2018年秋季我国气候异常及成因分析
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摘要
2018年秋季我国气候异常特征总体表现为:气温呈"东高西低"的分布;东部降水呈"南北多、中间少"的分布,其中内蒙古中东部、东北、江南南部和华南大部地区降水异常偏多,而华北至江南北部降水异常偏少,且江南和西南地区降水出现明显的季节内反向分布转变特征。异常成因分析表明,秋季欧亚中高纬度槽脊活动频繁,冷空气活跃,西太平洋副热带高压较常年同期偏强偏西,脊线季节内南北波动较大,西南水汽输送偏强,导致我国东部降水南北多、中间少。进一步研究表明,海温异常是影响2018年秋季我国气候异常的最主要外强迫因子,季节内El Ni?o由中部型向东部型发展,热带印度洋海温偶极子正位相持续,副热带南印度洋偶极子正位相发展。秋季后期El Ni?o影响增强,东亚副热带大气环流发生明显的季节内响应。因此,ElNi?o和印度洋海温的演变及其对东亚环流的影响,加上欧亚中高纬环流异常的季节内调整,二者共同导致了我国南方地区降水出现明显的东西反向的季节内变化。
During the autumn of 2018, the surface air temperature was below normal in West China but above normal in East China. And the distribution of precipitation in eastern China was "more in the north and south,less in the middle". The precipitation was above normal in the central and eastern part of Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, the southern part of the south of the Yangtze River and South China, but below normal in the region from North China to the northern part of the south of the Yangtze River. In addition, the precipitation in the south of the Yangtze River and Southwest China showed obvious seasonal reverse distribution characteristics. By analyzing the causes for the climatic anormaly, we found that in autumn, ridge and trough activities in middle and high latitudes of Eurasia were frequent, the cold air was active, the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) was stronger and more westward than normal, the ridges of WPSH fluctuated greatly from north to south, and the southwest water vapor transport was stronger, resulting in the abnormal distribution of precipitation in eastern China. Further studies have shown that the sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) was the major extermal forcing factor for the climatic anomalies in the autumn of 2018. The El Ni?o type developed from the central Pacific type(CP) El Ni?o to the eastern Pacific type(EP) El Ni?o. The positive phase of tropical Indian Ocean dipole(TIOD)turned to the positive phase of South Indian Ocean dipole(SIOD). And there was obvious response of the East Asian subtropical atmospheric circulation to the SSTA in the Pacific and Indian Ocean in autumn.Therefore, the evolution of El Ni?o and the SST in the Indian Ocean and their influence on the East Asia atmospheric circulation, together with the seasonal adjustment of the anomalous circulation in the middle and high latitudes in Eurasia, led to the obvious east-west interseasonal changes of precipitation in southern China.
During the autumn of 2018, the surface air temperature was below normal in West China but above normal in East China. And the distribution of precipitation in eastern China was "more in the north and south,less in the middle". The precipitation was above normal in the central and eastern part of Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, the southern part of the south of the Yangtze River and South China, but below normal in the region from North China to the northern part of the south of the Yangtze River. In addition, the precipitation in the south of the Yangtze River and Southwest China showed obvious seasonal reverse distribution characteristics. By analyzing the causes for the climatic anormaly, we found that in autumn, ridge and trough activities in middle and high latitudes of Eurasia were frequent, the cold air was active, the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) was stronger and more westward than normal, the ridges of WPSH fluctuated greatly from north to south, and the southwest water vapor transport was stronger, resulting in the abnormal distribution of precipitation in eastern China. Further studies have shown that the sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) was the major extermal forcing factor for the climatic anomalies in the autumn of 2018. The El Ni?o type developed from the central Pacific type(CP) El Ni?o to the eastern Pacific type(EP) El Ni?o. The positive phase of tropical Indian Ocean dipole(TIOD)turned to the positive phase of South Indian Ocean dipole(SIOD). And there was obvious response of the East Asian subtropical atmospheric circulation to the SSTA in the Pacific and Indian Ocean in autumn.Therefore, the evolution of El Ni?o and the SST in the Indian Ocean and their influence on the East Asia atmospheric circulation, together with the seasonal adjustment of the anomalous circulation in the middle and high latitudes in Eurasia, led to the obvious east-west interseasonal changes of precipitation in southern China.
引文
白虎志,董文杰,2004.华西秋雨的气候特征及成因分析[J].高原气象,23(6):884-889. Bai H Z,Dong W J,2004. Climate features and formation causes of autumn rain over southwest China[J].Plateau Meteor,23(6):884-889(in Chinese).
