中蒙俄高铁建设的影响机理及对策
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摘要
中蒙俄高铁建设是促进中蒙俄交通基础设施互联互通、打造国际陆上交通走廊的重要举措,是中蒙俄经济走廊建设的重要突破口。科学合理地布局中蒙俄高铁线路、规避高铁建设面临的不利影响和风险,急需理清高铁建设的影响因子,揭示其作用机理和空间分布格局,制定针对性强的防控对策。本文分析了中蒙俄高铁建设的主要影响因子,阐明了各类因子对高铁建设的影响机理,通过构建一种综合集成的影响指数评估模型(IIIEM),量化评估了不同地区各类影响因子的影响指数,揭示了其空间分布格局,并据此制定了消除影响的中蒙俄高铁东线和西线的线路布局建议方案。提出通过"高铁换资源、高铁换市场"等互利共赢创新合作模式,消除经济影响;加强沟通和技术展示,降低社会影响;通过设置缓冲区及高科技手段,规避生态风险;构建中蒙俄跨境地区三大生态风险跨国联合防控体系,加强政策对接,促进中蒙俄经济一体化等防控对策及保障措施。本研究将为中蒙俄高铁建设线路科学合理布局、风险防控提供科技支撑和决策参考。
The construction of China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway(CMRHSR) is a strategic move to promote inter-connectivity of transportation infrastructure and to build international land transportation corridor among China, Mongolia and Russia. However, a wellplanned CMRHSR demands that we accurately clarify the main influencing factors of highspeed railway construction, reveal its influence mechanism and spatial pattern, and formulate targeted prevention and control measures. Therefore, this study analyzes the main factors influencing the construction of the CMRHSR, clarifies its influence mechanism on high-speed railway construction. By establishing an integrated influence index evaluation model(IIIEM),we evaluate the magnitudes of different influencing factors in all research units, and reveal their spatial pattern. We found that economy, society and ecology are the key factors influencing high-speed railway construction. Regions with great economic influence are Zabaykalsky Krai, Republic of Buryatia, and Mongolia due to their underdeveloped economy,slow even negative economic growth, sparsely distributed and declining population, as well as poor transportation, which suggests poor profitability for high-speed railways in the short-term.Regions with great social influence are Mongolia, Zabaykalsky Krai, Republic of Buryatia and Irkutsk Oblast due to the high unemployment rate in Mongolia and relatively low government and residential support because of geopolitical and ecological destruction concerns arising from high-speed railway construction, which reduces the feasibility on the construction of highspeed railway. Regions with great ecological influence are Heilongjiang, Buryat Republic,Irkutsk Oblast, and Zabaykalsky Krai due to their favorable ecological environment and rich biodiversity, which suggests a high ecological destruction risk; regions with great disaster influence is Mongolia due to its frequent disasters, which may increase the difficulty of railway construction. Then, according to the distribution of influencing factors, we propose designs for the east and west CMRHSR and policy suggestions to mitigate impacts on high-speed railway construction. Suggestions include establishing innovative cooperation mode of "high-speed rail for resources and markets" to reduce economic influence; strengthening communication and high-tech propaganda to reduce social influence; setting up buffers and applying high-tech engineering techniques to reduce ecological risk. Some measures are proposed to mitigate construction influence such as establishing joint prevention system of three major ecological risks in China, Mongolia and Russia trans-border areas, and enhancing strategic collaboration and promoting economic integration among the three countries.
