劳动力结构变化影响制造业结构升级的实证研究
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摘要
运用1996-2015年省级面板数据,构建FGLS模型,本文实证检验了劳动力结构变化对制造业结构升级的影响效应。结果表明:在劳动力年龄结构中,新生代劳动力占比上升能促进制造业结构升级,即对劳动、资本密集型制造业影响效应为负,而对技术密集型制造业影响效应为正且作用强度较大;在劳动力素质结构中,知识型劳动力占比上升对制造业结构升级具有一定推动作用,即对劳动密集型制造业影响效应为负,而对资本和技术密集型制造业影响效应为正,但作用系数较小;在劳动力性别结构中,男性劳动力占比上升阻碍了制造业结构升级,即对劳动密集型制造业影响效应为正,而对资本和技术密集型制造业影响效应都为负。最后根据实证结论,就如何顺应劳动力年龄、素质与性别结构变化顺势推进制造业结构升级,提出了相应的政策建议。
Based on the data of provincial panel subdivision industry from 1996 to 2015, this paper constructed FGLS linear regression model, and empirically tested the effect of labor structure change on the upgrading of manufacturing structure. The results show that: first, the increase of the proportion of the new labor force in the age-structure of the labor force can promote the upgrading of the manufacturing structure, and in other words, the negative effect on the labor and capital-intensive manufacturing industry, and the positive the increase of manufacturing has effect on the technology-intensive manufacturing industry and the stronger effect; Secondly, the rising proportion of knowledge-based labor force in the quality-structure of the labor force has a certain promoting effect on the upgrading of the structure of the manufacturing industry, and in other words, the influence effect on the labor-intensive manufacturing industry is negative, while the influence effect on the capital and technologyintensive manufacturing industry is positive, but the influence coefficient is small; Third, the increase of male proportion in the labor force gender-structure hinders the upgrading of the manufacturing industry structure, that is, the influence coefficient on the labor-intensive manufacturing industry is positive, while the influence coefficient on the capital and technologyintensive manufacturing industry is negative. And then, according to the results of the empirical test, on how to promote the upgrading of the manufacturing structure in line with the changes of the age-structure, quality-structure and gender-structure of the labor force, the paper makes some corresponding policy suggestions.
Based on the data of provincial panel subdivision industry from 1996 to 2015, this paper constructed FGLS linear regression model, and empirically tested the effect of labor structure change on the upgrading of manufacturing structure. The results show that: first, the increase of the proportion of the new labor force in the age-structure of the labor force can promote the upgrading of the manufacturing structure, and in other words, the negative effect on the labor and capital-intensive manufacturing industry, and the positive the increase of manufacturing has effect on the technology-intensive manufacturing industry and the stronger effect; Secondly, the rising proportion of knowledge-based labor force in the quality-structure of the labor force has a certain promoting effect on the upgrading of the structure of the manufacturing industry, and in other words, the influence effect on the labor-intensive manufacturing industry is negative, while the influence effect on the capital and technologyintensive manufacturing industry is positive, but the influence coefficient is small; Third, the increase of male proportion in the labor force gender-structure hinders the upgrading of the manufacturing industry structure, that is, the influence coefficient on the labor-intensive manufacturing industry is positive, while the influence coefficient on the capital and technologyintensive manufacturing industry is negative. And then, according to the results of the empirical test, on how to promote the upgrading of the manufacturing structure in line with the changes of the age-structure, quality-structure and gender-structure of the labor force, the paper makes some corresponding policy suggestions.
引文
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[5]阳立高,龚世豪,韩峰.新生代劳动力供给变化对制造业升级的影响研究--基于新生代劳动力供给和制造业细分行业数据的实证[J].中国软科学,2015,11:136-144.Yang L G,Gong S H,Han F.Research on the Effect of the Change in New Generation Labors Supply on Manufacturing Upgrading:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Data of the New Generation Labors Supply and Sub-sectors of Chinese Manufacturing[J].China Soft Science,2015,11:136-144.
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[11]Banister,J.,Cook,G.China’s Employment and Compensation Costs in Manufacturing[J].Monthly Labor Review,2011,57(3):39-52.
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[15]Brown,P.H.Dowry and Intra-household Bargaining:Evidence from China[J].Journal of Human Resources,2009,44(1):25-46.
[16]Bobonis,G.J.Is the Allocation of Resources within the Household Efficient?New Evidence from a Randomized Experiment[J].Journal of Political Economy,2009,117(3):453-503.
[17]Szekeres,V.Gender and Its Relevance to Economic Performance[A].International Conference on Mangement,2010:217-224.
[18]Duflo,E.Women Empowerment and Economic Development[J].Journal of Economic Literature,2012,50(4):1051-1079.
[19]魏下海,董志强,蓝嘉俊.地区性别失衡对企业劳动收入份额的影响:理论与经验研究[J].世界经济,2017,4:129-146.Wei X H,Dong Z Q,Lan J J.Does Regional Gender Imbalance Affect Labor Share of Income?Theoretical Analysis and Evidence from China[J].Journal of World Economy,2017,4:129-146.
[20]王伟同,魏胜广.员工性别结构如何影响企业生产率--对“男女搭配干活不累”的一个解释[J].财贸经济,2017,6:130-146.Wang W T,Wei S G.How Does the Gender Structure Affect Firm Productivity?[J].Finance&Trade Economics,2017,6:130-146.