鲍媛媛,阿布力米提,李峰,等,2003. 2001年华西秋雨时空分布特点及其成因分析[J].应用气象学报,14(2):215-222. Bao Y Y,Abulimiti,Li F,et al,2003. Space-time distribution and physical mechanisms of autumn rains in west China in 2001[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,14(2):215-222(in Chinese).
湛芸,施能,2003.厄尔尼诺/南方涛动与我国秋季气候异常[J].热带气象学报,19(2):137-146.Chen Y,Shi N,2003.El Nino/ENSO and climatic anomaly in the autumn of China[J]. J Trop Meteor,19(2):137-146(in Chinese).
顾薇,李维京,陈丽娟,等,2012.我国秋季降水的年际变化及与热带太平洋海温异常分布的关系[J].气候与环境研究,17(4):467-480. Gu W,Li W J,Chen L J,et al,2012. Interannual variations of autumn precipitation in China and their relations to the distribution of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature[J]. Climatic Environ Res, 17(4):467-480(in Chinese).
韩晋平,张人禾,苏京志,2013.中国北方秋雨与热带中太平洋海表冷却的关系[J].大气科学,37(5):1059-1071. Han J P,Zhang R H,Su J Z,2013. Relationship between cooling of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature and autumn precipitation in China[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,37(5):1059-1071(in Chinese).
何敏,1984.我国主要秋雨区的分布及长期预报[J].气象,10(9):10-13. He M, 1984. Distribution of the main autumn rain area in China and its long-term forecasting[J]. Meteor Mon, 10(9):10-13(in Chinese).
何珊珊,张文君,祁莉,等,2015.两类厄尔尼诺事件发展年秋季印度洋海温异常特征对比[J].气象学报,73(3):515-528. He S S,Zhang W J,Qi L,et al,2015. Contrasting SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean between the two types of El Nino events during boreal autumn[J]. Acta Meteor Sin,73(3):515-528(in Chinese).
侯威,邹旭凯,王朋岭,等,2015. 2014年中国气候概况[J].气象,41(4):480-488. Hou W,Zou X K,Wang P L,et al,2015. Climatic characteristics over China in 2014[J]. Meteor Mon,41(4):480-488(in Chinese).
贾小龙,李崇银,2005.南印度洋海温偶极子型振荡及其气候影响[J].地球物理学报,48(6):1238-1249. Jia X L,Li C Y,2005. Dipole oscillation in the southern Indian Ocean and its impacts on climate[J]. Chin J Geophys,48(6):1238-1249(in Chinese).
贾小龙,张培群,陈丽娟,等,2008. 2007年我国秋季降水异常的成因分析[J].气象,34(4):86-94.Jia X L,Zhang P Q,Chen L J,et al,2008. Causality analysis of autumn rainfall anomalies in China in 2007[J]. Meteor Mon,34(4):86-94(in Chinese).
刘佳,马振峰,杨淑群,等,2015.印度洋偶极子和华西秋雨的关系[J].高原气象,34(4):950-962. Liu J,Ma Z F,Yang S Q,et al,2015. Relationship between Indian Ocean dipole and autumn rainfall in West China[J]. Plateau Meteor, 34(4):950-962(in Chinese).
刘宣飞,袁慧珍,2006a.印度洋偶极子与中国秋季降水的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,29(5):644-649. Liu X F,Yuan H Z,2006a,Relationship between the Indian Ocean dipole and autumn rainfall in China[J]. J Nanjing Inst Meteor,29(5):644-649(in Chinese).
刘宣飞,袁慧珍,2006b. ENSO对印度洋偶极子与中国秋季降水关系的影响[J].南京气象学院学报,29(6):762-768. Liu X F, Yuan H Z,2006b. Effects of ENSO on the relationship between IOD and autumn rainfall in China[J]. J Nanjing Inst Meteor, 29(6):762-768(in Chinese).
柳龙生,高拴柱,2018. 2018年9月大气环流和天气分析[J].气象,44(12):1635-1640. Liu L S,Gao S Z,2018. Analysis of the September 2018 atmospheric circulation and weather[J]. Meteor Mon,44(12):1635-1640(in Chinese).
柳艳菊,王艳姣,司东,等,2013. 2012年秋季我国气候异常及成因分析[J].气象,39(4):526-530.Liu Y J,Wang Y J,Si D,et al,2013. Features and possible causes for the climatic anormaly in China in autumn 2012[J]. Meteor Mon,39(4):526-530(in Chinese).
