“中国式扶贫”可输出吗——中国对发展中国家援助及投资的减贫效应研究
|
摘要
"中国式扶贫"以政府为主导、以市场为杠杆,采用基础设施建设先行、财政补贴和开发式扶贫共同推进的模式。中国与其他发展中国家的合作减贫也具备这些特征:中国以援助和投资并举的方式推动对外减贫,基础设施建设是对外减贫的主要领域,政府和国有企业在其中发挥主导作用,同时采取多方资金参与的市场化方式推进合作开发。实证研究表明,中国援助与投资总体上有助于降低发展中国家的贫困发生率,但不同类型的援助和投资具有不同的减贫效应,"中国式扶贫"的特征要素在对外合作减贫中仍能发挥作用。尽管如此,援助和投资减贫的有效性与受援国及东道国的政府治理有效性、市场效率有关,在合作减贫过程中加强政府治理能力和市场制度建设是落后国家借鉴中国经验、实现脱贫的根本途径。
The "Chinese poverty alleviation" with the characteristics of government as the leadership,market as the lever, infrastructure construction as the guide has manifested these features in the outside world:China contributes to poverty alleviation in developing countries by the way of assistance and FDI with the main force of government and the state-owned enterprises, takes the various social financing channels as an important market-oriented way, and also takes the infrastructure construction as the major area of poverty reduction.The empirical study of 2005–2014 shows that China's assistance and FDI help to reduce poverty in developing countries, and different types of assistance and FDI generate different poverty reduction effects, OOF, commercial and mixed assistance, infrastructure, science, education and other humanities' assistance, and FDI of state-owned enterprises, engineering contracts, green land investment, infrastructure, education and healthy investment have significant poverty reduction effect, so the characteristics of "Chinese poverty alleviation" still play a important role in poverty alleviation in other developing countries. Although China's assistance and FDI can help to reduce poverty in developing countries as a whole, its effect is related to the efficiency of public system, market system and the existing infrastructure level of the recipient and host countries. The threshold regression shows that China's assistance and FDI can help other countries to improve their development level,but they are invalid for those developing countries with insufficient government governance and poor efficiency in goods market, labor market and capital market, therefore the export and implementation of "Chinese poverty alleviation" is conditional.
The "Chinese poverty alleviation" with the characteristics of government as the leadership,market as the lever, infrastructure construction as the guide has manifested these features in the outside world:China contributes to poverty alleviation in developing countries by the way of assistance and FDI with the main force of government and the state-owned enterprises, takes the various social financing channels as an important market-oriented way, and also takes the infrastructure construction as the major area of poverty reduction.The empirical study of 2005–2014 shows that China's assistance and FDI help to reduce poverty in developing countries, and different types of assistance and FDI generate different poverty reduction effects, OOF, commercial and mixed assistance, infrastructure, science, education and other humanities' assistance, and FDI of state-owned enterprises, engineering contracts, green land investment, infrastructure, education and healthy investment have significant poverty reduction effect, so the characteristics of "Chinese poverty alleviation" still play a important role in poverty alleviation in other developing countries. Although China's assistance and FDI can help to reduce poverty in developing countries as a whole, its effect is related to the efficiency of public system, market system and the existing infrastructure level of the recipient and host countries. The threshold regression shows that China's assistance and FDI can help other countries to improve their development level,but they are invalid for those developing countries with insufficient government governance and poor efficiency in goods market, labor market and capital market, therefore the export and implementation of "Chinese poverty alleviation" is conditional.
引文
[1]The World Bank.Development Goals in an Era of Demographic Change.World Bank Global Monitoring Report,Washington,D.C.,2016.
[2]United Nations.The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015.United Nations,New York,2015.
[3]张铁.分享摆脱贫困的“中国经验”.人民日报,2015-11-25.
[4]UNDP.Report on China’s Implementation of the Millennium Development Goals(2000-2015).[2018-09-10]http://www.un icef.cn/en/uploadfile/2015/0724/20150724114236419.pdf.
[5]苏春红,解垩.财政流动、转移支付及其减贫效率--基于中国农村微观数据的分析.金融研究,2015,(4).
[6]解垩.公共转移支付对再分配及贫困的影响研究.经济研究,2017,52(9).
