2018年中国能源产业回顾及2019年展望
|
摘要
2018年一次能源消费增速持续反弹至3.8%,各能源品种消费全面增长,增速总体呈现"煤炭回暖、石油稳增、清洁能源快速增长"的特点。能源强度继续降低,但下降速度减小。能源供给质量不断提高,能源安全风险可控,煤炭产能出清进展良好,可再生能源产业质量提升。预计2019年受国内外形势影响,宏观经济面临较大下行压力,一次能源需求增速下降至3.1%,各能源品种消费增速比2018年均有放缓;消费结构优化取得阶段性成果,以天然气和非化石能源为代表的清洁能源占比继续提升,煤炭和非化石能源占比提前完成"十三五"规划目标。各能源行业内部结构持续调整,随着油气勘探复苏、煤炭行业持续攻坚调整和非化石能源发展不断升级,能源产业向"清洁、绿色、高质量"的方向持续迈进。
The growth rate of primary energy consumption rebounded to 3.8 percent in 2018 while consumption of various energy commodities was also on the rise. Generally speaking, the growth rate of energy consumption was characterized as "coal rebounding, petroleum rising steadily and clean energy growing rapidly". Energy intensity was continually reduced, but the declining rate became slower. The quality of energy supply was continually improved while the risks for energy security were brought under control. Progress was made in adjustment of coal productivity, with the quality of renewable energy industry improved. It is estimated that the growth rate for primary energy demand will decline to 3.1 percent in 2019 owing to the influence of the situation both at home and abroad. The macro economy faces a great downward pressure. The growth rate for consumption of various energy commodities will slow down as compared to 2018. The initial results have been achieved in optimization of consumption structure. The proportion of clean energy is continually on the rise, such as natural gas and nonfossil energy. The objectives for the proportions of coal and non-fossil energy, as planned in the 13 th Five-year Plan, will be fulfilled ahead of time. The internal structure of various energy industries is continually under adjustment. With resumption of oil and gas exploration, the coal industry is continually under crucial adjustment while non-fossil energy development comes under upgradation. The energy industry is developing steadily towards "cleanness, greenness and high quality".
The growth rate of primary energy consumption rebounded to 3.8 percent in 2018 while consumption of various energy commodities was also on the rise. Generally speaking, the growth rate of energy consumption was characterized as "coal rebounding, petroleum rising steadily and clean energy growing rapidly". Energy intensity was continually reduced, but the declining rate became slower. The quality of energy supply was continually improved while the risks for energy security were brought under control. Progress was made in adjustment of coal productivity, with the quality of renewable energy industry improved. It is estimated that the growth rate for primary energy demand will decline to 3.1 percent in 2019 owing to the influence of the situation both at home and abroad. The macro economy faces a great downward pressure. The growth rate for consumption of various energy commodities will slow down as compared to 2018. The initial results have been achieved in optimization of consumption structure. The proportion of clean energy is continually on the rise, such as natural gas and nonfossil energy. The objectives for the proportions of coal and non-fossil energy, as planned in the 13 th Five-year Plan, will be fulfilled ahead of time. The internal structure of various energy industries is continually under adjustment. With resumption of oil and gas exploration, the coal industry is continually under crucial adjustment while non-fossil energy development comes under upgradation. The energy industry is developing steadily towards "cleanness, greenness and high quality".
引文
[1]EIA.International energy outlook 2017[EB/OL].https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/.
[2]BP.世界能源统计年鉴2018[EB/OL].https://www.bp.com/zh_cn/china/reports-and-publications/_bp_2018-_.html.BP.BP energy outlook 2018[EB/OL].https://www.bp.com/zh_cn/china/reports-and-publications/_bp_2018-_.html.
[3]别凡.煤炭优质产能加速释放[N].中国能源报,2018-07-09(15).Bie Fan.Accelerating release of high-quality coal productivity[N].China Energy News,2018-07-09(15).
[4]国家能源局新闻发布会介绍今年前三季度能源形势等情况[EB/OL].(2018-10-30).http://www.nea.gov.cn/xwfb/20181030zb1/index.htm.Press briefing of National Energy Bureau on energy situation in third quarter this year[EB/OL].(2018-10-30).http://www.nea.gov.cn/xwfb/20181030zb1/index.htm.
[5]国家能源局公告(2018年第10号)[EB/OL].(2018-09-26).http://zfxxgk.nea.gov.cn/auto85/201810/t20181010_3257.htm.Announcement of National Energy Bureau(No.10,2018)[EB/OL].(2018-09-26).http://zfxxgk.nea.gov.cn/auto85/201810/t20181010_3257.htm.
[6]2017年我国光伏产业运行情况[EB/OL].(2018-01-23).http://www.miit.gov.cn/n1146290/n4388791/c6031974/content.html.Operation of China’s PV industry in 2017[EB/OL].(2018-01-23).http://www.miit.gov.cn/n1146290/n4388791/c6031974/content.html.
[7]姜戎.中煤有望率先进行行业大整合11家央企或成重组重点[EB/OL].(2018-01-09).https://www.sohu.com/a/215611082_505851.Jiang Rong.China National Coal Group hopeful to lead industrial restructuring;11 SOEs may become key part of restructuring[EB/OL].(2018-01-09).https://www.sohu.com/a/215611082_505851.
[2]BP.世界能源统计年鉴2018[EB/OL].https://www.bp.com/zh_cn/china/reports-and-publications/_bp_2018-_.html.BP.BP energy outlook 2018[EB/OL].https://www.bp.com/zh_cn/china/reports-and-publications/_bp_2018-_.html.
[3]别凡.煤炭优质产能加速释放[N].中国能源报,2018-07-09(15).Bie Fan.Accelerating release of high-quality coal productivity[N].China Energy News,2018-07-09(15).
[4]国家能源局新闻发布会介绍今年前三季度能源形势等情况[EB/OL].(2018-10-30).http://www.nea.gov.cn/xwfb/20181030zb1/index.htm.Press briefing of National Energy Bureau on energy situation in third quarter this year[EB/OL].(2018-10-30).http://www.nea.gov.cn/xwfb/20181030zb1/index.htm.
[5]国家能源局公告(2018年第10号)[EB/OL].(2018-09-26).http://zfxxgk.nea.gov.cn/auto85/201810/t20181010_3257.htm.Announcement of National Energy Bureau(No.10,2018)[EB/OL].(2018-09-26).http://zfxxgk.nea.gov.cn/auto85/201810/t20181010_3257.htm.
[6]2017年我国光伏产业运行情况[EB/OL].(2018-01-23).http://www.miit.gov.cn/n1146290/n4388791/c6031974/content.html.Operation of China’s PV industry in 2017[EB/OL].(2018-01-23).http://www.miit.gov.cn/n1146290/n4388791/c6031974/content.html.
[7]姜戎.中煤有望率先进行行业大整合11家央企或成重组重点[EB/OL].(2018-01-09).https://www.sohu.com/a/215611082_505851.Jiang Rong.China National Coal Group hopeful to lead industrial restructuring;11 SOEs may become key part of restructuring[EB/OL].(2018-01-09).https://www.sohu.com/a/215611082_505851.