聂羽,孙冷,李清泉,等,2016. 2015年秋季我国气候异常及暖湿成因分析[J].气象,42(4):507-513.Nie Y,Sun L,Li Q Q,et al,2016. Possible causes for the warmer and wetter autumn in 2015in China[J]. Meteor Mon,42(4):507-513(in Chinese).
司东,邵勰,孙冷,等,2015. 2014年秋季我国华西地区降水异常的成因分析[J].气象,41(4):508-513.Si D,Shao X,Sun L,et al,2015. Causality analysis of autumn rainfall anomalies in West China 2014[J]. Meteor Mon,41(4):508-513(in Chinese).
王朋岭,李多,柳艳菊,等,2014. 2013年秋季东北地区气候异常及成因分析[J].气象,40(4):510-514. Wang P L,Li D,Liu Y J,et al. 2014. Study on climate anomaly and possible mechanism over the Northeast China in autumn 2013[J]. Meteor Mon,40(4):510-514(in Chinese).
肖科丽,赵国令,方建刚,等,2015.陕西汛期降水年际增量预测新技术研究[J].气象,41(3):328-335. Xiao K L,Zhao G L,Fang J G,et al,2015. Study on interannual increment forecasting approach for rainy season precipitation in Shaanxi[J]. Meteor Mon,41(3):328-335(in Chinese).
晏红明,李崇银,周文,2009.南印度洋副热带偶极模在ENSO事件中的作用[J].地球物理学报,52(10):2436-2449. Yan H M,Li C Y,Zhou W,2009. Influence of subtropical dipole pattern in southern Indian Ocean on ENSO event[J]. Chin J Geophys,52(10):2436-2449(in Chinese).
袁媛,晏红明,2012.不同分布型La Nina事件及热带大气的响应特征对比[J].科学通报,57(34):3312-3322. Yuan Y,Yan H M,2013. Different types of La Nina events and different responses of the tropical atmosphere[J]. Chin Sci Bull,58(3):406-415(in Chinese).
袁媛,杨辉,李祟银,2012.不同分布型厄尔尼诺事件及对中国次年夏季降水的可能影响[J].气象学报,70(3):467-478. Yuan Y,Yang H,Li C Y,2012. Study of El Nino events of different types and their potential impact on the following summer precipitation in China[J]. Acta Meteor Sin,70(3):467-478(in Chinese).
支蓉,陈丽娟,竺夏英,2018. 2017年秋季我国北方地区降水异常偏多成因分析[J].气象,44(4):572-581. Zhi R,Chen L J,Zhu X Y,2018. Analysis of characteristics and causes of precipitation anomalies over northern China in autumn 2017[J]. Meteor Mon,44(4):572-581(in Chinese).
竺夏英,宋文玲,2017. 2016年秋季中国气候特征及其可能成因[J].气象,43(4):495-500.Zhu X Y,Song W L,2017.Features of climatic anomalies in China during the fall of 2016 and the possible causes[J]. Meteor Mon,43(4):495-500(in Chinese).
Ashok K,Behera S K,Rao S A, et al. 2007. El Nino Modoki and its possible teleconnection[J]. J Geophys Res Oceans, 112(C11):C11007.
Behera S K,Yamagata T,2001. Subtropical SST dipole events in thesouthern Indian Ocean[J]. Geophys Res Lett,28(2):327-330.
Gu W,Wang L,Li W J,et al,2015. Influence of the tropical Pacific east-west thermal contrast on the autumn precipitation in South China[J]. Int J Climatol,35(7):1543-1555.
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al, 1996. The NCEP/NCAR40-year reanalysis project[J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc,77(3):437-472.
Reason C J C,2001. Subtropical Indian Ocean SST dipole events and southern African rainfall[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 28(11):2225-2227.
Ren H L,Lu B,Wan J H,et al,2018. Identification standard for ENSO events and its application to climate monitoring and prediction[J]. J Meteor Res,32(6):923-936.
Reynolds R W,Smith T M,Liu C Y,et al,2007. Daily high-resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature[J]. J Climate,20(22):-5473-5496.
Saji N H,Goswami B N, Vinayachandran P N,et al.1999. A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean[J]. Nature,401(6751):360-363.
Weng H Y,Ashok K,Behera S K,et al,2007. Impacts of recent El Nino Modoki on dry/wet conditions in the Pacific Rim during boreal summer[J]. Climate Dyn,29(2/3):113-129.
