“一带一路”技术贸易格局演化研究
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摘要
论文利用2001—2015年国家(地区)间的知识产权贸易额,通过构建全球和"一带一路"技术贸易网络,从技术供给和技术销售层面刻画了"一带一路"技术贸易格局及其动态变化过程,研究发现:①在"一带一路"内部技术贸易网络中,内部技术进口格局由独联体、中东欧地区主导向东亚地区主导转变,内部技术出口格局由西亚地区"一极主导"向东盟-西亚-东亚"三极主导"格局转变,"一带一路"在内部国家(地区)技术供给链中的地位非常低下,大量的技术需要从外部进口,但"一带一路"作为技术销售市场在内部国家(地区)技术销售链中的地位显著提升;②在"一带一路"外部技术贸易网络中,外部技术进口格局由东盟向东亚更替,而外部技术出口格局始终由以新加坡为核心的东盟地区主导,"一带一路"在国际技术销售市场中的地位显著提升,但其在国际技术供给链中的地位十分低下;③从技术贸易类型上看,内流型国家(地区)占主导,大部分"一带一路"国家(地区)依赖内部技术贸易来实现技术互补,而高技术贸易额国家(地区)大多都为"两头在外"型,"一带一路"区域技术贸易网络尚未形成。
Based on the imports and exports of intellectual property rights between countries(regions) from 2001 to 2015 and by mapping the global(external) and local(internal) technology trade networks, this study examined the technology trade pattern and change of the Belt and Road region from the global and local perspectives. We found that: 1) In the local(internal) technology trade network, internal technology imports pattern has changed from CIS(Commonwealth of the Independent States) and CEU(Central and Eastern Europe countries)dominated to East Asia countries dominated, and internal technology exports pattern has shifted from "one leading pole" of West Asia countries to the "three poles" of countries in ASEAN, West Asia, and East Asia. The Belt and Road region has a very low status in the internal technology supply chain. A large number of technologies need to be imported from the outside, but as a technology sales market, the Belt and Road region has significantly improved its position in the internal technology sales chain. 2) In the global(external)technology trade network, external technology imports pattern has changed from ASEAN dominated to East Asia dominated, and external technology exports pattern was always dominated by the ASEAN region with Singapore at the core. The Belt and Road region has significantly improved its position in the international technology sales market, but its position in the international technology supply chain was always very low. 3) With regard to the types of technology trade, most of the countries along the Belt and Road relied on internal technology trade to achieve technological complementarity, while the technology supply and sales of the countries with high technology trades were mainly relying on the outside. The regional technology trade network of the Belt and Road region has not yet been formed. At the end of the article, we recommend that China should increase its exports of technology to countries along the Belt and Road and build a regional technology cooperation network along the Belt and Road as soon as possible.
Based on the imports and exports of intellectual property rights between countries(regions) from 2001 to 2015 and by mapping the global(external) and local(internal) technology trade networks, this study examined the technology trade pattern and change of the Belt and Road region from the global and local perspectives. We found that: 1) In the local(internal) technology trade network, internal technology imports pattern has changed from CIS(Commonwealth of the Independent States) and CEU(Central and Eastern Europe countries)dominated to East Asia countries dominated, and internal technology exports pattern has shifted from "one leading pole" of West Asia countries to the "three poles" of countries in ASEAN, West Asia, and East Asia. The Belt and Road region has a very low status in the internal technology supply chain. A large number of technologies need to be imported from the outside, but as a technology sales market, the Belt and Road region has significantly improved its position in the internal technology sales chain. 2) In the global(external)technology trade network, external technology imports pattern has changed from ASEAN dominated to East Asia dominated, and external technology exports pattern was always dominated by the ASEAN region with Singapore at the core. The Belt and Road region has significantly improved its position in the international technology sales market, but its position in the international technology supply chain was always very low. 3) With regard to the types of technology trade, most of the countries along the Belt and Road relied on internal technology trade to achieve technological complementarity, while the technology supply and sales of the countries with high technology trades were mainly relying on the outside. The regional technology trade network of the Belt and Road region has not yet been formed. At the end of the article, we recommend that China should increase its exports of technology to countries along the Belt and Road and build a regional technology cooperation network along the Belt and Road as soon as possible.
引文
杜德斌,马亚华.2017“.一带一路”:全球治理模式的新探索[J].地理研究,36(7):1203-1209.[Du D B,Ma Y H.2017.One Belt and One Road:A new way of global governance.Geographical Research,36(7):1203-1209.]
