2018年春霜冻对江西省北部茶叶生产影响的定量评估
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摘要
为探究江西省北部茶区春霜冻发生特点,深入开展茶叶春霜冻灾害定量评估工作,采用实地调查方式,获取江西省北部12个茶场2018年4月7—9日春霜冻的灾情资料和同期气象观测资料,采用加权求和法构建茶叶春霜冻灾害损失定量评估模型,对春霜冻灾害县进行灾害定量评估和检验。结果表明:婺源、浮梁等江西省北部茶叶主产县达到轻—重度春霜冻气象灾害等级,灾害指标等级计算结果与实地灾情调查结果较一致;轻度、中度、重度气象灾害等级的茶场减产率依次为10%—30%、30%—50%和50%以上;根据不同气象灾害等级的受灾面积及其减产率构建江西省北部茶叶春霜冻灾害损失定量评估模型,计算得到此次春霜冻灾害过程造成婺源县春茶直接经济损失为1.23亿元,模型评估结果和实际灾情相一致,模型能较为客观、准确的评估春霜冻灾害对茶叶生产造成的损失。
To explore the characteristics of spring frost and quantitatively evaluate and its effect on tea in northern Jiangxi,the spring frost disasters in 12 tea farms of northern Jiangxi were investigated in situ,combined with the meteorological observations,aquantitative evaluation model of spring tea frost damage was established,and the serious suffered counties caused by spring frost disaster were quantitatively evaluated and tested.The results showed that the main tea producing counties including Wuyuan and Fuliang reached light to severe meteorological disaster grade of spring frost,and the calculated index grades of spring frost were in relative good agreement with the results of field disaster investigation.The yield reduction rate was 10%-30% for light meteorological disasters,30%-50% for moderate disasters and over 50% for severe disasters,respectively.The quantitative evaluation model was established based on the disaster area of different meteorological disaster grades and its yield reduction rate,and the direct economic loss of spring tea in Wuyuan was evaluated to be 123 miliion yuan estimated by the model,which was consistent with the actual condition.Thus,the quantitative evaluation model can be used to objectively and accurately evaluate the economic loss of tea caused by spring frost.
To explore the characteristics of spring frost and quantitatively evaluate and its effect on tea in northern Jiangxi,the spring frost disasters in 12 tea farms of northern Jiangxi were investigated in situ,combined with the meteorological observations,aquantitative evaluation model of spring tea frost damage was established,and the serious suffered counties caused by spring frost disaster were quantitatively evaluated and tested.The results showed that the main tea producing counties including Wuyuan and Fuliang reached light to severe meteorological disaster grade of spring frost,and the calculated index grades of spring frost were in relative good agreement with the results of field disaster investigation.The yield reduction rate was 10%-30% for light meteorological disasters,30%-50% for moderate disasters and over 50% for severe disasters,respectively.The quantitative evaluation model was established based on the disaster area of different meteorological disaster grades and its yield reduction rate,and the direct economic loss of spring tea in Wuyuan was evaluated to be 123 miliion yuan estimated by the model,which was consistent with the actual condition.Thus,the quantitative evaluation model can be used to objectively and accurately evaluate the economic loss of tea caused by spring frost.