[7]叶普万.贫困经济学研究:一个文献综述.世界经济,2005,(9).
[8]高颖,李善同.基于CGE模型对中国基础设施建设的减贫效应分析.数量经济技术经济研究,2006,(6).
[9]郭劲光,高静美.我国基础设施建设投资的减贫效果研究:1987-2006.农业经济问题,2009,30(9).
[10]郭熙保,桂立,陈志刚.四万亿投资的增长与减贫效应估算.武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2015,68(4).
[11]张秀兰,徐晓新.中国的能促型反贫困模式--反贫困三驾马车驱动体系中的中国实践.江苏社会科学,2016,(3).
[12]王建刚,包尔文,步超.制度优,中国成了全球减贫火车头.人民日报,2017-06-26.
[13]黄承伟,覃志敏.贫困地区统筹城乡发展与产业化扶贫机制创新--基于重庆市农民创业园产业化扶贫案例的分析.农业经济问题,2013,34(5).
[14]孙天琦.制度竞争、制度均衡与制度的本土化创新--商洛小额信贷扶贫模式变迁研究.经济研究,2001,(6).
[15]郭沛源,于永达.公私合作实践企业社会责任--以中国光彩事业扶贫项目为案例.管理世界,2006,(4).
[16]Sebastian E.Economic Development and the Effectiveness of Foreign Aid:A Historical Perspective.Kyklos,2015,68(3).
[17]Collier,P.,Dollar,D.Aid Allocation and Poverty Reduction.The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,2041(2),1999.
[18]Lensink,R.,White,H.Aid Allocation,Poverty Reduction and the Assessing Aid Report.Journal of International Development,2009,12(3).
[19]Ngaire W.Whose Aid?Whose Influence?China,Emerging Donors and the Silent Revolution in Development Assistance.International Affairs,2008,84(6).
[20]Dreher A.,Fuchs A.Rogue Aid?The Determinants of China’s Aid Allocation.Social Science Electronic Publishing,2011,37(1).
[21]Dreher A.,Nunnenkamp P.,Thiele R.Are New Donors Different?Comparing the Allocation of Bilateral Aid Between NonDAC and DAC Donor Countries.World Development,2011,39(11).
[22]薛澜,翁凌飞.西方对外援助机构的比较与借鉴--改革中国的对外援助模式.经济社会体制比较,2018,(1).
[23]鞠海龙,邵先成.中国-东盟减贫合作:特点及深化路径.国际问题研究,2015,(4).
[24]Banik D.China’s Aid and Poverty Reduction in Africa//Guanghua Yu.Rethinking Law and Development:The Chinese Experience.London:Routledge,2013.
[25]Dreher A.,Fuchs A.,Parks,et.al.Aid,China,and Growth:Evidence from a New Global Development Finance Dataset.Aid Data Research Lab at William&Mary Working Paper,2017,46(10).
[26]朱丹丹,黄梅波.中国对外援助能够促进受援国的经济增长吗--兼论“促贸援助”方式的有效性.中国经济问题,2018,(2).
[27]郑燕霞.中国对非直接投资的减贫效应--基于动态面板的经验研究.世界经济研究,2015,(11).
[28]张原.中国对“一带一路”援助及投资的减贫效应--“授人以鱼”还是“授人以渔”.财贸经济,2018,(12).
[29]张原.新世纪以来中国对拉美援助和投资的减贫效应研究.太平洋学报,2018,(12).
[30]范从来.益贫式增长与中国共同富裕道路的探索.经济研究,2017,52(12).
[31]张克中,冯俊诚.通货膨胀、不平等与亲贫式增长--来自中国的实证研究.管理世界,2010,(5).
[32]Sen A.评估不平等和贫困的概念性挑战.经济学(季刊),2003,2(2).
[33]Gohou,G.,Soumaré,I.Does Foreign Direct Investment Reduce Poverty in Africa and are There Regional Differences?World Development,2012,40(1).
[34]Rowntree B.Poverty:A Study of Town Life.London:Macmillan,1901.
[35]Sen A.Inequality Reexamined.Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1992.
