大规模伤亡事件应对流程的前摄性调度优化
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摘要
以死亡人数最少化为目标,研究大规模伤亡事件应对流程的前摄性调度优化问题。首先,使用伤情等级和伤情随机转化的马尔可夫链,建立伤员死亡概率与伤员处置时间的函数关系。随后,将研究问题转化为柔性作业车间静态调度问题,并设计遗传算法求解。最后用一个随机算例对算法进行仿真,结果表明:该算法可行有效;与现有研究中救援时间最短化的调度方法相比,伴随着可接受的救援时间跨度增加,该方法可大幅降低救援过程中的死亡人数。本文研究有助于决策者优化应急救援过程,有效减少死亡人员数量。
This paper investigates proactive scheduling optimization problem of emergency response,with fatalities minimization as objective. First,triage levels and its stochastic Markov Chain are introduced,to establish function from rescued time to probability of death. Then we translate proposed problem to a proactive job shop scheduling problem,and design a genetic algorithm to find solution. Finally,a simulation experiment is done,and it shows: the algorithm works feasibly and efficiently; although makespan increases,the proposed scheduling reduces number of fatalities significantly comparing to min-makespan scheduling. The research in this paper can provide decision supports for the organization and coordination of emergency response.
This paper investigates proactive scheduling optimization problem of emergency response,with fatalities minimization as objective. First,triage levels and its stochastic Markov Chain are introduced,to establish function from rescued time to probability of death. Then we translate proposed problem to a proactive job shop scheduling problem,and design a genetic algorithm to find solution. Finally,a simulation experiment is done,and it shows: the algorithm works feasibly and efficiently; although makespan increases,the proposed scheduling reduces number of fatalities significantly comparing to min-makespan scheduling. The research in this paper can provide decision supports for the organization and coordination of emergency response.
引文
[1]王凌,李静,李幼平,徐琳.大规模伤亡事件伤员分类的系统评价[J].中国循证医学杂志,2008,7:469-476.
[2]Wikipedia.Mass-casualty incident[EB/OL].http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass-casualty_incident.
[3]何正文,贾涛,徐渝.双目标突发事件应急救援前摄性调度优化[J].运筹与管理,2012,21(1):124-130.
[4]Gülay B,Linet,Ahmet.An interactive approach for hierarchical analysis of helicopter logistics in disaster relief operations[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2002,140(1):118-133.
[5]任世科,袁治平,徐渝.突发事件应急救援动态调度优化:以KX井喷事故为例[J].运筹与管理,2012,21(3):1-7.
[6]胡信布,何正文,徐渝.基于资源约束的突发事件应急救援鲁棒性调度优化[J].运筹与管理,2013,22(2):72-79.
[7]Cabinet Office.Responding to emergencies:the UK central government response concept of operations.2010.https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/192425/CONOPs_incl_revised_chapter_24_Apr-13.pdf
[8]Carlos C.Effective patient prioritization in mass casualty incidents using hyper heuristics and the pilot method[J].OR Spectrum,2011,33:699-720.
[9]Duncan T W,Glenn I H,Graham C,Roger S C.A multi-objective combinatorial model of casualty processing in major incident response[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2013,230:643-655.
[10]Narjès B S,Tarek B M,Julie D,Bernard P,Mohamed B A.Assessing large scale emergency rescue plans:an agent based approach[J].International Journal of Intelligent Control and Systems,2006,11(4):260-271.
[11]刘爱军,杨育,邢青松,陆惠,张煜东,周振宇,吴光辉,赵小华.柔性作业车间多目标动态调度[J].计算机集成制造系统,2011,17(12):2629-2637.
[12]黄学文,马雪丽,曹德弼.工序顺序柔性的作业车间调度问题的改进遗传算法求解[J].运筹与管理,2013,22(1):65-70.
[13]Susan B,Armann I,Dawit Z.Empirical analysis of ambulance travel times:the case of calgary emergency medical services,Management Science,2010,56:716–723
[2]Wikipedia.Mass-casualty incident[EB/OL].http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass-casualty_incident.
[3]何正文,贾涛,徐渝.双目标突发事件应急救援前摄性调度优化[J].运筹与管理,2012,21(1):124-130.
[4]Gülay B,Linet,Ahmet.An interactive approach for hierarchical analysis of helicopter logistics in disaster relief operations[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2002,140(1):118-133.
[5]任世科,袁治平,徐渝.突发事件应急救援动态调度优化:以KX井喷事故为例[J].运筹与管理,2012,21(3):1-7.
[6]胡信布,何正文,徐渝.基于资源约束的突发事件应急救援鲁棒性调度优化[J].运筹与管理,2013,22(2):72-79.
[7]Cabinet Office.Responding to emergencies:the UK central government response concept of operations.2010.https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/192425/CONOPs_incl_revised_chapter_24_Apr-13.pdf
[8]Carlos C.Effective patient prioritization in mass casualty incidents using hyper heuristics and the pilot method[J].OR Spectrum,2011,33:699-720.
[9]Duncan T W,Glenn I H,Graham C,Roger S C.A multi-objective combinatorial model of casualty processing in major incident response[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2013,230:643-655.
[10]Narjès B S,Tarek B M,Julie D,Bernard P,Mohamed B A.Assessing large scale emergency rescue plans:an agent based approach[J].International Journal of Intelligent Control and Systems,2006,11(4):260-271.
[11]刘爱军,杨育,邢青松,陆惠,张煜东,周振宇,吴光辉,赵小华.柔性作业车间多目标动态调度[J].计算机集成制造系统,2011,17(12):2629-2637.
[12]黄学文,马雪丽,曹德弼.工序顺序柔性的作业车间调度问题的改进遗传算法求解[J].运筹与管理,2013,22(1):65-70.
[13]Susan B,Armann I,Dawit Z.Empirical analysis of ambulance travel times:the case of calgary emergency medical services,Management Science,2010,56:716–723