金卓,杨若愚.2017.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家科技合作中高影响力文献特征研究:基于ESI数据库高被引论文的计量分析[J].科技管理研究,(20):14-20.[Jin Z,Yang R Y.2017.Study of high influence papers in China's S&Tcooperation with countries in"the Belt and Road"initiative area:Bibliometrics of highly cited papers based on ESI database.Science and Technology Management Research,(20):14-20.]
李兵,颜晓晨.2018.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家双边贸易的新比较优势:公共安全的视角[J].经济研究,(1):183-197.[Li B,Yan X C.2018.China's new comparative advantage of trading with Belt and Road countries:Public securi-ty perspectives.Economic Research Journal,(1):183-197.]
李敬,陈旎,万广华,等.2017.“一带一路”沿线国家货物贸易的竞争互补关系及动态变化:基于网络分析方法[J].管理世界,(4):10-19.[Li J,Chen N,Wan G H,et al.2017.The complementary relationship and dynamic changes of national goods trade along the Belt and Road Initiative based on network analysis methods.Management World,(4):10-19.]
李晓,李俊久.2015“.一带一路”与中国地缘政治经济战略的重构[J].世界经济与政治,(10):30-59.[Li X,Li J J.2015."One Belt and One Road"and the reshaping of China's geopolitical and geo-economic strategy.World Economics and Politics,(10):30-59.]
刘承良,桂钦昌,段德忠,等.2017.全球科研论文合作网络的结构异质性及其邻近性机理[J].地理学报,72(4):737-752.[Liu C L,Gui Q C,Duan D Z,et al.2017.Structural heterogeneity and proximity mechanism of global scientific collaboration network based on co-authored papers.Acta Geographica Sinica,72(4):737-752.]
刘卫东.2015“.一带一路”战略的科学内涵与科学问题[J].地理科学进展,34(5):538-544.[Liu W D.2015.Scientific understanding of the Belt and Road Initiative of China and related research themes.Progress in Geography,34(5):538-544.]
刘卫东,宋周莺,刘志高,等.2018“.一带一路”建设研究进展[J].地理学报,73(4):620-636.[Liu W D,Song Z Y,Liu Z G,et al.2018.Progress in research on the Belt and Road Initiative.Acta Geographica Sinica,73(4):620-636.]
刘晓凤,葛岳静,赵亚博.2017.国家距离与中国企业在“一带一路”投资区位选择[J].经济地理,37(11):99-108.[Liu X F,Ge Y J,Zhao Y B.2017.National distance and Chinese companies'choice of location along the Belt and Road.Economic Geography,37(11):99-108.]
陆梦秋,陈娱,陆玉麒,等.2018.“一带一路”倡议下欧亚大陆陆海运输的空间均衡分析[J].地理学报,73(8):1526-1539.[Lu M Q,Chen Y,Lu Y Q,et al.2018.The spatial balance pattern between land and sea transport in EuropeAsia under the Belt and Road Initiative.Acta Geographica Sinica,73(8):1526-1539.]
司增绰,周坤,仇方道,等.2018.中国对“一带一路”沿线国家出口增长的边际特征时空变化[J].地理科学,38(11):1777-1787.[Si Z C,Zhou K,Qiu F D,et al.2018.The temporal and spatial variation of margin characteristics of China's export growth to countries along the Belt and Road.Scientia Geographica Sinica,38(11):1777-1787.]
宋长青,葛岳静,刘云刚,等.2018.从地缘关系视角解析“一带一路”的行动路径[J].地理研究,37(1):3-19.[Song CQ,Ge Y J,Liu Y G,et al.2018.Undertaking research on Belt and Road Initiative from the geo-relation perspective.Geographical Research,37(1):3-19.]
宋周莺,车姝韵,杨宇.2017.“一带一路”贸易网络与全球贸易网络的拓扑关系[J].地理科学进展,36(11):1340-1348.[Song Z Y,Che S Y,Yang Y.2017.Topological relationship between trade network in the Belt and Road Initiative area and global trade network.Progress in Geography,36(11):1340-1348.]
佟家栋.2017.“一带一路”倡议的理论超越[J].经济研究,(12):22-25.[Tong J D.2017.Theoretical advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative.Economic Research Journal,(12):22-25.]
王姣娥,焦敬娟,景悦,等.2017.“中欧班列”陆路运输腹地范围测算与枢纽识别[J].地理科学进展,36(11):1332-1339.[Wang J E,Jiao J J,Jing Y,et al.2017.Transport hinterlands of border ports by China-Europe express trains and hub identification.Progress in Geography,36(11):1332-1339.]
王姣娥,王涵,焦敬娟.2015“.一带一路”与中国对外航空运输联系[J].地理科学进展,34(5):554-562.[Wang J E,Wang H,Jiao J J.2015.China's international aviation transport to the Belt and Road Initiative area.Progress in Geography,34(5):554-562.]