Weng H Y,Behera S K, Yamagata T,2009. Anomalous winter climate conditions in the Pacific rim during recent El Nino Modoki and El Nino events[J]. Climate Dyn,32(5):663-674.
鲍媛媛,阿布力米提,李峰,等,2003. 2001年华西秋雨时空分布特点及其成因分析[J].应用气象学报,14(2):215-222. Bao Y Y,Abulimiti,Li F,et al,2003. Space-time distribution and physical mechanisms of autumn rains in west China in 2001[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,14(2):215-222(in Chinese).
湛芸,施能,2003.厄尔尼诺/南方涛动与我国秋季气候异常[J].热带气象学报,19(2):137-146.Chen Y,Shi N,2003.El Nino/ENSO and climatic anomaly in the autumn of China[J]. J Trop Meteor,19(2):137-146(in Chinese).
顾薇,李维京,陈丽娟,等,2012.我国秋季降水的年际变化及与热带太平洋海温异常分布的关系[J].气候与环境研究,17(4):467-480. Gu W,Li W J,Chen L J,et al,2012. Interannual variations of autumn precipitation in China and their relations to the distribution of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature[J]. Climatic Environ Res, 17(4):467-480(in Chinese).
韩晋平,张人禾,苏京志,2013.中国北方秋雨与热带中太平洋海表冷却的关系[J].大气科学,37(5):1059-1071. Han J P,Zhang R H,Su J Z,2013. Relationship between cooling of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature and autumn precipitation in China[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,37(5):1059-1071(in Chinese).
何敏,1984.我国主要秋雨区的分布及长期预报[J].气象,10(9):10-13. He M, 1984. Distribution of the main autumn rain area in China and its long-term forecasting[J]. Meteor Mon, 10(9):10-13(in Chinese).
何珊珊,张文君,祁莉,等,2015.两类厄尔尼诺事件发展年秋季印度洋海温异常特征对比[J].气象学报,73(3):515-528. He S S,Zhang W J,Qi L,et al,2015. Contrasting SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean between the two types of El Nino events during boreal autumn[J]. Acta Meteor Sin,73(3):515-528(in Chinese).
侯威,邹旭凯,王朋岭,等,2015. 2014年中国气候概况[J].气象,41(4):480-488. Hou W,Zou X K,Wang P L,et al,2015. Climatic characteristics over China in 2014[J]. Meteor Mon,41(4):480-488(in Chinese).
贾小龙,李崇银,2005.南印度洋海温偶极子型振荡及其气候影响[J].地球物理学报,48(6):1238-1249. Jia X L,Li C Y,2005. Dipole oscillation in the southern Indian Ocean and its impacts on climate[J]. Chin J Geophys,48(6):1238-1249(in Chinese).
贾小龙,张培群,陈丽娟,等,2008. 2007年我国秋季降水异常的成因分析[J].气象,34(4):86-94.Jia X L,Zhang P Q,Chen L J,et al,2008. Causality analysis of autumn rainfall anomalies in China in 2007[J]. Meteor Mon,34(4):86-94(in Chinese).
刘佳,马振峰,杨淑群,等,2015.印度洋偶极子和华西秋雨的关系[J].高原气象,34(4):950-962. Liu J,Ma Z F,Yang S Q,et al,2015. Relationship between Indian Ocean dipole and autumn rainfall in West China[J]. Plateau Meteor, 34(4):950-962(in Chinese).
刘宣飞,袁慧珍,2006a.印度洋偶极子与中国秋季降水的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,29(5):644-649. Liu X F,Yuan H Z,2006a,Relationship between the Indian Ocean dipole and autumn rainfall in China[J]. J Nanjing Inst Meteor,29(5):644-649(in Chinese).
刘宣飞,袁慧珍,2006b. ENSO对印度洋偶极子与中国秋季降水关系的影响[J].南京气象学院学报,29(6):762-768. Liu X F, Yuan H Z,2006b. Effects of ENSO on the relationship between IOD and autumn rainfall in China[J]. J Nanjing Inst Meteor, 29(6):762-768(in Chinese).
柳龙生,高拴柱,2018. 2018年9月大气环流和天气分析[J].气象,44(12):1635-1640. Liu L S,Gao S Z,2018. Analysis of the September 2018 atmospheric circulation and weather[J]. Meteor Mon,44(12):1635-1640(in Chinese).
