基于贝叶斯网的船舶溢油应急演练绩效评价
|
摘要
对船舶溢油应急演练的影响因素进行汇总和归类,构建基于演练准备、演练实施和演练后评估3个阶段的应急演练评价指标体系,运用贝叶斯网络,实现船舶溢油应急演练绩效的定量化评价,可为提高海上船舶溢油应急演练效果提供依据。
By analyzing and classifying the influencing factors of emergency response exercise for the ship oil spill,the evaluation index system of the emergency exercise for the ship oil spill was setup. The evaluation is divided into three stages: preparation for drills,implementation of drills and post-exercise assessment. The Bayesian network was applied to quantitatively evaluate the performance of the ship oil spill emergency response,providing a reference for improving the effectiveness of the marine oil spill emergency drills.
By analyzing and classifying the influencing factors of emergency response exercise for the ship oil spill,the evaluation index system of the emergency exercise for the ship oil spill was setup. The evaluation is divided into three stages: preparation for drills,implementation of drills and post-exercise assessment. The Bayesian network was applied to quantitatively evaluate the performance of the ship oil spill emergency response,providing a reference for improving the effectiveness of the marine oil spill emergency drills.
引文
[1]郑国平.基于贝叶斯网络的地方政府绩效评估的研究[D].厦门:厦门大学,2009.
[2]刘莉,徐浩军,井凤玲,等.基于贝叶斯网络的飞行安全人因可靠性评估模型[J].空军工程大学学报,2009,10(3):5-9.
[3]侯政良,杨自春,初珠立.基于贝叶斯网络的船舶人因安全性评估模型[J].船舶工程,2011,33(1):78-81.
[4]张欣.船舶溢油应急处置人因可靠性评估研究[M].上海:上海交通大学出版社,2011.
[5]CAI Bao-ping,LIU Yong-hong,LIU Zeng-kai.Application of Bayesian networks in quantitative risk assessment of subsea blowout preventer operations[J].Risk analysis,2013,33(7):1 293-1 311.
[6]XIAO Feng-liang,HONG Dong-wang,HONG Yi,et al.Warship reliability evaluation based on dynamic bayesian networks and numerical simulation[J].Ocean engineering,2017,136(15):129-140.
[7]张长林,薛保贵,程仁德.公路突发事件应急能力评价模型研究[J].科学决策,2014(9):82-94.
[8]陈庆郴.温州港口溢油应急能力评估[D].大连:大连海事大学,2009.
[9]张晓雷.基于未确知测度的上海水域溢油应急能力评价研究[J].航海,2014(5):60-63.
[10]朱慧.重大突发事件应急演练评估方法改进研究:KPI和模糊综合评价法的结合[D].北京:首都经济师范大学,2016.
[11]高玮.宁波海域船舶污染应急能力评价[D].大连:大连海事大学,2015.
[12]曹巍.船载危化品污染事故应急能力评价体系研究[D].大连:大连海事大学,2010.
[13]陈晓南.大连新港溢油应急能力评估[D].大连:大连海事大学,2011.
[14]李群,代德军.突发事件应急演练评估方法、技术及系统研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015(7):49-54.
[15]Ramírez-Noriega A,Juárez-Ramírez R,MartínezRamírez Y.Evaluation module based on Bayesian networks to intelligent tutoring systems[J].International journal of information management,2017,37:1488-1498.
[16]葛轶,周布祥.基于超椭球贝叶斯网络的配电系统可靠性评估[J].电测与仪表,2017,54(1):22-26.
[2]刘莉,徐浩军,井凤玲,等.基于贝叶斯网络的飞行安全人因可靠性评估模型[J].空军工程大学学报,2009,10(3):5-9.
[3]侯政良,杨自春,初珠立.基于贝叶斯网络的船舶人因安全性评估模型[J].船舶工程,2011,33(1):78-81.
[4]张欣.船舶溢油应急处置人因可靠性评估研究[M].上海:上海交通大学出版社,2011.
[5]CAI Bao-ping,LIU Yong-hong,LIU Zeng-kai.Application of Bayesian networks in quantitative risk assessment of subsea blowout preventer operations[J].Risk analysis,2013,33(7):1 293-1 311.
[6]XIAO Feng-liang,HONG Dong-wang,HONG Yi,et al.Warship reliability evaluation based on dynamic bayesian networks and numerical simulation[J].Ocean engineering,2017,136(15):129-140.
[7]张长林,薛保贵,程仁德.公路突发事件应急能力评价模型研究[J].科学决策,2014(9):82-94.
[8]陈庆郴.温州港口溢油应急能力评估[D].大连:大连海事大学,2009.
[9]张晓雷.基于未确知测度的上海水域溢油应急能力评价研究[J].航海,2014(5):60-63.
[10]朱慧.重大突发事件应急演练评估方法改进研究:KPI和模糊综合评价法的结合[D].北京:首都经济师范大学,2016.
[11]高玮.宁波海域船舶污染应急能力评价[D].大连:大连海事大学,2015.
[12]曹巍.船载危化品污染事故应急能力评价体系研究[D].大连:大连海事大学,2010.
[13]陈晓南.大连新港溢油应急能力评估[D].大连:大连海事大学,2011.
[14]李群,代德军.突发事件应急演练评估方法、技术及系统研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015(7):49-54.
[15]Ramírez-Noriega A,Juárez-Ramírez R,MartínezRamírez Y.Evaluation module based on Bayesian networks to intelligent tutoring systems[J].International journal of information management,2017,37:1488-1498.
[16]葛轶,周布祥.基于超椭球贝叶斯网络的配电系统可靠性评估[J].电测与仪表,2017,54(1):22-26.