郭家河煤矿回采工作面瓦斯涌出量预测
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摘要
矿井瓦斯涌出量的准确预测,可为煤矿安全生产提供有力保障。文中以郭家河煤矿为例,通过探讨瓦斯涌出量与影响因素之间的关系,采用多元回归分析法,结合回采工作面瓦斯涌出量的实测数据和相关参数,利用"统计产品与服务解决方案软件"(简称SPSS)对影响瓦斯涌出量的因素进行多元逐步回归分析,在解决各影响因素间多重共线性问题后,建立了瓦斯涌出量预测模型。将瓦斯涌出量实测值分别与多元逐步回归法和多元线性回归法所得的预测值进行比对分析,结果表明多元逐步回归法预测结果精度更高,更适合于回采工作面瓦斯涌出量预测。
In order to guarantee safety of coal mine production,it is necessary to predict the gas emission quantity. Taking Guojiahe coal mine for example,this paper based on discussion of the relationship between gas emission quantity and influencing factors. Combined with measured data of the gas and relative parameters,it has established a multivariate regression equation using the method of multiple stepwise regression analysis which overcome collinearity problem by means of the statistical products and service solutions( SPSS) software. Comparing measured values to experimental values in multiple stepwise regression model and multiple linear regression model respectively,results show that multiple stepwise regression model is more accurate and practical to gas emission forecast.
In order to guarantee safety of coal mine production,it is necessary to predict the gas emission quantity. Taking Guojiahe coal mine for example,this paper based on discussion of the relationship between gas emission quantity and influencing factors. Combined with measured data of the gas and relative parameters,it has established a multivariate regression equation using the method of multiple stepwise regression analysis which overcome collinearity problem by means of the statistical products and service solutions( SPSS) software. Comparing measured values to experimental values in multiple stepwise regression model and multiple linear regression model respectively,results show that multiple stepwise regression model is more accurate and practical to gas emission forecast.
引文
[1]皮子坤,贾宝山,李宗翔.基于SPSS的采煤工作面瓦斯涌出量预测模型研究[J].计算机工程与应用,2016,52(15):228-232.PI Zi-kun,JIA Bao-shan,LI Zong-xiang.Forecast of the gas emission quantity of the working face based on the SPSS[J].Computer Engineering and Applications,2016,52(15):228-232.
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[7]王生全,刘柏根,张召召,等.遗传算法的BP网络模型进行瓦斯涌出量预测[J].西安科技大学学报,2012,32(1):51-56.WANG Sheng-quan,LIU Bo-gen,ZHANG Zhao-zhao,et al.Prediction of gas emission quantity of mining faces based on genetic BP neutral network optimal model[J].Journal of Xi’an University of Science and Technology,2012,32(1):51-56.
[8]潘玉民,邓永红,张全柱,等.基于QPSO-RBF的瓦斯涌出量预测模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(12):29-34.PAN Yu-min,DENG Yong-hong,ZHANG Quan-zhu,et al.Gas emission prediction model based on QPSO-RBF[J].China Safety Science Journal,2012,22(12):29-34.
[9]付华,谢森,徐耀松,等.基于ACC-ENN算法的煤矿瓦斯涌出量动态预测模型研究[J].煤炭学报,2014,39(7):1 296-1 301.FU Hua,XIE Sen,XU Yao-song,et al.Gas emission dynamic prediction model of coal mine based on ACCENN algorithm[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2014,39(7):1 296-1 301.
[10]孙林,杨世元.基于LS-SVM的回采工作面瓦斯涌出量预测[J].煤炭学报,2008,33(12):1 377-1 380.SUN Lin,YANG Shi-yuan.Prediction for gas emission quantity of the working face based on LS-SVM[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2008,33(12):1 377-1 380.
[11]樊保龙,白春华,李建平.基于LMD-SVM的采煤工作面瓦斯涌出量预测[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2013,30(6):946-952.FAN Bao-long,BAI Chun-hua,LI Jian-ping.Forecasting model of coal face gas emission based on LMD-SVM method[J].Journal of Mining&Safety Engineering,2013,30(6):946-952.
