京津冀居民膳食虚拟水消费差异及影响因素分析
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摘要
虚拟水消费变化对水资源需求有很大影响,分析居民膳食虚拟水消费及其差异性对于构建健康的消费模式有重要意义。核算并分析2000-2015年京津冀居民膳食虚拟水的消费情况,并对造成虚拟水消费差异的影响因素进行分析。结果表明:北京、天津、河北年均居民膳食虚拟水消费为98.33亿m3、57.44亿m3和240.02亿m3,虚拟水消费量呈明显的上升趋势,给区域水资源安全保障带来更大压力;人均居民膳食虚拟水消费区域差异明显,整体表现为城镇高于农村,北京市高于天津市高于河北省。居民膳食虚拟水消费多样性指数整体呈现上升趋势,城乡差异显著,城镇居民高于农村居民,但城乡差距逐渐缩小;肉类、食用油等单位质量虚拟水含量高的产品消费量不同是造成人均膳食虚拟水消费差异的重要原因,而且粮食生产力提高对于减少居民人均膳食虚拟水消费也有重要作用。根据研究结果,建议通过提高产品水产用水效率、构建合理的消费结构、引导健康的饮食消费习惯等对膳食虚拟水消费需求进行调控。
The characteristics of virtual water consumption have great impacts on water resources demand,therefore,it is of significance to investigate virtual water consumption and its differences of resident diet to build a healthy consumption model.This paper analyzed the residents′dietary virtual water consumption in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2015,and explored their influencing factors.Results showed that a)The average annual dietary virtual water consumption during 2000-2015 was9.833 billion m3,5.744 billion m3 and 24.002 billion m3 in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,respectively.The virtual water consumption also showed an obvious increasing trend,which could bring critical pressure to the regional water resources security;b)The residents′dietary virtual water consumption per capita was higher in Beijing than those of Tianjin and Hebei,and was higher in urban than that of rural areas;c)The consumption diversity index of residents′dietary virtual water consumption also showed an upward trend,and it was higher in urban than that of rural areas as well.However,the gap was becoming narrowing gradually with time;d)The difference from consumption of high virtual water,such as meat and edible oil,was the main reasons for virtual water consumption.The improvement of grain productivity plays an important role in reducing the virtual water consumption per capita.The regulations of virtual water remand can be used to improve the efficiency of water consumption,construct a more reasonable consumption structure,and guide healthy consumption habits.
The characteristics of virtual water consumption have great impacts on water resources demand,therefore,it is of significance to investigate virtual water consumption and its differences of resident diet to build a healthy consumption model.This paper analyzed the residents′dietary virtual water consumption in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2015,and explored their influencing factors.Results showed that a)The average annual dietary virtual water consumption during 2000-2015 was9.833 billion m3,5.744 billion m3 and 24.002 billion m3 in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,respectively.The virtual water consumption also showed an obvious increasing trend,which could bring critical pressure to the regional water resources security;b)The residents′dietary virtual water consumption per capita was higher in Beijing than those of Tianjin and Hebei,and was higher in urban than that of rural areas;c)The consumption diversity index of residents′dietary virtual water consumption also showed an upward trend,and it was higher in urban than that of rural areas as well.However,the gap was becoming narrowing gradually with time;d)The difference from consumption of high virtual water,such as meat and edible oil,was the main reasons for virtual water consumption.The improvement of grain productivity plays an important role in reducing the virtual water consumption per capita.The regulations of virtual water remand can be used to improve the efficiency of water consumption,construct a more reasonable consumption structure,and guide healthy consumption habits.
引文
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[11]赵勇,翟家齐.京津冀水资源安全保障技术研发集成与示范应用[J].中国环境管理,2017,9(4):113-114.(ZHAO Y,ZHAI J Q.Water resources security technology R&D integration and demonstration application in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei[J].Environmental Conformity Assessment,2017,9(4):113-114.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16868/j.cnki.1674-6252.2017.04.113.
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[14] DLL P,SIEBERT S.Global modeling of irrigation water requirements[J].Water Resources Research,2002,38(4):8-1-8-10.