[21]阳立高,龚世豪,王铂,晁自胜.人力资本、技术进步与制造业升级[J].中国软科学,2018,1:138-148.Yang L G,Gong S H,Wang B,Chao Z S.Human Capital,Technology Progress and Manufacturing Upgrading[J].China Soft Science,2018,1:138-148.
[22]阳立高,龚世豪,韩峰.劳动力供给变化对制造业结构优化的影响研究[J].财经研究,2017,2:122-134.Yang L G,Gong S H,Han F.The Effects of Labor Supply Changes on Structural Optimization of Manufacturing Industry[J].Journal of Finance and Economics,2017,2:122-134.
(1)本段数据资料来自《中国人口统计年鉴》和《中国劳动统计年鉴》,并计算和整理所得。
[2]Feyrer,J.Demograhics and Productivity[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2007,89(1):100-109.
[3]Gomez,R.,De Cos,P.H.The Importance of Being Mature:The Effect of Demographics Maturation on Global Per-Capital GDP[J].Journal of Population Economics,2008,21(2):589-608.
[4]蔡昉.人口转变、人口红利与刘易斯转折点[J].经济研究,2010,4:4-13.Cai F.Demographic Transition,Demographic Dividend,and Lewis Turning Point in China[J].Economic Research Journal,2010,4:4-13.
[5]阳立高,龚世豪,韩峰.新生代劳动力供给变化对制造业升级的影响研究--基于新生代劳动力供给和制造业细分行业数据的实证[J].中国软科学,2015,11:136-144.Yang L G,Gong S H,Han F.Research on the Effect of the Change in New Generation Labors Supply on Manufacturing Upgrading:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Data of the New Generation Labors Supply and Sub-sectors of Chinese Manufacturing[J].China Soft Science,2015,11:136-144.
[6]Mason,A.,Lee,R.,Jiang,J.X.Demographic Dividends,Human Capital,and Saving[J].Journal of the Economics of Ageing,2016(7):106-122.
[7]Cruz,M.,Ahmed,S.A.On the Impact of Demographic Change on Economic Growth and Poverty[J].World Development,2018,105:95-106.
[8]Romer,P.M.Endogenous Technical Change[J].Journal of Political Economy,1990,98(10):71-102.
[9]陈晓光.人力资本向下兼容性及其对跨国收入水平核算的意义[J].经济研究,2017,4:46-56.Chen X G.Downward Compatibility of Human Capital and its Implication for the Crosscountry Income Level Accounting[J].Economic Research Journal,2017,4:46-56.
[10]Fleisher,B.M.,Li,H.Z.,Zhao,M.Q.Human Capital,economic Growth,and Regional Inequality in China[J].Journal of Development Economics,2010,92(2):215-231.
[11]Banister,J.,Cook,G.China’s Employment and Compensation Costs in Manufacturing[J].Monthly Labor Review,2011,57(3):39-52.
[12]Autor,D.,Dorn,D.The Growth of Low Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the U.S.Labor Market[J].American Economic Review,2013,103(5):1553-1597.
[13]Angelino,A.Human Capital Shortages in the Vietnamese Industry:A Firm-level Analysis[D].Working Papers,2017.
[14]阳立高,李永奇,韩峰,龚世豪.人力资本积累影响制造业结构升级的实证研究[J].科学决策,2018,3:1-15.Yang L G,Li Y Q,Han F,Gong S H.An Empirical Study on the Impact of Human Capital Accumulation on Manufacturing Structure Upgrading[J].Scientific Decision Making,2018,3:1-15.
[15]Brown,P.H.Dowry and Intra-household Bargaining:Evidence from China[J].Journal of Human Resources,2009,44(1):25-46.
[16]Bobonis,G.J.Is the Allocation of Resources within the Household Efficient?New Evidence from a Randomized Experiment[J].Journal of Political Economy,2009,117(3):453-503.
[17]Szekeres,V.Gender and Its Relevance to Economic Performance[A].International Conference on Mangement,2010:217-224.
[18]Duflo,E.Women Empowerment and Economic Development[J].Journal of Economic Literature,2012,50(4):1051-1079.
[19]魏下海,董志强,蓝嘉俊.地区性别失衡对企业劳动收入份额的影响:理论与经验研究[J].世界经济,2017,4:129-146.Wei X H,Dong Z Q,Lan J J.Does Regional Gender Imbalance Affect Labor Share of Income?Theoretical Analysis and Evidence from China[J].Journal of World Economy,2017,4:129-146.
[20]王伟同,魏胜广.员工性别结构如何影响企业生产率--对“男女搭配干活不累”的一个解释[J].财贸经济,2017,6:130-146.Wang W T,Wei S G.How Does the Gender Structure Affect Firm Productivity?[J].Finance&Trade Economics,2017,6:130-146.
[21]阳立高,龚世豪,王铂,晁自胜.人力资本、技术进步与制造业升级[J].中国软科学,2018,1:138-148.Yang L G,Gong S H,Wang B,Chao Z S.Human Capital,Technology Progress and Manufacturing Upgrading[J].China Soft Science,2018,1:138-148.
[22]阳立高,龚世豪,韩峰.劳动力供给变化对制造业结构优化的影响研究[J].财经研究,2017,2:122-134.Yang L G,Gong S H,Han F.The Effects of Labor Supply Changes on Structural Optimization of Manufacturing Industry[J].Journal of Finance and Economics,2017,2:122-134.
(1)本段数据资料来自《中国人口统计年鉴》和《中国劳动统计年鉴》,并计算和整理所得。