王列辉,朱艳.2017.基于“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的中国国际航运网络演化[J].地理学报,72(12):2265-2280.[Wang L H,Zhu Y.2017.The evolution of China's international maritime network based on the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.Acta Geographica Sinica,72(12):2265-2280.]
吴建南,杨若愚.2016.中国与“一带一路”国家的科技合作态势研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,37(1):14-20.[Wu J N,Yang R Y.2016.Study of science and technology cooperation among China and countries in One Belt and One Road Initiative area.Science of Science and Management of S.&T.,37(1):14-20.]
郗笃刚,刘建忠,周桥,等.2018.“一带一路”建设在印度洋地区面临的地缘风险分析[J].世界地理研究,27(6):14-23.[Xi D G,Liu J Z,Zhou Q,et al.2018.Geopolitical risks for the One Belt and One Road construction in Indian Ocean Region.World Regional Studies,27(6):14-23.]
杨文龙,杜德斌,马亚华,等.2018.“一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络空间结构与邻近性[J].地理研究,37(11):2218-2235.[Yang W L,Du D B,Ma Y H,et al.2018.Network structure and proximity of the trade network in the Belt and Road region.Geographical Research,37(11):2218-2235.]
叶阳平,马文聪,张光宇.2016.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家科技合作现状研究:基于专利和论文的比较分析[J].图书情报知识,(4):60-68.[Ye Y P,Ma W C,Zhang G Y.2016.Research on the current situation of science and technology between China and countries along the Belt and Road:Comparative analysis based on patent and paper data.Documentation,Information&Knowledge,(4):60-68.]
张萃,欧阳冬平.2017.“一带一路”战略下中国国际科研合作影响因素研究:基于Web of Science数据库中外合作科研论文的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,(4):74-82.[Zhang C,Ouyang D P.2017.The determinants of China's international research cooperation under"the Belt and Road"strategy:An empirical analysis based on Web of Science database.Journal of International Trade,(4):74-82.]
张述存.2017.“一带一路”战略下优化中国对外直接投资布局的思路与对策[J].管理世界,(4):1-9.[Zhang S C.2017.The ideas and countermeasures of optimizing the distribution of China's foreign direct investments under the Belt and Road strategy.Management World,(4):1-9.]
Blanco P L,Karambelkar A.2015.India's perception and response to China's'One Belt,One Road'initiative:Views from Indian mainstream media[J].Asian Politics&Policy,7(4):667-671.
Deepak B R.2018.China's global rebalancing and the New Silk Road[M].Singapore,Singapore:Springer Verlag.
Ferdinand P.2016.Westward ho-the China dream and'one belt,one road':Chinese foreign policy under Xi Jinping[J].International Affairs,92(4):941-957.
Gui Q C,Liu C L,Du D B.2018.International knowledge flows and the role of proximity[J].Growth and Change,49(3):532-547.
Jin L.2015.The"New Silk Road"initiative:China's Marshall Plan?[J].China International Studies,(1):70-83.
Kohli H.2017.Looking at China's Belt and Road Initiative from the Central Asian perspective[J].Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies,9(1-3):3-11.
Newman M E J.2004.Fast algorithm for detecting community structure in networks[J].Physical Review E:Statistical,Nonlinear,and Soft Matter Physics,doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.69.066133.
Simon S,Wilson C.2018.A comparative study of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Marshall plan[J].Palgrave Communications,32(4):1-11.
Stokes J.2015.Beijing looks west for Eurasian integration[N].Foreign Affairs,2015-04-19.
Tiezzi S.2014.The New Silk Road:China's Marshall Plan?[N].The Diplomat,2014-11-06.
Zhang L,Luo M,Yang D,et al.2018.Impacts of trade liberalization on Chinese economy with Belt and Road initiative[J].Maritime Policy&Management,45(3):301-318.
(1)这里需要说明的是,国家(地区)间的知识产权贸易并不等同于国家(地区)间的技术贸易。根据世界贸易组织《与贸易有关的知识产权协议》(Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights, TRIPs)的规定,知识产权包括著作权与邻接权、商标权、地理标志权、工业品外观设计权、专利权、集成电路布线图设计权以及未披露的信息专有权,而国家(地区)间的技术贸易的客体仅是技术类的知识产权。
(2)由于“一带一路”是2013年提出,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)的技术贸易可能存在前后差别较大的情况,但这一点在数据上并未体现,因而本文也未将2013年的技术贸易情况单独列出。
金卓,杨若愚.2017.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家科技合作中高影响力文献特征研究:基于ESI数据库高被引论文的计量分析[J].科技管理研究,(20):14-20.[Jin Z,Yang R Y.2017.Study of high influence papers in China's S&Tcooperation with countries in"the Belt and Road"initiative area:Bibliometrics of highly cited papers based on ESI database.Science and Technology Management Research,(20):14-20.]