The construction of China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway(CMRHSR) is a strategic move to promote inter-connectivity of transportation infrastructure and to build international land transportation corridor among China, Mongolia and Russia. However, a wellplanned CMRHSR demands that we accurately clarify the main influencing factors of highspeed railway construction, reveal its influence mechanism and spatial pattern, and formulate targeted prevention and control measures. Therefore, this study analyzes the main factors influencing the construction of the CMRHSR, clarifies its influence mechanism on high-speed railway construction. By establishing an integrated influence index evaluation model(IIIEM),we evaluate the magnitudes of different influencing factors in all research units, and reveal their spatial pattern. We found that economy, society and ecology are the key factors influencing high-speed railway construction. Regions with great economic influence are Zabaykalsky Krai, Republic of Buryatia, and Mongolia due to their underdeveloped economy,slow even negative economic growth, sparsely distributed and declining population, as well as poor transportation, which suggests poor profitability for high-speed railways in the short-term.Regions with great social influence are Mongolia, Zabaykalsky Krai, Republic of Buryatia and Irkutsk Oblast due to the high unemployment rate in Mongolia and relatively low government and residential support because of geopolitical and ecological destruction concerns arising from high-speed railway construction, which reduces the feasibility on the construction of highspeed railway. Regions with great ecological influence are Heilongjiang, Buryat Republic,Irkutsk Oblast, and Zabaykalsky Krai due to their favorable ecological environment and rich biodiversity, which suggests a high ecological destruction risk; regions with great disaster influence is Mongolia due to its frequent disasters, which may increase the difficulty of railway construction. Then, according to the distribution of influencing factors, we propose designs for the east and west CMRHSR and policy suggestions to mitigate impacts on high-speed railway construction. Suggestions include establishing innovative cooperation mode of "high-speed rail for resources and markets" to reduce economic influence; strengthening communication and high-tech propaganda to reduce social influence; setting up buffers and applying high-tech engineering techniques to reduce ecological risk. Some measures are proposed to mitigate construction influence such as establishing joint prevention system of three major ecological risks in China, Mongolia and Russia trans-border areas, and enhancing strategic collaboration and promoting economic integration among the three countries.
引文
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[2] Ministry of Commerce of PRC. The Russian government has approved the development of the international transport corridor for Binhai 1 and Binhai 2. http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/i/jyjl/e/201701/20170102494758.shtml, 2017-01-03/2018-07-31.[商务部.俄政府批准“滨海1号”和“滨海2号”国际交通走廊开发构想. http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/i/jyjl/e/201701/20170102494758.shtml, 2017-01-03/2018-07-31.]
[3] Heilongjiang Province People's Government. Minister of Russian far east development:Russia and China are expected to sign a cooperation agreement on Binhai 1 and Binhai 2 in July. http://www.hlj.gov.cn/ztzl/system/2017/05/19/010828704.shtml, 2017-05-19/2018-07-31.[黑龙江人民政府.俄远东发展部部长:俄中拟于7月签署“滨海1号”与“滨海2号”合作协议. http://www.hlj.gov.cn/ztzl/system/2017/05/19/010828704.shtml, 2017-05-19/2018-07-31.]
[4] Okada H. Features and economic and social effects of the Shinkanse. Japan Railway&Transport Review, 1994(10):9-16.
[5] Ryder A. High speed rail. Journal of Transport Geography, 2012, 22:303-305.
[6] Xu Changle, XunYali. Regional influence and significance of the high-speed rail era. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2011, 20(6):650-654.[徐长乐,郇亚丽.高铁时代到来的区域影响和意义.长江流域资源与环境,2011, 20(6):650-654.]
[7] Yu Tao, Chen Zhao, Zhu Pengyu. Characteristics and mechanism of high speed rail-driven suburbanization in China:A case study of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2012, 32(9):1041-1046.][于涛,陈昭,朱鹏宇.高铁驱动中国城市郊区化的特征与机制研究:以京沪高铁为例.地理科学, 2012, 32(9):1041-1046.]
[8] Wang Degen, Niu Yu, Chen Tian, et al. Optimizing tourist spatial structure for large scale regional metropolitan circles under the Beijing-Shanghai High-speed. Resources Science, 2015, 37(3):581-592.[汪德根,牛玉,陈田,等.高铁驱动下大尺度区域都市圈旅游空间结构优化:以京沪高铁为例.资源科学, 2015, 37(3):581-592.]
[9] Wang Degen, Chen Tian, Lu Lin, et al. Mechanism and HSR effect of spatial structure of regional tourist flow:Case study of Beijing-Shanghai HSR in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(2):214-233.[汪德根,陈田,陆林,等.区域旅游流空间结构的高铁效应及机理:以中国京沪高铁为例.地理学报, 2015, 70(2):214-233.]
[10] Wang Degen. The influence of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway on tourist flow and time-space distribution.Tourism Tribune, 2014, 29(1):75-82.[汪德根.京沪高铁对主要站点旅游时空分布影响.旅游学刊, 2014, 29(1):75-82.]
[11] Chen C L. Reshaping Chinese space-economy through high-speed trains:Opportunities and challenges. Journal of Transport Geography, 2012, 22:312-316.
[12] Shaw S L, Fang Z X, Lu, S W, et al. Impacts of high speed rail on railroad network accessibility in China. Journal of Transport Geography, 2014, 40:112-122.
[13] Preston J. High speed rail in Britain:About time or a waste of time? Journal of Transport Geography, 2012, 22:308-311.