[36]Alkire,S.,Foster,J.E.Counting and Multidimensional Poverty Measures.Journal of Public Economics,2010,95(7-8).
[37]郭熙保,周强.长期多维贫困、不平等与致贫因素.经济研究,2016,51(6).
[38]陈建奇.醒狮之困:新常态、新挑战、新战略.北京:中信出版集团,2016.
[39]金玲.“一带一路”:中国的马歇尔计划.国际问题研究,2015,(1).
[40]Hansen,B.Threshold Effects in Non-dynamic Panels:Estimation,Testing,and Inference.Journal of Econometrics,1999,93(2).
[41]Wang,Qunyong.Fixed-effect Panel Threshold Model Using Stata.The Stata Journal,2015,15(1).
(1)依据美国威廉玛丽学院“援助数据”Aid Data,中国对外投资追踪数据CGIT(The China Global Investment Tracker)计算,下文未做特殊说明的数据均来源于此。
(1)笔者界定及统计的“一带一路”概念主要指“沿线国家”,依据为国家发展改革委、外交部和商务部2015年发布的《推动共建丝绸之路经济带和21世纪海上丝绸之路的愿景与行动》基本地理路线,以及不在上述地理区域,但是已与中国签署“一带一路”合作协议的其他国(截至2017年12月)。
(1) “一带一路”倡议提出伊始就被比喻为中国版的“马歇尔计划”,将其与二战后美国在欧洲地区的援助行为进行比较,然而两者所处时代背景、合作理念、核心目标与推动国的经济实力等特征明显不同,因此存在本质区别[38](P196-201)[39](P88-99)。2014年11月,商务部颁布了中国在对外援助管理方面的第一个综合性部门规章《对外援助管理办法》,2017年2月中央深改组会议审议通过了《关于改革援外工作的实施意见》,相比对外投资而言,中国援助体系的变化较为滞后。
[2]United Nations.The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015.United Nations,New York,2015.
[3]张铁.分享摆脱贫困的“中国经验”.人民日报,2015-11-25.
[4]UNDP.Report on China’s Implementation of the Millennium Development Goals(2000-2015).[2018-09-10]http://www.un icef.cn/en/uploadfile/2015/0724/20150724114236419.pdf.
[5]苏春红,解垩.财政流动、转移支付及其减贫效率--基于中国农村微观数据的分析.金融研究,2015,(4).
[6]解垩.公共转移支付对再分配及贫困的影响研究.经济研究,2017,52(9).
[7]叶普万.贫困经济学研究:一个文献综述.世界经济,2005,(9).
[8]高颖,李善同.基于CGE模型对中国基础设施建设的减贫效应分析.数量经济技术经济研究,2006,(6).
[9]郭劲光,高静美.我国基础设施建设投资的减贫效果研究:1987-2006.农业经济问题,2009,30(9).
[10]郭熙保,桂立,陈志刚.四万亿投资的增长与减贫效应估算.武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2015,68(4).
[11]张秀兰,徐晓新.中国的能促型反贫困模式--反贫困三驾马车驱动体系中的中国实践.江苏社会科学,2016,(3).
[12]王建刚,包尔文,步超.制度优,中国成了全球减贫火车头.人民日报,2017-06-26.
[13]黄承伟,覃志敏.贫困地区统筹城乡发展与产业化扶贫机制创新--基于重庆市农民创业园产业化扶贫案例的分析.农业经济问题,2013,34(5).
[14]孙天琦.制度竞争、制度均衡与制度的本土化创新--商洛小额信贷扶贫模式变迁研究.经济研究,2001,(6).
[15]郭沛源,于永达.公私合作实践企业社会责任--以中国光彩事业扶贫项目为案例.管理世界,2006,(4).
[16]Sebastian E.Economic Development and the Effectiveness of Foreign Aid:A Historical Perspective.Kyklos,2015,68(3).
[17]Collier,P.,Dollar,D.Aid Allocation and Poverty Reduction.The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,2041(2),1999.
[18]Lensink,R.,White,H.Aid Allocation,Poverty Reduction and the Assessing Aid Report.Journal of International Development,2009,12(3).
[19]Ngaire W.Whose Aid?Whose Influence?China,Emerging Donors and the Silent Revolution in Development Assistance.International Affairs,2008,84(6).
