从预报角度探讨乌鞘岭山区大气温差成因
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摘要
利用2009年7月—2015年12月河西走廊东部乌鞘岭和天祝逐时气温、日照、地面2 min风场及每隔6 h云量资料,详细分析乌鞘岭山区大气温差、云量特征的时间变化及其预报关系,旨在提高天祝最低气温的预报准确率。结果表明:冬季08时气温乌鞘岭高于天祝的频率超过50%,温差强度达4~6℃;春夏季5—9月气温乌鞘岭高于天祝的频率低于40%,温差强度较弱在2℃以下。云量中夜间至清晨(02—8时)少,傍晚较多;5—9月较多,冬季较少。天空状况除冬季晴天多,出现频率高于50%外,其它季节阴天较多,晴天次之,多云较少,不足20%。乌鞘岭谷风多,而天祝山风多。气温乌鞘岭高于天祝的频率和强度与云量、山谷风、太阳照射时间、季节和天气系统密切相关。晴天和阴雨天气报准,天祝最低气温预报准确率最多可能提高30%,晴天报准时预报准确率最多可提高10%以上。
Using data of hourly temperature,sunlight and every 2 minutes surface wind,every 6hours' cloud cover of Tianzhu and Wushaoling from July 2009 to December 2015 in eastern Hexi Corridor,temporal variations of atmosphere temperature difference,cloud cover characteristics and their forecast relations were analyzed in detail over Wushaoling Mountain to improve minimum temperature forecast accuracy in Tianzhu.The result showed that the percentage of temperature of Wushaoling is higher than that of Tianzhu over 50%at morning 8:00 in winter,and the temperature difference is about 4-6 ℃ The percentage that Wushaoling temperature is higger than Tianzhuis less than 40%in spring and summer,and the temperature difference is less than 2 ℃.For cloud cover,it was less from night to morning but more at dusk,and more from May to September but less in winter.For sky conditions,clear days were the most in winter,whose frequencies were higher than 50%.while cloudy days were more than clear days in other seasons,partly cloudy days were the lest,below 20%in other seasons.Valley breeze is more in Wushaoling,but mountain breeze is more in Tianzhu.Temperature frequencies and intensities of Wushaoling are bigger than that of Tianzhu,it were closely related to cloud cover,mountainous terrain mountain and valley breezes,and solar irradiation time,season and weather system.If the minimum temperatures of sunny and rainy weather would be forecasted accurately,minimum temperature forecast accuracy may be improved by 30%,sunny time forecast accuracy may be improved by more than 10%.
Using data of hourly temperature,sunlight and every 2 minutes surface wind,every 6hours' cloud cover of Tianzhu and Wushaoling from July 2009 to December 2015 in eastern Hexi Corridor,temporal variations of atmosphere temperature difference,cloud cover characteristics and their forecast relations were analyzed in detail over Wushaoling Mountain to improve minimum temperature forecast accuracy in Tianzhu.The result showed that the percentage of temperature of Wushaoling is higher than that of Tianzhu over 50%at morning 8:00 in winter,and the temperature difference is about 4-6 ℃ The percentage that Wushaoling temperature is higger than Tianzhuis less than 40%in spring and summer,and the temperature difference is less than 2 ℃.For cloud cover,it was less from night to morning but more at dusk,and more from May to September but less in winter.For sky conditions,clear days were the most in winter,whose frequencies were higher than 50%.while cloudy days were more than clear days in other seasons,partly cloudy days were the lest,below 20%in other seasons.Valley breeze is more in Wushaoling,but mountain breeze is more in Tianzhu.Temperature frequencies and intensities of Wushaoling are bigger than that of Tianzhu,it were closely related to cloud cover,mountainous terrain mountain and valley breezes,and solar irradiation time,season and weather system.If the minimum temperatures of sunny and rainy weather would be forecasted accurately,minimum temperature forecast accuracy may be improved by 30%,sunny time forecast accuracy may be improved by more than 10%.
引文
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[5]杨胜朋.吕世华,陈玉春,等.绿化对冬季山谷城市边界层结构影响的数值模拟研究[J].中国沙漠,2010,30(3):691-698.
[6]张强.地形和逆温层对兰州市污染物输送的影响[J].中国环境科学.2001,21(3):230-234.
[7]王颖,张镭,胡菊,等.WRF模式对山谷城市边界层模拟能力的检验及地面气象特征分析[J].高原气象.2010,29(6):1397-1407.
[8]王晓明,云天,张智勇.等.吉林省冬季逆温天气特征分析[J].气象,2009,35(8):91-97.
[9]杨明,李维亮,刘煜,等.近50年我国西部地区气象要素的变化特征[J].应用气象学报.2010,21(2):198-205.
[10]周明煜,朱翠娟.李诗明.一次冷锋过境后的边界层结构[J].气象学报,1980.38(3):250-259.
[11]朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文.天气学原理和方法[M].气象出版社,1981.
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[13]郑国光,陈跃,陈添宇,等.祁连山夏季地形云综合探测试验[J].地球科学进展,2011,26(10):1057-1070.
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