基于Copula函数我国林业经济发展与气候之间的关系研究
|
摘要
我国林业经济在国民经济发展中有着重要的地位,森林与气候之间也有着密切的关系。通过历史数据基于Copula函数模型验证林业经济发展与气温、降水量、湿度与日照数等气候因素之间的相关关系,林业生产总值与气温正相关,与湿度、日照数负相关。当我们认识到林业经济总产值与气温、降水量、湿度、日照数之间的相依关系和相依结构,就可以采取相应的措施。这将会对制定宏观经济发展规划与森林资源开发战略,具有一定的指导与实践意义。
Forestry economy of China plays an important role in national economic development.Forest and cli mate have close relationship as well.Through the historical data and Copula function verify the relationship be tween forestry economic development and climate factors such as the temperature,precipitation,moisture and sunshine.Forestry total output value has positive correlation with temperature,however,has negative correlation with moisture and sunshine.When realize this dependence relation and dependence structure among forestry to tal output and temperature,precipitation,moisture and sunshine,should take corresponding measures.It will have guidance and practical meaning for macro economic development planning and forest resources develop ment strategy.
Forestry economy of China plays an important role in national economic development.Forest and cli mate have close relationship as well.Through the historical data and Copula function verify the relationship be tween forestry economic development and climate factors such as the temperature,precipitation,moisture and sunshine.Forestry total output value has positive correlation with temperature,however,has negative correlation with moisture and sunshine.When realize this dependence relation and dependence structure among forestry to tal output and temperature,precipitation,moisture and sunshine,should take corresponding measures.It will have guidance and practical meaning for macro economic development planning and forest resources develop ment strategy.
引文
高均凯.我国林业应对气候变化问题的基本定位及政策建议[J].吉林林业科技,2005,34(3):1～5
贾治邦.发展林业——应对气候变化的战略选择[J].求是,2010(7):21～22
李怒云,黄东,张晓静等.林业减缓气候变化的国际进程、政策机制及对策研究[J].林业经济,2010(3):22～25
刘曙红.气象因子对林业生产的影响及防御[J].中国林业,2011(6下):38～38
刘周全,吴焕忠,黎荣彬.广东林业在应对气候变化中的贡献与潜力分析[J].防护林科技,2011(1):60～63
皮军.气候变化对东南亚经济的影响[J].南洋问题研究,2010(2):41～48
蒲晶岩.湟源县气候及其变化与林业生态建设的分析[J].青海气象,2002,3(4):61～64
姚晓红,许彦平.气候变化对天水市林区森林资源的影响[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(30):16969～16971,17030
曾华锋.《京都议定书》交易机制与生态碳核算系统的构建[J].财会通讯,2009(1):72～74
张家诚.气候与气候学[M].北京:气象出版社,2011周化成.浅议林业与气候[J].中国林业,2010(8B):56～56
Christopher S.Galik,Robert B.Jackson.Risks to forest carbon offset projects in a changing climate[J].Forest Ecology and Management,2009,257(11):2209～2216
Nelsen,R.An introduction to copula[M].New York:Springer,1999.
Ogden,A.E.,and J.L.Innes.Climate change adaptation and regional for est planning in southern Yukon,Canada[J].Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,2008,13(8):833～861
Ronald Raunikar.,Joseph Buongiorno James A.,Turner,Shushuai Zhu.Global outlook for wood and forests with the bioenergy demand implied by scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[J].For est Policy and Economics,2010,12(1):48～56
贾治邦.发展林业——应对气候变化的战略选择[J].求是,2010(7):21～22
李怒云,黄东,张晓静等.林业减缓气候变化的国际进程、政策机制及对策研究[J].林业经济,2010(3):22～25
刘曙红.气象因子对林业生产的影响及防御[J].中国林业,2011(6下):38～38
刘周全,吴焕忠,黎荣彬.广东林业在应对气候变化中的贡献与潜力分析[J].防护林科技,2011(1):60～63
皮军.气候变化对东南亚经济的影响[J].南洋问题研究,2010(2):41～48
蒲晶岩.湟源县气候及其变化与林业生态建设的分析[J].青海气象,2002,3(4):61～64
姚晓红,许彦平.气候变化对天水市林区森林资源的影响[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(30):16969～16971,17030
曾华锋.《京都议定书》交易机制与生态碳核算系统的构建[J].财会通讯,2009(1):72～74
张家诚.气候与气候学[M].北京:气象出版社,2011周化成.浅议林业与气候[J].中国林业,2010(8B):56～56
Christopher S.Galik,Robert B.Jackson.Risks to forest carbon offset projects in a changing climate[J].Forest Ecology and Management,2009,257(11):2209～2216
Nelsen,R.An introduction to copula[M].New York:Springer,1999.
Ogden,A.E.,and J.L.Innes.Climate change adaptation and regional for est planning in southern Yukon,Canada[J].Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,2008,13(8):833～861
Ronald Raunikar.,Joseph Buongiorno James A.,Turner,Shushuai Zhu.Global outlook for wood and forests with the bioenergy demand implied by scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[J].For est Policy and Economics,2010,12(1):48～56