[15] SUN S,WU P,WANG Y,et al.2013.The impacts of interannual climate variability and agricultural inputs on water footprint of crop production in an irrigation district of China[J].Science of the Total Environment,444(2):498.DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.12.016
[16]曹建廷,李原园,张文胜,等.农畜产品虚拟水研究的背景、方法及意义[J].水科学进展,2004,15(6):829-834.(CAO J T,LI Y Y,ZHANG W S,et al.Research background,methodological issues and significance on virtual water of crop and livestock production[J].Advances in Water Science,2004,15(6):829-834.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1001-6791.2004.06.025.
[17] MEKONNEN M M,HOEKSTRA A Y.A global assessment of the water footprint of farm animal products[J].Ecosystems,2012,15(3):401-415.DOI:10.1007/s10021-011-9517-8.
[18] CASTILLO R M,FENG K,HUBACEK K,et al.Uncovering the green,blue,and grey water footprint and virtual water of biofuel production in Brazil:A Nexus Perspective[J].Sustainability,2017,9(11):2049.DOI:10.3390/su9112049.
[19] XU Z,CHENG G,CHEN D,et al.Economic diversity,development capacity and sustainable development of China[J].Ecological Economics,2002,40(3):369-378.DOI:10.1016/S0921-8009(02)00005-8.
[20]蔡甲冰,刘钰,许迪,等.基于通径分析原理的冬小麦缺水诊断指标敏感性分析[J].水利学报,2008,39(1):83-90.(CAI J B,LIU Y,XU D,et al.Sensitivity analysis on water deficit indicator of winter wheat based on path analysis theory[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2008,39(1):83-90.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:0559-9350.2008.01.014.
[21]孙世坤,王玉宝,吴普特,等.小麦生产水足迹区域差异及归因分析[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(13):142-148.(SUN S K,WANG Y B,WU P T,et al.Spatial variability and attribution analysis of water footprint of wheat in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2015,31(13):142-148.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.13.020.
[22]杨青,朱瑞祥,张捷,等.陕西省农业机械化对农业生产贡献率的研究[J].农业工程学报,2000,16(6):64-67.(YANG Q,ZHU X R,ZHANG J,et al.Mechanization profit portion estimation in plant products industry in Shaanxi province[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2000,16(6):64-67.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1002-6819.2000.06.016.
[2]龙爱华,张志强,徐中民,等.甘肃省水资源足迹与消费模式分析[J].水科学进展,2005(3):418-425.(Long A H,ZHANG Z Q,XU X M,SU Z Y.Analysis of water footprint and consumption pattern in Gansu Province[J].Advances in Water Science,2005(3):418-425.(in Chinese))
[3] ALLAN J A.Overall perspectives on countries and regions.In Rogers,P.and Lydon,P.edits.Water in the Arab world:Perspectives and Prognoses[M].Massachusetts:Harvard University Press,1994:65-100.
[4]王玉宝,吴普特,孙世坤,等.我国粮食虚拟水流动对水资源和区域经济的影响[J].农业机械学报,2015,46(10):208-215.(WANG Y B,WU P T,SUN S K,et al.Impact of virtual water flows of grain on water resources and regional economy in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2015,46(10):208-215.(in Chinese))DOI:10.6041/j.issn.1000-1298.2015.10.027
[5]田贵良,王希为.农产品贸易驱动下中国与湄公河沿岸国家的虚拟水流动关系研究[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2018,39(2):16-23.(TIAN G L,WANG X W.Study on the virtual water trade pattern of China and the Mekong countries under the driving of agricultural trade[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power(Natural Science Edition),2018,39(2):16-23.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-5634.2018.02.003.
[6] LIU J,SAVENIJE H H G.Food consumption patterns and their effect on water requirement in China[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2008,5(1):27-50.DOI:10.5194/hess-12-887-2008.
[7]HOEKSTRA A Y,MEKONNEN M M.The water footprint of humanity[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of the Sciences of the United States of America(PNAS).2012,109(9):3232-3237.
[8]尚海洋,徐中民,王思远.不同消费模式下虚拟水消费比较[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2009,19(4):50-54.(SHANG H Y,XU Z M,WANG S Y.The comparison of virtual water consumption among various consumption patterns[J].China Population Resources and Environment,2009,19(4):50-54.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2009.04.010.