[14] Givoni M. Development and impact of the modern high-speed train:A review. Transport Reviews, 2006, 26(5):593-611.
[15] Zhong Yexi, Huang Jie, Wen Yuzhao. Impact of high-speed railway on spatial patterns of Chinese cities'accessibility.Scientica Geographica Sinica, 2015, 35(4):387-395.[钟业喜,黄洁,文玉钊.高铁对中国城市可达性格局的影响分析.地理科学, 2015, 35(4):387-395.]
[16] Jiang Bo, Chu Nanchen, Xiu Chunliang, et al. Comprehensive evaluation and comparative analysis of accessibility in the four vertical and four horizontal HSR networks in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(4):591-604.[姜博,初楠臣,修春亮,等.中国“四纵四横”高铁网络可达性综合评估与对比.地理学报, 2016, 71(4):591-604.]
[17] Jiang Haibing, Xu Jiangang, Qi Yi. The influence of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railways on land accessibility of regional center cities. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(10):1287-1298.[蒋海兵,徐建刚,祁毅.京沪高铁对区域中心城市陆路可达性影响.地理学报, 2010, 65(10):1287-1298.]
[18] Mu Chenglin, Lu Lin, Huang Jianfeng, et al. Research on Yangtze River delta tourist traffic pattern and linkage under high-speed rail network. Economic Geography, 2015, 35(12):193-202.[穆成林,陆林,黄剑锋,等.高铁网络下的长三角旅游交通格局及联系研究.经济地理, 2015, 35(12):193-202.]
[19] European Commission. The treaty on the European Union. Luxembourg, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 1992.
[20] European Commission. White Paper on Growth, Competitiveness and Employment. Luxembourg, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 1994.
[21] OECD. Competitive interaction between airports, airlines and high speed rail. http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-AssetManagement/oecd/transport/competitive-interaction-between-airports-airlines-and-high-speed-rail_9789282102466en#page1, 2009-07-01.
[22] Givoni M. Aircraft and high speed train substitution:The case for airline and railway integration. London:University of London, 2005.
[23] Ding Jinxue, Jin Fengjun, Wang Jiaoe, et al. Competition game of high-speed rail and civil aviation and its spatial effect:A case study of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail. Economic Geography, 2013, 33(5):104-110.[丁金学,金凤君,王娇娥,等.高铁与民航的竞争博弈及其空间效应.经济地理, 2013, 33(5):104-110.]
[24] Duan Xiaochen, Hu Rui, Zhang Xiaoping, et al. Research on methods of evaluating original ecosystem and environmental degeneration in the high-speed railway regions. Journal of the China Railway Society, 2015, 37(3):100-106.[段晓晨,胡锐,张小平,等.高铁区域生态原貌和退化评价方法研究.铁道学报, 2015, 37(3):100-106.]
[25] Yu Zhongyuan. Study on the ecological environmental efficiency and its evolution of Hainan province before and after high-speed railway operations. Ecological Sciences, 2015, 34(5):187-195.[余中元.高铁运营前后海南省生态环境效益及其演变研究.生态科学, 2015, 34(5):187-195.]
[26] China Economic Herald. Construction of west line of Russia-Mongolia-China economic corridor is of great significance. http://www.ceh.com.cn/cjpd/2015/09/870795.shtml. 2015-09-25/2017-04-25.[中国经济导报.构建西线中蒙俄经济走廊意义重大. http://www.ceh.com.cn/cjpd/2015/09/870795.shtml. 2015-09-25/2017-04-25.]
[27] China Economic Times. The green development mode of the"B&R". 2017-05-11(A05).[中国经济时报.“一带一路”绿色发展模式. 2017-05-11(A05).]
[28] Ou Jie, Song Di, Zhou Nanyan. World Bank Report of China high-speed railway:Construction cost analysis. http://www.worldbank.org/en/research, 2014-07/2017-05-21.[欧杰,宋迪,周楠燕.世界银行报告:中国高速铁路—建设成本分析. http://www.worldbank.org/en/research, 2014-07/2017-05-21.]
[29] Popp J N, Boyle S P. Railway ecology:Underrepresented in science? Basic and Applied Ecology, 2017, 19:84-93.
[30] Ozturk Z, Ozturk T. Ecological factor of the land transport:On Istanbul. Teknik Dergi, 2010, 21(1):4979-4985.
[31] He G Z, Zhang L, Lu Y L. Environmental impact assessment and environmental audit in large-scale public infrastructure construction:The case of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway. Environmental Management, 2009, 44:579-589.
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