春玉米生育中期阶段主要农事活动气象适宜度评价模型
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摘要
农事活动天气预报是农用天气预报的核心内容,是指导农业安全生产的重要理论依据之一。本研究重点对春玉米生育中期阶段中耕和药(肥)喷施农事活动的气象适宜度评价模型进行了深入探讨。结果表明:土壤水分、降雨量、温度是影响春玉米中耕农事活动的主要因素;风力、降雨量、温度和土壤水分是影响药(肥)喷施农事活动的主要因素;并确定各因子的适宜指标,利用分段线性函数建立各因子的气象适宜度函数,利用层次分析法确定各因子权重系数,进而获得了中耕和药(肥)喷施的综合气象适宜度评价模型,其气象适宜度评价结果与实际情况基本相符;根据短期的气象因子预报值,可以开展春玉米中耕和药(肥)喷施的气象适宜度等级评价预报指导服务。
Weather forecast of farming activities is the core part of agricultural weather forecast, and one of the theoretical bases for guiding agricultural production safety. We discussed the evaluation model of meteorological suitability of intertill and chemical agents(fertilizer) spraying during the middle growth stage of spring maize. The results showed that: intertill was affected by soil moisture, precipitation and temperature,while chemical agents(fertilizer) spraying was affected by wind, precipitation, temperature and soil moisture.We used segmented linear functions to build meteorological suitability function of every factor under the premise of weight coefficient by AHP, then established a model of meteorological suitability on intertill and chemical agents(fertilizer) spraying. The results of evaluation were basically in line with the actual situation.According to the forecast value of short-term meteorological factors, weather forecast could be carried out for agricultural activities, such as intertill, chemical agents(fertilizer) spraying, in the middle growth stage of spring maize.
Weather forecast of farming activities is the core part of agricultural weather forecast, and one of the theoretical bases for guiding agricultural production safety. We discussed the evaluation model of meteorological suitability of intertill and chemical agents(fertilizer) spraying during the middle growth stage of spring maize. The results showed that: intertill was affected by soil moisture, precipitation and temperature,while chemical agents(fertilizer) spraying was affected by wind, precipitation, temperature and soil moisture.We used segmented linear functions to build meteorological suitability function of every factor under the premise of weight coefficient by AHP, then established a model of meteorological suitability on intertill and chemical agents(fertilizer) spraying. The results of evaluation were basically in line with the actual situation.According to the forecast value of short-term meteorological factors, weather forecast could be carried out for agricultural activities, such as intertill, chemical agents(fertilizer) spraying, in the middle growth stage of spring maize.
引文
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[19]李德,杨霏云,孙义,等.基于云模型的淮北平原麦田喷药(肥)气象适宜度评价[J].生态学杂志,2016,35(1):259-268.
[20]班晋,王波,赵佳莹,等.基于DERF2.0对黑龙江省初夏降水的客观预测[J].中国农学通报,2018,34(9):81-89.
[2]戴凌燕,刘玉涛,王宇先,等.黑龙江春玉米种植区高产品种籽粒灌浆、脱水特性及产量分析[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(6):75-79.
[3]矫江,王连敏,王立志,等.黑龙江省玉米霉变粒发生原因与防御对策[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(30):228-233.
[4]朱海霞,李秀芬,陈健,等.基于作物种植角度的黑龙江省热量资源时空格局[J].中国农学通报,2018,34(15):107-113.
[5]丛克强,矫江,中本和夫,等.黑龙江省玉米种植效益调查[J].黑龙江农业科学,2011,34(10):25-28.
[6]王占哲,王刚,房道进.黑龙江寒区农业集约化高效种植模式研究[J].中国农学通报,2000,17(5):55-57.
[7]王萍,李帅,杨晓强,等.黑龙江省农用天气预报技术及应用研究进展[J].气象与环境学报,2013,29(1):89-92.
[8]刘锦銮,何键,陈新光.广东省农用天气预报技术研究[J].气象,2006,57(2):116-120.
[9]屈振江,刘新生,王景红,等.陕西省林果业农用天气预报业务系统研究[J].气象,2012:38(10):1301-1305.
[10]王治海,金志凤,杨栋,等.基于Arc Engine的茶叶生产气象服务业务系统的设计与实现[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(21):185-193.
[11]余卫东,张广周,张弘.河南省农用天气预报业务系统的设计与应用[J].气象与环境科学,2011,34(03):79-82.
[12]姜丽霞,杨晓强,王晾晾,等.基于大宗粮食作物的黑龙江省农用天气预报研究进展[J].安徽农业科学,2012,40(20):10538-10539,10553.
[13]马树庆.现代农用天气预报业务及其有关问题的探讨[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(2):278-282,288.
[14]马树庆,陈剑,王琪,等.东北地区玉米整地、播种和收获气象适宜度评价模型[J].气象,2013,39(6):782-788.
[15]闫敏慧,姚秀萍,王蕾,等.用层次分析法确定气象服务评价指标权重[J].应用气象学报,2014.25(4):470-473.
[16]洪志国,李炎,范植华,等.层次分析法中高阶平均随机一致性指标(RI)的计算[J].计算机工程与应用,2002,39(12):45-47.
[17]高尚.三种层次分析法中权值的计算方法[J].科学技术与工程,2007,7(20):5204-5207.
[18]毛留喜,吕厚荃.国家级农业气象业务技术综述[J].气象,2010,36(7):75-80.
[19]李德,杨霏云,孙义,等.基于云模型的淮北平原麦田喷药(肥)气象适宜度评价[J].生态学杂志,2016,35(1):259-268.
[20]班晋,王波,赵佳莹,等.基于DERF2.0对黑龙江省初夏降水的客观预测[J].中国农学通报,2018,34(9):81-89.