[20]Dreher A.,Fuchs A.Rogue Aid?The Determinants of China’s Aid Allocation.Social Science Electronic Publishing,2011,37(1).
[21]Dreher A.,Nunnenkamp P.,Thiele R.Are New Donors Different?Comparing the Allocation of Bilateral Aid Between NonDAC and DAC Donor Countries.World Development,2011,39(11).
[22]薛澜,翁凌飞.西方对外援助机构的比较与借鉴--改革中国的对外援助模式.经济社会体制比较,2018,(1).
[23]鞠海龙,邵先成.中国-东盟减贫合作:特点及深化路径.国际问题研究,2015,(4).
[24]Banik D.China’s Aid and Poverty Reduction in Africa//Guanghua Yu.Rethinking Law and Development:The Chinese Experience.London:Routledge,2013.
[25]Dreher A.,Fuchs A.,Parks,et.al.Aid,China,and Growth:Evidence from a New Global Development Finance Dataset.Aid Data Research Lab at William&Mary Working Paper,2017,46(10).
[26]朱丹丹,黄梅波.中国对外援助能够促进受援国的经济增长吗--兼论“促贸援助”方式的有效性.中国经济问题,2018,(2).
[27]郑燕霞.中国对非直接投资的减贫效应--基于动态面板的经验研究.世界经济研究,2015,(11).
[28]张原.中国对“一带一路”援助及投资的减贫效应--“授人以鱼”还是“授人以渔”.财贸经济,2018,(12).
[29]张原.新世纪以来中国对拉美援助和投资的减贫效应研究.太平洋学报,2018,(12).
[30]范从来.益贫式增长与中国共同富裕道路的探索.经济研究,2017,52(12).
[31]张克中,冯俊诚.通货膨胀、不平等与亲贫式增长--来自中国的实证研究.管理世界,2010,(5).
[32]Sen A.评估不平等和贫困的概念性挑战.经济学(季刊),2003,2(2).
[33]Gohou,G.,Soumaré,I.Does Foreign Direct Investment Reduce Poverty in Africa and are There Regional Differences?World Development,2012,40(1).
[34]Rowntree B.Poverty:A Study of Town Life.London:Macmillan,1901.
[35]Sen A.Inequality Reexamined.Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1992.
[36]Alkire,S.,Foster,J.E.Counting and Multidimensional Poverty Measures.Journal of Public Economics,2010,95(7-8).
[37]郭熙保,周强.长期多维贫困、不平等与致贫因素.经济研究,2016,51(6).
[38]陈建奇.醒狮之困:新常态、新挑战、新战略.北京:中信出版集团,2016.
[39]金玲.“一带一路”:中国的马歇尔计划.国际问题研究,2015,(1).
[40]Hansen,B.Threshold Effects in Non-dynamic Panels:Estimation,Testing,and Inference.Journal of Econometrics,1999,93(2).
[41]Wang,Qunyong.Fixed-effect Panel Threshold Model Using Stata.The Stata Journal,2015,15(1).
(1)依据美国威廉玛丽学院“援助数据”Aid Data,中国对外投资追踪数据CGIT(The China Global Investment Tracker)计算,下文未做特殊说明的数据均来源于此。
(1)笔者界定及统计的“一带一路”概念主要指“沿线国家”,依据为国家发展改革委、外交部和商务部2015年发布的《推动共建丝绸之路经济带和21世纪海上丝绸之路的愿景与行动》基本地理路线,以及不在上述地理区域,但是已与中国签署“一带一路”合作协议的其他国(截至2017年12月)。
(1) “一带一路”倡议提出伊始就被比喻为中国版的“马歇尔计划”,将其与二战后美国在欧洲地区的援助行为进行比较,然而两者所处时代背景、合作理念、核心目标与推动国的经济实力等特征明显不同,因此存在本质区别[38](P196-201)[39](P88-99)。2014年11月,商务部颁布了中国在对外援助管理方面的第一个综合性部门规章《对外援助管理办法》,2017年2月中央深改组会议审议通过了《关于改革援外工作的实施意见》,相比对外投资而言,中国援助体系的变化较为滞后。