1950—2014年我国麻疹数据时刻特征分析及ARIMA模型预测
|
摘要
目的掌握1950—2014年中国麻疹时刻流行特征并预测麻疹发病趋势,为探索下一步麻疹防控策略提供依据。方法对1950—2014年我国麻疹的时间分布和空间分布情况进行描述性分析,并通过1950—2014年的麻疹发病数据建立ARIMA模型,预测麻疹发病趋势。结果我国麻疹30年以来以及10年以来的发病率呈下降趋势,东北部和西北部一直是麻疹高发地区,中部和东南部地区则发病率相对较小。得到模型ARIMA(2,1,0),并预测2015—2025年的发病率。结论我国麻疹发病率存在显著空间差异,北部尤其是东北部地区是麻疹防控重点区域;经ARIMA模型预测,我国未来10年没有大型麻疹流行趋势。
[Objective]To investigate the spatial-temporal characteristics and predict the incidence trend of measles in China from 1950-2014,and provide evidence for exploring the policy for measles prevention and control. [Methods] Descriptive analysis of time distribution and spatial distribution of measles from 1950-2014 was carried out. The ARIMA model was established based on incidence data of measles in China from 1950-2014 to predict the incidence trend. [Results] The incidence rates of measles in China were decline in recent 30 years and 10 years. The northeastern and northwestern regions were the high prevalence areas of measles. The incidence rates in the central and southeastern regions were relatively low. The model ARIM A(2,1,0) was got and used to predict the incidence rate of 2015-2025.[Conclusion] There is a significant spatial difference in the incidence of measles in our country. The northern region especially northeastern region was the key area for prevention and control of measles.According to the ARIMA model prediction,there is no major epidemic situation of measles in the next 10 years.
[Objective]To investigate the spatial-temporal characteristics and predict the incidence trend of measles in China from 1950-2014,and provide evidence for exploring the policy for measles prevention and control. [Methods] Descriptive analysis of time distribution and spatial distribution of measles from 1950-2014 was carried out. The ARIMA model was established based on incidence data of measles in China from 1950-2014 to predict the incidence trend. [Results] The incidence rates of measles in China were decline in recent 30 years and 10 years. The northeastern and northwestern regions were the high prevalence areas of measles. The incidence rates in the central and southeastern regions were relatively low. The model ARIM A(2,1,0) was got and used to predict the incidence rate of 2015-2025.[Conclusion] There is a significant spatial difference in the incidence of measles in our country. The northern region especially northeastern region was the key area for prevention and control of measles.According to the ARIMA model prediction,there is no major epidemic situation of measles in the next 10 years.
引文
[1]周安仁,商新梅,商开国.湖北省黄梅县2004—2008年麻疹流行病学特征分析[J].中国预防医学杂志,2010,11(5):526-527.
[2]荆红梅,陈淑珍,赵俊霞,等.山西省运城市2001—2010年麻疹流行病学特征分析[J].实用医技杂志,2011,18(7):690-691.
[3]兰洁,德佳,田丽丽.北京市东城区和平里地区麻疹流行病学特征[J].首都公共卫生,2010,4(6):269-270.
[4]农秋锋.我国现阶段麻疹流行特点及消除策略[J].右江民族医学院学报,2015(3):506-507.
[5]戴智勤.安徽省麻疹流行病学特征及强化免疫效果研究[D].上海:复旦大学,2012:9-10.
[6]李刚.济宁市麻疹预防控制效果评价[D].济南:山东大学,2013:8-9.
[7]中国人民共和国国家卫生和计划生育委员会.卫生部关于印发《2006-2012年全国消除麻疹行动计划》的通知[EB/OL].(2007-02-15)[2017-11-07].http://www.nhfpc.gov.cn/zwgk/wtwj/201304/c414dcc50e224e53814ad1d7ab2f645d.shtml.
[8]彭志行,陶红,贾成梅,等.时间序列分析在麻疹疫情预测预警中的应用研究[J].中国卫生统计,2010,27(5):459-463.
[9]姚英,沈毅.手足口病发病趋势的ARIMA模型预测[J].浙江预防医学,2015,27(2):147-149.
[10]刘淑霞.1963—2010年聊城市麻疹疫情变迁及原因分析[D].济南:山东大学,2012:11-12.
[11]李舰,王法梓.我国麻疹防治措施现状总述[J].医学动物防制,2007,23(3):174-176.
[12]孙文正.2009—2014年莘县麻疹流行病学分析[J].预防医学论坛,2016,22(3):225-227.
[14]殷青宁,马凤美.高原地区小婴儿麻疹合并重症肺炎23例临床分析[J].中外健康文摘,2012,9(11):223.
[2]荆红梅,陈淑珍,赵俊霞,等.山西省运城市2001—2010年麻疹流行病学特征分析[J].实用医技杂志,2011,18(7):690-691.
[3]兰洁,德佳,田丽丽.北京市东城区和平里地区麻疹流行病学特征[J].首都公共卫生,2010,4(6):269-270.
[4]农秋锋.我国现阶段麻疹流行特点及消除策略[J].右江民族医学院学报,2015(3):506-507.
[5]戴智勤.安徽省麻疹流行病学特征及强化免疫效果研究[D].上海:复旦大学,2012:9-10.
[6]李刚.济宁市麻疹预防控制效果评价[D].济南:山东大学,2013:8-9.
[7]中国人民共和国国家卫生和计划生育委员会.卫生部关于印发《2006-2012年全国消除麻疹行动计划》的通知[EB/OL].(2007-02-15)[2017-11-07].http://www.nhfpc.gov.cn/zwgk/wtwj/201304/c414dcc50e224e53814ad1d7ab2f645d.shtml.
[8]彭志行,陶红,贾成梅,等.时间序列分析在麻疹疫情预测预警中的应用研究[J].中国卫生统计,2010,27(5):459-463.
[9]姚英,沈毅.手足口病发病趋势的ARIMA模型预测[J].浙江预防医学,2015,27(2):147-149.
[10]刘淑霞.1963—2010年聊城市麻疹疫情变迁及原因分析[D].济南:山东大学,2012:11-12.
[11]李舰,王法梓.我国麻疹防治措施现状总述[J].医学动物防制,2007,23(3):174-176.
[12]孙文正.2009—2014年莘县麻疹流行病学分析[J].预防医学论坛,2016,22(3):225-227.
[14]殷青宁,马凤美.高原地区小婴儿麻疹合并重症肺炎23例临床分析[J].中外健康文摘,2012,9(11):223.