[12]施式亮,李润求,罗文柯.基于EMD-PSO-SVM的煤矿瓦斯涌出量预测方法几应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2014,24(7):43-48.SHI Shi-liang,LI Run-qiu,LUO Wen-ke.Method for predicting coal mine gas emission based on EMD-PSOSVM and its application[J].China Safety Science Journal,2014,24(7):43-48.
[13]吕伏,梁冰,孙维吉,等.基于主成分回归分析法的回采工作面瓦斯涌出量预测[J].煤炭学报,2012,37(1):113-116.LV Fu,LIANG Bing,SUN Wei-ji,et al.Gas emission quantity prediction of working face based on principal component regression analysis method.[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2012,37(1):113-116.
[14]郭德勇,郑茂杰,鞠传磊,等.采煤工作面瓦斯涌出量预测逐步回归方法[J].北京科技大学学报,2009,31(9):1 095-1 099.GUO De-yong,ZHENG Mao-jie,JU Chuan-lei,et al.Stepwise regression method for predicting gas emission from coal faces[J].Journal of University of Science and Technology Beijing,2009,31(9):1 095-1 099.
[15]毕建武,贾进章,刘丹.基于SPSS多元回归分析的回采工作面瓦斯涌出量预测[J].安全与环境学报,2013,13(5):183-186.BI Jian-wu,JIA Jin-zhang,LIU Dan.Forecast of the gas emission quantity of the working face based on the SPSS multiple regression analysis[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2013,13(5):183-186.
[16]毕建武,贾进章.基于SPSS的PCA-MRA回采工作面瓦斯涌出量预测[J].安全与环境学报,2014,14(5):54-57.BI Jian-wu,JIA Jin-zhang.Prediction of gas emission quantity in the working face based on SPSS PCA-MRA[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2014,14(5):54-57.
[17]卢国斌,康晋凯,白刚,等.PCA-BP在回采工作面瓦斯涌出量预测中的应用[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报:自然科学版,2015,34(12):1 329-1 334.LU Guo-bin,KANG Jin-kai,BAI Gang,et al.Application of PCA-BP to gas emission prediction of mining working face[J].Journal of Liaoning Technical University:Natural Science,2015,34(12):1 329-1 334.
[18]王生全,冯海,范琪.陈家山煤矿采面瓦斯涌出量影响因素及建模预测[J].中国煤炭地质,2011,23(7):28-32.WANG Sheng-quan,FENG Hai,FAN Qi.Coal face gas emission rate influencing factors and modeling prediction in Chenjiashan coalmine[J].Coal Geology of China,2011,23(7):28-32.
[2]伍爱友,田云丽,宋议,等.灰色系统理论在矿井瓦斯涌出量预测中的应用[J].煤炭学报,2005,30(5):589-592.WU Ai-you,TIAN Yun-li,SONG Yi,et al.Application of the grey system theory for predicting the amount of mine gas emission in coal mine[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2005,30(5):589-592.
[3]王春晓,陈开岩,赵红梅.基于灰色模型的瓦斯涌出量预测[J].煤炭技术,2012,31(2):95-97.WANG Chun-xiao,CHEN Kai-yan,ZHAO Hong-mei.Amount of gas emission prediction based on grey model[J].Coal Technology,2012,31(2):95-97.
[4]吕贵春,马云东.矿井瓦斯涌出量预测的灰色建模法[J].中国安全科学学报,2004,14(10):22-24.LV Gui-chun,MA Yun-dong.Grey method for predicting gas outburst in mine[J].China Safety Science Journal,2004,14(10):22-24.
[5]肖鹏,李树刚,张进.MGM(1,N)模型用于瓦斯涌出量预测[J].西安科技大学学报,2008,28(2):301-304.XIAO Peng,LI Shu-gang,ZHANG Jin.Forecasting of gas emissions based on MGM(1,N)model[J].Journal of Xi’an University of Science and Technology,2008,28(2):301-304.
[6]朱红青,常文杰,张彬.回采工作面瓦斯涌出BP神经网络分源预测模型及应用[J].煤炭学报,2007,32(5):504-508.ZHU Hong-qing,CHANG Wen-jie,ZHANG Bin.Differentsource gas emission prediction model of working face based on BP artificial neural network and its application[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2007,32(5):504-508.