引文
程丹.2018.婺源县第一批春茶采摘遭受倒春寒肆虐[EB/OL].(2018-04-11).https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5pRLvEFHiDmvEQ_kSGFrMw.Cheng D.2018.The mother batch of spring tea in Fuliang was suffered from frost by last spring cold[EB/OL].(2018-04-11).https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5pRLvEFHiDmvEQ_kSGFrMw.(in Chinese)
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吴娴,王玉,庄亮.2016.基于高分辨率格点数据集的中国气温与降水时空分布及变化趋势分析[J].气象与减灾研究,39(4):241-251.Wu X,Wang Y,Zhuang L.2016.Spatio temporal distribution and variation trend of temperature and precipitation over China based on high resolution gridded datasets[J].Meteor Disaster Reduction Res,39(4):241-251.(in Chinese)
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张澜夕.2009.江西茶叶产业化发展对策研究[D].南昌:南昌大学.Zhang L X.2009.The research of development strategies based on Jiangxi tea industrialization[D].Nanchang:Nanchang University.(in Chinese)
张旭晖,居为民,蒯志敏,等.2013.江苏春季霜冻气候变化特征及其未来可能变化趋势[J].大气科学学报,36(6):666-673.Zhang X H,Ju W M,Kuai Z M,et al.2013.Historical variation and possible future trends of spring frost in Jiangsu province[J].Trans Atmos Sci,36(6):666-673.(in Chinese)
金志凤,胡波,严甲真,等.2014.浙江省茶叶农业气象灾害风险评价[J].生态学杂志,33(3):771-777.Jin Z F,Hu B,Yan J Z,et al.2014.Agro-meteorological disaster risk evaluation of tea planting in Zhejiang province[J].Chin J Ecol,33(3):771-777.(in Chinese)
李仁忠,金志凤,杨再强,等.2016.浙江省茶树春霜冻害气象指标的修订[J].生态学杂志,35(10):2659-2666.Li R Z,Jin Z F,Yang Z Q,et al.2014.Revision on meteorological indices of spring frost disaster for Camellia sinensis in Zhejiang province[J].Chin J Ecol,35(10):2659-2666.(in Chinese)
李时睿,王治海,杨再强,等.2014.江南茶区茶叶生产现状和气候资源特征分析[J].干旱气象,32(6):1007-1014.Li S R,Wang ZH,Yang Z Q,et al.2014.Analysis on production of tea plant and climate characteristics in tea regions in Southern Yangtze river[J].Arid Meteor,32(6):1007-1014.(in Chinese)
李亚春,王友美,巫丽君,等.2014.2013年春季低温霜冻对苏南茶树影响的评估[J].江苏农业科学,42(8):248-250.Li Y C,Wang Y M,Wu L J,et al.2014.Evaluation on the effect of spring frost on tea in southern Jiangsu in 2013[J].Jiangsu Agri Sci,42(8):248-250.(in Chinese)
刘瑞娜,陈鹏.2016.安徽省茶叶春霜冻发生规律及风险分布[J].气象科技,44(6):1060-1065.Liu R N,Chen P.2016.Occurrence regularity od tea spring frost and its risk distribution in Anhui province[J].Meteor Sci Technol,44(6):1060-1065.(in Chinese)
王旭.2006.茶树无性系良种繁殖推广的实践与体会[J].茶叶通讯,33(4):24-26.Wang X.2006.Practice and experience of breeding and popularizing of tea clones[J].Tea Communication,33(4):24-26.(in Chinese)
吴娴,王玉,庄亮.2016.基于高分辨率格点数据集的中国气温与降水时空分布及变化趋势分析[J].气象与减灾研究,39(4):241-251.Wu X,Wang Y,Zhuang L.2016.Spatio temporal distribution and variation trend of temperature and precipitation over China based on high resolution gridded datasets[J].Meteor Disaster Reduction Res,39(4):241-251.(in Chinese)
薛海源,陈海山,华文剑.2015.内蒙古地区植被对气候变化的响应[J].气象与减灾研究,38(2):8-15.Xue H Y,Chen H S,Hua W J.2015.Responses of vegetation to climate change in Inner Mongolia[J].Meteor Disaster Reduction Res,38(2):8-15.(in Chinese)
叶建刚,金志凤,杨再强.2013.4月7日霜冻对绍兴茶叶影响的评估[J].浙江农业科学,1(9):1085-1088.Ye J G,Jin Z F,Yang ZQ.2013.Evaluation of frost effect on Shaoxing tea on April 7th[J].J Zhejiang Agri Sci,1(9):1085-1088.(in Chinese)
张澜夕.2009.江西茶叶产业化发展对策研究[D].南昌:南昌大学.Zhang L X.2009.The research of development strategies based on Jiangxi tea industrialization[D].Nanchang:Nanchang University.(in Chinese)
张旭晖,居为民,蒯志敏,等.2013.江苏春季霜冻气候变化特征及其未来可能变化趋势[J].大气科学学报,36(6):666-673.Zhang X H,Ju W M,Kuai Z M,et al.2013.Historical variation and possible future trends of spring frost in Jiangsu province[J].Trans Atmos Sci,36(6):666-673.(in Chinese)