[9]孙才志,刘淑彬.中国膳食水足迹区域差异及驱动因素分析[J].人民黄河,2017,39(9):39-45,50.(SUN C Z,LIU S B.Impacts of driving factors and the regional difference of dietary water footprint in China[J].Yellow River,2017,39(9):39-45,50.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2017.09.009.
[10]封志明,刘登伟.京津冀地区水资源供需平衡及其水资源承载力[J].自然资源学报,2006,21(5):689-699.(FENG Z M,LIU D W.A study on water resources carrying capacity in Jingjinji region[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2006,21(5):689-699.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1000-3037.2006.05.002.
[11]赵勇,翟家齐.京津冀水资源安全保障技术研发集成与示范应用[J].中国环境管理,2017,9(4):113-114.(ZHAO Y,ZHAI J Q.Water resources security technology R&D integration and demonstration application in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei[J].Environmental Conformity Assessment,2017,9(4):113-114.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16868/j.cnki.1674-6252.2017.04.113.
[12] NOVO P,GARRIDO A,VARELAORTEGA C.Are virtual water"flows"in Spanish grain trade consistent with relative water scarcity?[J].Ecological Economics,2009,68(5):1454-1464.DOI:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.10.013
[13]吴普特,孙世坤,王玉宝,等.作物生产水足迹量化方法与评价研究[J].水利学报,2017,48(6):651-660,669.(WU P T,SUN S K,WANG B Y,et al.Research on the quantification methods for water footprint of crop production[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2017,48(6):651-660,669.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20160740.
[14] DLL P,SIEBERT S.Global modeling of irrigation water requirements[J].Water Resources Research,2002,38(4):8-1-8-10.
[15] SUN S,WU P,WANG Y,et al.2013.The impacts of interannual climate variability and agricultural inputs on water footprint of crop production in an irrigation district of China[J].Science of the Total Environment,444(2):498.DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.12.016
[16]曹建廷,李原园,张文胜,等.农畜产品虚拟水研究的背景、方法及意义[J].水科学进展,2004,15(6):829-834.(CAO J T,LI Y Y,ZHANG W S,et al.Research background,methodological issues and significance on virtual water of crop and livestock production[J].Advances in Water Science,2004,15(6):829-834.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1001-6791.2004.06.025.
[17] MEKONNEN M M,HOEKSTRA A Y.A global assessment of the water footprint of farm animal products[J].Ecosystems,2012,15(3):401-415.DOI:10.1007/s10021-011-9517-8.
[18] CASTILLO R M,FENG K,HUBACEK K,et al.Uncovering the green,blue,and grey water footprint and virtual water of biofuel production in Brazil:A Nexus Perspective[J].Sustainability,2017,9(11):2049.DOI:10.3390/su9112049.
[19] XU Z,CHENG G,CHEN D,et al.Economic diversity,development capacity and sustainable development of China[J].Ecological Economics,2002,40(3):369-378.DOI:10.1016/S0921-8009(02)00005-8.
[20]蔡甲冰,刘钰,许迪,等.基于通径分析原理的冬小麦缺水诊断指标敏感性分析[J].水利学报,2008,39(1):83-90.(CAI J B,LIU Y,XU D,et al.Sensitivity analysis on water deficit indicator of winter wheat based on path analysis theory[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2008,39(1):83-90.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:0559-9350.2008.01.014.
[21]孙世坤,王玉宝,吴普特,等.小麦生产水足迹区域差异及归因分析[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(13):142-148.(SUN S K,WANG Y B,WU P T,et al.Spatial variability and attribution analysis of water footprint of wheat in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2015,31(13):142-148.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.13.020.
[22]杨青,朱瑞祥,张捷,等.陕西省农业机械化对农业生产贡献率的研究[J].农业工程学报,2000,16(6):64-67.(YANG Q,ZHU X R,ZHANG J,et al.Mechanization profit portion estimation in plant products industry in Shaanxi province[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2000,16(6):64-67.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1002-6819.2000.06.016.