李兵,颜晓晨.2018.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家双边贸易的新比较优势:公共安全的视角[J].经济研究,(1):183-197.[Li B,Yan X C.2018.China's new comparative advantage of trading with Belt and Road countries:Public securi-ty perspectives.Economic Research Journal,(1):183-197.]
李敬,陈旎,万广华,等.2017.“一带一路”沿线国家货物贸易的竞争互补关系及动态变化:基于网络分析方法[J].管理世界,(4):10-19.[Li J,Chen N,Wan G H,et al.2017.The complementary relationship and dynamic changes of national goods trade along the Belt and Road Initiative based on network analysis methods.Management World,(4):10-19.]
李晓,李俊久.2015“.一带一路”与中国地缘政治经济战略的重构[J].世界经济与政治,(10):30-59.[Li X,Li J J.2015."One Belt and One Road"and the reshaping of China's geopolitical and geo-economic strategy.World Economics and Politics,(10):30-59.]
刘承良,桂钦昌,段德忠,等.2017.全球科研论文合作网络的结构异质性及其邻近性机理[J].地理学报,72(4):737-752.[Liu C L,Gui Q C,Duan D Z,et al.2017.Structural heterogeneity and proximity mechanism of global scientific collaboration network based on co-authored papers.Acta Geographica Sinica,72(4):737-752.]
刘卫东.2015“.一带一路”战略的科学内涵与科学问题[J].地理科学进展,34(5):538-544.[Liu W D.2015.Scientific understanding of the Belt and Road Initiative of China and related research themes.Progress in Geography,34(5):538-544.]
刘卫东,宋周莺,刘志高,等.2018“.一带一路”建设研究进展[J].地理学报,73(4):620-636.[Liu W D,Song Z Y,Liu Z G,et al.2018.Progress in research on the Belt and Road Initiative.Acta Geographica Sinica,73(4):620-636.]
刘晓凤,葛岳静,赵亚博.2017.国家距离与中国企业在“一带一路”投资区位选择[J].经济地理,37(11):99-108.[Liu X F,Ge Y J,Zhao Y B.2017.National distance and Chinese companies'choice of location along the Belt and Road.Economic Geography,37(11):99-108.]
陆梦秋,陈娱,陆玉麒,等.2018.“一带一路”倡议下欧亚大陆陆海运输的空间均衡分析[J].地理学报,73(8):1526-1539.[Lu M Q,Chen Y,Lu Y Q,et al.2018.The spatial balance pattern between land and sea transport in EuropeAsia under the Belt and Road Initiative.Acta Geographica Sinica,73(8):1526-1539.]
司增绰,周坤,仇方道,等.2018.中国对“一带一路”沿线国家出口增长的边际特征时空变化[J].地理科学,38(11):1777-1787.[Si Z C,Zhou K,Qiu F D,et al.2018.The temporal and spatial variation of margin characteristics of China's export growth to countries along the Belt and Road.Scientia Geographica Sinica,38(11):1777-1787.]
宋长青,葛岳静,刘云刚,等.2018.从地缘关系视角解析“一带一路”的行动路径[J].地理研究,37(1):3-19.[Song CQ,Ge Y J,Liu Y G,et al.2018.Undertaking research on Belt and Road Initiative from the geo-relation perspective.Geographical Research,37(1):3-19.]
宋周莺,车姝韵,杨宇.2017.“一带一路”贸易网络与全球贸易网络的拓扑关系[J].地理科学进展,36(11):1340-1348.[Song Z Y,Che S Y,Yang Y.2017.Topological relationship between trade network in the Belt and Road Initiative area and global trade network.Progress in Geography,36(11):1340-1348.]
佟家栋.2017.“一带一路”倡议的理论超越[J].经济研究,(12):22-25.[Tong J D.2017.Theoretical advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative.Economic Research Journal,(12):22-25.]
王姣娥,焦敬娟,景悦,等.2017.“中欧班列”陆路运输腹地范围测算与枢纽识别[J].地理科学进展,36(11):1332-1339.[Wang J E,Jiao J J,Jing Y,et al.2017.Transport hinterlands of border ports by China-Europe express trains and hub identification.Progress in Geography,36(11):1332-1339.]