[7]王生全,刘柏根,张召召,等.遗传算法的BP网络模型进行瓦斯涌出量预测[J].西安科技大学学报,2012,32(1):51-56.WANG Sheng-quan,LIU Bo-gen,ZHANG Zhao-zhao,et al.Prediction of gas emission quantity of mining faces based on genetic BP neutral network optimal model[J].Journal of Xi’an University of Science and Technology,2012,32(1):51-56.
[8]潘玉民,邓永红,张全柱,等.基于QPSO-RBF的瓦斯涌出量预测模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(12):29-34.PAN Yu-min,DENG Yong-hong,ZHANG Quan-zhu,et al.Gas emission prediction model based on QPSO-RBF[J].China Safety Science Journal,2012,22(12):29-34.
[9]付华,谢森,徐耀松,等.基于ACC-ENN算法的煤矿瓦斯涌出量动态预测模型研究[J].煤炭学报,2014,39(7):1 296-1 301.FU Hua,XIE Sen,XU Yao-song,et al.Gas emission dynamic prediction model of coal mine based on ACCENN algorithm[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2014,39(7):1 296-1 301.
[10]孙林,杨世元.基于LS-SVM的回采工作面瓦斯涌出量预测[J].煤炭学报,2008,33(12):1 377-1 380.SUN Lin,YANG Shi-yuan.Prediction for gas emission quantity of the working face based on LS-SVM[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2008,33(12):1 377-1 380.
[11]樊保龙,白春华,李建平.基于LMD-SVM的采煤工作面瓦斯涌出量预测[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2013,30(6):946-952.FAN Bao-long,BAI Chun-hua,LI Jian-ping.Forecasting model of coal face gas emission based on LMD-SVM method[J].Journal of Mining&Safety Engineering,2013,30(6):946-952.
[12]施式亮,李润求,罗文柯.基于EMD-PSO-SVM的煤矿瓦斯涌出量预测方法几应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2014,24(7):43-48.SHI Shi-liang,LI Run-qiu,LUO Wen-ke.Method for predicting coal mine gas emission based on EMD-PSOSVM and its application[J].China Safety Science Journal,2014,24(7):43-48.
[13]吕伏,梁冰,孙维吉,等.基于主成分回归分析法的回采工作面瓦斯涌出量预测[J].煤炭学报,2012,37(1):113-116.LV Fu,LIANG Bing,SUN Wei-ji,et al.Gas emission quantity prediction of working face based on principal component regression analysis method.[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2012,37(1):113-116.
[14]郭德勇,郑茂杰,鞠传磊,等.采煤工作面瓦斯涌出量预测逐步回归方法[J].北京科技大学学报,2009,31(9):1 095-1 099.GUO De-yong,ZHENG Mao-jie,JU Chuan-lei,et al.Stepwise regression method for predicting gas emission from coal faces[J].Journal of University of Science and Technology Beijing,2009,31(9):1 095-1 099.
[15]毕建武,贾进章,刘丹.基于SPSS多元回归分析的回采工作面瓦斯涌出量预测[J].安全与环境学报,2013,13(5):183-186.BI Jian-wu,JIA Jin-zhang,LIU Dan.Forecast of the gas emission quantity of the working face based on the SPSS multiple regression analysis[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2013,13(5):183-186.
[16]毕建武,贾进章.基于SPSS的PCA-MRA回采工作面瓦斯涌出量预测[J].安全与环境学报,2014,14(5):54-57.BI Jian-wu,JIA Jin-zhang.Prediction of gas emission quantity in the working face based on SPSS PCA-MRA[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2014,14(5):54-57.
[17]卢国斌,康晋凯,白刚,等.PCA-BP在回采工作面瓦斯涌出量预测中的应用[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报:自然科学版,2015,34(12):1 329-1 334.LU Guo-bin,KANG Jin-kai,BAI Gang,et al.Application of PCA-BP to gas emission prediction of mining working face[J].Journal of Liaoning Technical University:Natural Science,2015,34(12):1 329-1 334.
[18]王生全,冯海,范琪.陈家山煤矿采面瓦斯涌出量影响因素及建模预测[J].中国煤炭地质,2011,23(7):28-32.WANG Sheng-quan,FENG Hai,FAN Qi.Coal face gas emission rate influencing factors and modeling prediction in Chenjiashan coalmine[J].Coal Geology of China,2011,23(7):28-32.