west of Guizhou, and the LAPS analysis value was smaller when the wind was lower than 1.8 m/s, and was larger when the wind was higher than 1.8 m/s, and the accuracy of u, v wind was lower; the accuracy of the relative humidity was high in the west and low in the east; the accuracy of visibility grade was 77.82%, and the higher the altitude, the lower the accuracy was. Therefore, the errors of air temperature, wind speed and visibility grade are small in low latitude mountain area with high practicability; the correlation between the visibility and relative humidity passes the reliability test, which can be used for reference; the availability of wind direction in low latitude mountain area is poor.
引文
[1]Mcginley J A,Albers S C,Stamus P A.Validation of a Composite Convective Index as Defined by a Real-Time Local Analysis System[J].Weather&Forecasting,2009,6(3):565-572.
[2]Albers S C,Mcginley J A,Birkenheuer D L,et al.The Local Analysis and Prediction System(LAPS):Analysis of Clouds,Precipitation,and Temperature[J].Weather and Forecasting,1996,11(3):273-287.
[3]李红莉,张兵,陈波.局地分析和预报系统(LAPS)及其应用[J].气象科技,2008,36(1):20-24.
[4]李红莉,张文刚,付志康,等.一次暴雨过程的LAPS分析场与多源观测对比分析[J].暴雨灾害,2017,36(3):207-216.
[5]李超,唐千红,陈宇,等.多源数据融合系统LAPS的研究进展及其在实况数据服务中的应用[J].气象科技进展,2017,7(2):32-38.
[6]李红莉,崔春光,王志斌,等.中尺度分析系统LAPS应用雷达资料的个例研究[J].高原气象,2009,28(6):1443-1452.
[7]刘春文,林永辉.局地分析预报系统LAPS对多种探测资料融合研究及评估[J].云南大学学报:自然科学版,2013,35(s1):226-235.
[8]张涛,苗春生,王新.LAPS与STMAS地面气温融合效果对比试验.高原气象,2014,33(3):743-752
[9]苗春生,高雅,王坚红.HY-2卫星近海面风场资料融合及在海上天气系统分析中的应用[J].海洋预报,2015,32(4):12-22.
[10]刘春文,林永辉,曹艳察.局地分析预报系统在GRAPES模式中的应用[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(2):162-170.
[11]彭军,张立凤,邓冰.基于laps分析的wrf模式逐时气温精细化预报释用[J].热带气象学报,2013(6):1037-1045.
[12]周后福,郭品文,翟菁,等.LAPS分析场资料在暴雨中尺度分析中的应用[J].高原气象,2010,29(2):461-470.
[13]李国静,徐幼平,成巍,等.一次大暴雨过程的多普勒雷达资料同化的敏感性试验.暴雨灾害,2009,28(2):97-103.
[14]李红莉,崔春光,赖安伟.多途径探测资料的融合及应用评估[C].暴雨新型探测资料应用技术研讨会论文集,2011:158.
[15]夏晓玲,杜正静,罗敬.贵州省LAPS系统的本地化以及初步评估[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(29):183-188.
[16]旷达,沈艳,牛铮,等.卫星反演降水产品误差随时空分辨率和雨强的变化特征分析[J].遥感信息,2012,27(4):75-81.
[17]王慧鹏,王春明,项杰,等.QuikSCAT卫星散射计矢量风检验及南海月平均风场特征分析[J].气象科学,2014,34(1):54-59.
[18]吴曼丽,沈玉敏,梁寒.辽宁中尺度数值模式产品和T213产品对比检验分析[J].气象科技,2009,37(3):276-280.
[19]董俊玲,韩志伟,张仁健,等.WRF模式对中国城市和半干旱地区气象要素的模拟检验和对比分析[J].气象科学,2011,31(4):484-492.
[20]孙逸涵,何晓凤,周荣卫.不同背景场近地层风速的预报效果检验[J].资源科学,2013,35(12):2481-2490.
[21]李淑娟,于晓晶,琚陈相,等.DOGRAFS温度和风场的预报检验[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2014(6):1-10.
[2]Albers S C,Mcginley J A,Birkenheuer D L,et al.The Local Analysis and Prediction System(LAPS):Analysis of Clouds,Precipitation,and Temperature[J].Weather and Forecasting,1996,11(3):273-287.
[3]李红莉,张兵,陈波.局地分析和预报系统(LAPS)及其应用[J].气象科技,2008,36(1):20-24.
[4]李红莉,张文刚,付志康,等.一次暴雨过程的LAPS分析场与多源观测对比分析[J].暴雨灾害,2017,36(3):207-216.
[5]李超,唐千红,陈宇,等.多源数据融合系统LAPS的研究进展及其在实况数据服务中的应用[J].气象科技进展,2017,7(2):32-38.
[6]李红莉,崔春光,王志斌,等.中尺度分析系统LAPS应用雷达资料的个例研究[J].高原气象,2009,28(6):1443-1452.
[7]刘春文,林永辉.局地分析预报系统LAPS对多种探测资料融合研究及评估[J].云南大学学报:自然科学版,2013,35(s1):226-235.
[8]张涛,苗春生,王新.LAPS与STMAS地面气温融合效果对比试验.高原气象,2014,33(3):743-752
[9]苗春生,高雅,王坚红.HY-2卫星近海面风场资料融合及在海上天气系统分析中的应用[J].海洋预报,2015,32(4):12-22.
[10]刘春文,林永辉,曹艳察.局地分析预报系统在GRAPES模式中的应用[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(2):162-170.
[11]彭军,张立凤,邓冰.基于laps分析的wrf模式逐时气温精细化预报释用[J].热带气象学报,2013(6):1037-1045.
[12]周后福,郭品文,翟菁,等.LAPS分析场资料在暴雨中尺度分析中的应用[J].高原气象,2010,29(2):461-470.
[13]李国静,徐幼平,成巍,等.一次大暴雨过程的多普勒雷达资料同化的敏感性试验.暴雨灾害,2009,28(2):97-103.
[14]李红莉,崔春光,赖安伟.多途径探测资料的融合及应用评估[C].暴雨新型探测资料应用技术研讨会论文集,2011:158.
[15]夏晓玲,杜正静,罗敬.贵州省LAPS系统的本地化以及初步评估[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(29):183-188.
[16]旷达,沈艳,牛铮,等.卫星反演降水产品误差随时空分辨率和雨强的变化特征分析[J].遥感信息,2012,27(4):75-81.
[17]王慧鹏,王春明,项杰,等.QuikSCAT卫星散射计矢量风检验及南海月平均风场特征分析[J].气象科学,2014,34(1):54-59.
[18]吴曼丽,沈玉敏,梁寒.辽宁中尺度数值模式产品和T213产品对比检验分析[J].气象科技,2009,37(3):276-280.
[19]董俊玲,韩志伟,张仁健,等.WRF模式对中国城市和半干旱地区气象要素的模拟检验和对比分析[J].气象科学,2011,31(4):484-492.
[20]孙逸涵,何晓凤,周荣卫.不同背景场近地层风速的预报效果检验[J].资源科学,2013,35(12):2481-2490.
[21]李淑娟,于晓晶,琚陈相,等.DOGRAFS温度和风场的预报检验[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2014(6):1-10.