金融科技的社交网络关注:理论模型及其实证分析
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摘要
本文研究舆情话题在社交网络上的传播机制与社交网络话题选择决策机制,分析关系羊群效应在社交网络中的实现机制,构建金融科技关注指数。实证研究发现:(1)追求收益的投机心理促使社交网络中的舆情主体进行相同的选择决策,在紧密度复杂的网络中更易产生关系羊群效应;(2)中国社交网络对金融科技话题的关注实际是对金融科技公司的关注;(3)金融科技公司的社交网络关注是产生金融科技话题搜索变化的主要原因。
The authors of this paper research the dissemination mechanism of public opinion topics and the decisionmaking mechanism of topic selection in social networks, and analyze the realization mechanism of relational herding effect in social networks, and construct the fintech concern index. The empirical analysis shows that,(1) the speculative psychology of pursuing profits encourages the public opinion subjects in social networks to make the same choice decision, and the herding effect is produced easier in the tight and complex networks;(2) the Chinese social network concern on fintech topics is actually a concern on fintech companies;(3) the social network concern of fintech companies is the main reason for change in fintech topic search.
The authors of this paper research the dissemination mechanism of public opinion topics and the decisionmaking mechanism of topic selection in social networks, and analyze the realization mechanism of relational herding effect in social networks, and construct the fintech concern index. The empirical analysis shows that,(1) the speculative psychology of pursuing profits encourages the public opinion subjects in social networks to make the same choice decision, and the herding effect is produced easier in the tight and complex networks;(2) the Chinese social network concern on fintech topics is actually a concern on fintech companies;(3) the social network concern of fintech companies is the main reason for change in fintech topic search.
引文
卞曰瑭、李金生、许露,2017.网络协调博弈策略下的股市羊群行为演化模型及仿真[J].中国管理科学,(25):10-19.韩少春、刘云、张彦超,2011.基于动态演化博弈论的舆论传播羊群效应[J].系统工程学报,(26):275-281.刘海飞、许金涛、柏巍、李心丹,2017.社交网络、投资者关注与股价同步性[J].管理科学学报,(20):53-62.刘锦德、刘咏梅,2013.基于不完全信息演化博弈模型的网络舆情传播羊群行为[J].国防科技大学学报,(35):96-101.
罗鹏、陈义国、许传华,2018.百度搜索、风险感知与金融风险预测---基于行为金融学的视角[J].金融论坛,(1):39-51.
孟雪井、孟祥兰、胡杨洋,2016.基于文本挖掘和百度指数的投资者情绪指数研究[J].宏观经济研究,(1):144-153.
王书斌、谭中明、陈艺云,2017.P2P网贷债权市场中违约舆情的传染机制[J].金融论坛,(11):56-69.
吴江、张辉,2013.机构投资者羊群行为的演化博弈分析[J].系统管理学报,(22):466-471.
曾建光,2015.网络安全风险感知与互联网金融的资产定价[J].经济研究,(7):131-145.
Kim,B.J.,Trusina,A.,and Holme,P.,2002.Dynamic Instabilities Induced by Asymmetric Influence:Prisoners’Dilemma Game in Small-world Networks[J].Physical Review E Statistical Nonlinear&Soft Matter Physics,(66):021907.
Smith,J.M.,1982.Evolution and the Theory of Games[M].Cambridge University Press.
Smith,J.M.,and Price,G.R.,1973.The Logic of Animal Conflict[J].Nature,(46):15-18.
Yang,Z.,Tao,Z.,and Ming,H.P.,2012.Instability in Evolutionary Games[J].PloS One,(7):e49663.
(1)详见《2014年政府工作报告》有关大数据发展的相关内容。
(1)本文采用的中科院NLPIR汉语分词系统(http://ictclas.nlpir.org/),是当前中文分词性能最好的系统,分词精度可达98 .45%。
罗鹏、陈义国、许传华,2018.百度搜索、风险感知与金融风险预测---基于行为金融学的视角[J].金融论坛,(1):39-51.
孟雪井、孟祥兰、胡杨洋,2016.基于文本挖掘和百度指数的投资者情绪指数研究[J].宏观经济研究,(1):144-153.
王书斌、谭中明、陈艺云,2017.P2P网贷债权市场中违约舆情的传染机制[J].金融论坛,(11):56-69.
吴江、张辉,2013.机构投资者羊群行为的演化博弈分析[J].系统管理学报,(22):466-471.
曾建光,2015.网络安全风险感知与互联网金融的资产定价[J].经济研究,(7):131-145.
Kim,B.J.,Trusina,A.,and Holme,P.,2002.Dynamic Instabilities Induced by Asymmetric Influence:Prisoners’Dilemma Game in Small-world Networks[J].Physical Review E Statistical Nonlinear&Soft Matter Physics,(66):021907.
Smith,J.M.,1982.Evolution and the Theory of Games[M].Cambridge University Press.
Smith,J.M.,and Price,G.R.,1973.The Logic of Animal Conflict[J].Nature,(46):15-18.
Yang,Z.,Tao,Z.,and Ming,H.P.,2012.Instability in Evolutionary Games[J].PloS One,(7):e49663.
(1)详见《2014年政府工作报告》有关大数据发展的相关内容。
(1)本文采用的中科院NLPIR汉语分词系统(http://ictclas.nlpir.org/),是当前中文分词性能最好的系统,分词精度可达98 .45%。