王姣娥,王涵,焦敬娟.2015“.一带一路”与中国对外航空运输联系[J].地理科学进展,34(5):554-562.[Wang J E,Wang H,Jiao J J.2015.China's international aviation transport to the Belt and Road Initiative area.Progress in Geography,34(5):554-562.]
王列辉,朱艳.2017.基于“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的中国国际航运网络演化[J].地理学报,72(12):2265-2280.[Wang L H,Zhu Y.2017.The evolution of China's international maritime network based on the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.Acta Geographica Sinica,72(12):2265-2280.]
吴建南,杨若愚.2016.中国与“一带一路”国家的科技合作态势研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,37(1):14-20.[Wu J N,Yang R Y.2016.Study of science and technology cooperation among China and countries in One Belt and One Road Initiative area.Science of Science and Management of S.&T.,37(1):14-20.]
郗笃刚,刘建忠,周桥,等.2018.“一带一路”建设在印度洋地区面临的地缘风险分析[J].世界地理研究,27(6):14-23.[Xi D G,Liu J Z,Zhou Q,et al.2018.Geopolitical risks for the One Belt and One Road construction in Indian Ocean Region.World Regional Studies,27(6):14-23.]
杨文龙,杜德斌,马亚华,等.2018.“一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络空间结构与邻近性[J].地理研究,37(11):2218-2235.[Yang W L,Du D B,Ma Y H,et al.2018.Network structure and proximity of the trade network in the Belt and Road region.Geographical Research,37(11):2218-2235.]
叶阳平,马文聪,张光宇.2016.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家科技合作现状研究:基于专利和论文的比较分析[J].图书情报知识,(4):60-68.[Ye Y P,Ma W C,Zhang G Y.2016.Research on the current situation of science and technology between China and countries along the Belt and Road:Comparative analysis based on patent and paper data.Documentation,Information&Knowledge,(4):60-68.]
张萃,欧阳冬平.2017.“一带一路”战略下中国国际科研合作影响因素研究:基于Web of Science数据库中外合作科研论文的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,(4):74-82.[Zhang C,Ouyang D P.2017.The determinants of China's international research cooperation under"the Belt and Road"strategy:An empirical analysis based on Web of Science database.Journal of International Trade,(4):74-82.]
张述存.2017.“一带一路”战略下优化中国对外直接投资布局的思路与对策[J].管理世界,(4):1-9.[Zhang S C.2017.The ideas and countermeasures of optimizing the distribution of China's foreign direct investments under the Belt and Road strategy.Management World,(4):1-9.]
Blanco P L,Karambelkar A.2015.India's perception and response to China's'One Belt,One Road'initiative:Views from Indian mainstream media[J].Asian Politics&Policy,7(4):667-671.
Deepak B R.2018.China's global rebalancing and the New Silk Road[M].Singapore,Singapore:Springer Verlag.
Ferdinand P.2016.Westward ho-the China dream and'one belt,one road':Chinese foreign policy under Xi Jinping[J].International Affairs,92(4):941-957.
Gui Q C,Liu C L,Du D B.2018.International knowledge flows and the role of proximity[J].Growth and Change,49(3):532-547.
Jin L.2015.The"New Silk Road"initiative:China's Marshall Plan?[J].China International Studies,(1):70-83.
Kohli H.2017.Looking at China's Belt and Road Initiative from the Central Asian perspective[J].Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies,9(1-3):3-11.
Newman M E J.2004.Fast algorithm for detecting community structure in networks[J].Physical Review E:Statistical,Nonlinear,and Soft Matter Physics,doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.69.066133.
Simon S,Wilson C.2018.A comparative study of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Marshall plan[J].Palgrave Communications,32(4):1-11.
Stokes J.2015.Beijing looks west for Eurasian integration[N].Foreign Affairs,2015-04-19.
Tiezzi S.2014.The New Silk Road:China's Marshall Plan?[N].The Diplomat,2014-11-06.
Zhang L,Luo M,Yang D,et al.2018.Impacts of trade liberalization on Chinese economy with Belt and Road initiative[J].Maritime Policy&Management,45(3):301-318.
(1)这里需要说明的是,国家(地区)间的知识产权贸易并不等同于国家(地区)间的技术贸易。根据世界贸易组织《与贸易有关的知识产权协议》(Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights, TRIPs)的规定,知识产权包括著作权与邻接权、商标权、地理标志权、工业品外观设计权、专利权、集成电路布线图设计权以及未披露的信息专有权,而国家(地区)间的技术贸易的客体仅是技术类的知识产权。
(2)由于“一带一路”是2013年提出,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)的技术贸易可能存在前后差别较大的情况,但这一点在数据上并未体现,因而本文也未将2013年的技术贸易情况单独列出。