柳艳菊,王艳姣,司东,等,2013. 2012年秋季我国气候异常及成因分析[J].气象,39(4):526-530.Liu Y J,Wang Y J,Si D,et al,2013. Features and possible causes for the climatic anormaly in China in autumn 2012[J]. Meteor Mon,39(4):526-530(in Chinese).
聂羽,孙冷,李清泉,等,2016. 2015年秋季我国气候异常及暖湿成因分析[J].气象,42(4):507-513.Nie Y,Sun L,Li Q Q,et al,2016. Possible causes for the warmer and wetter autumn in 2015in China[J]. Meteor Mon,42(4):507-513(in Chinese).
司东,邵勰,孙冷,等,2015. 2014年秋季我国华西地区降水异常的成因分析[J].气象,41(4):508-513.Si D,Shao X,Sun L,et al,2015. Causality analysis of autumn rainfall anomalies in West China 2014[J]. Meteor Mon,41(4):508-513(in Chinese).
王朋岭,李多,柳艳菊,等,2014. 2013年秋季东北地区气候异常及成因分析[J].气象,40(4):510-514. Wang P L,Li D,Liu Y J,et al. 2014. Study on climate anomaly and possible mechanism over the Northeast China in autumn 2013[J]. Meteor Mon,40(4):510-514(in Chinese).
肖科丽,赵国令,方建刚,等,2015.陕西汛期降水年际增量预测新技术研究[J].气象,41(3):328-335. Xiao K L,Zhao G L,Fang J G,et al,2015. Study on interannual increment forecasting approach for rainy season precipitation in Shaanxi[J]. Meteor Mon,41(3):328-335(in Chinese).
晏红明,李崇银,周文,2009.南印度洋副热带偶极模在ENSO事件中的作用[J].地球物理学报,52(10):2436-2449. Yan H M,Li C Y,Zhou W,2009. Influence of subtropical dipole pattern in southern Indian Ocean on ENSO event[J]. Chin J Geophys,52(10):2436-2449(in Chinese).
袁媛,晏红明,2012.不同分布型La Nina事件及热带大气的响应特征对比[J].科学通报,57(34):3312-3322. Yuan Y,Yan H M,2013. Different types of La Nina events and different responses of the tropical atmosphere[J]. Chin Sci Bull,58(3):406-415(in Chinese).
袁媛,杨辉,李祟银,2012.不同分布型厄尔尼诺事件及对中国次年夏季降水的可能影响[J].气象学报,70(3):467-478. Yuan Y,Yang H,Li C Y,2012. Study of El Nino events of different types and their potential impact on the following summer precipitation in China[J]. Acta Meteor Sin,70(3):467-478(in Chinese).
支蓉,陈丽娟,竺夏英,2018. 2017年秋季我国北方地区降水异常偏多成因分析[J].气象,44(4):572-581. Zhi R,Chen L J,Zhu X Y,2018. Analysis of characteristics and causes of precipitation anomalies over northern China in autumn 2017[J]. Meteor Mon,44(4):572-581(in Chinese).
竺夏英,宋文玲,2017. 2016年秋季中国气候特征及其可能成因[J].气象,43(4):495-500.Zhu X Y,Song W L,2017.Features of climatic anomalies in China during the fall of 2016 and the possible causes[J]. Meteor Mon,43(4):495-500(in Chinese).
Ashok K,Behera S K,Rao S A, et al. 2007. El Nino Modoki and its possible teleconnection[J]. J Geophys Res Oceans, 112(C11):C11007.
Behera S K,Yamagata T,2001. Subtropical SST dipole events in thesouthern Indian Ocean[J]. Geophys Res Lett,28(2):327-330.
Gu W,Wang L,Li W J,et al,2015. Influence of the tropical Pacific east-west thermal contrast on the autumn precipitation in South China[J]. Int J Climatol,35(7):1543-1555.
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al, 1996. The NCEP/NCAR40-year reanalysis project[J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc,77(3):437-472.
Reason C J C,2001. Subtropical Indian Ocean SST dipole events and southern African rainfall[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 28(11):2225-2227.
Ren H L,Lu B,Wan J H,et al,2018. Identification standard for ENSO events and its application to climate monitoring and prediction[J]. J Meteor Res,32(6):923-936.
Reynolds R W,Smith T M,Liu C Y,et al,2007. Daily high-resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature[J]. J Climate,20(22):-5473-5496.
Saji N H,Goswami B N, Vinayachandran P N,et al.1999. A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean[J]. Nature,401(6751):360-363.
Weng H Y,Ashok K,Behera S K,et al,2007. Impacts of recent El Nino Modoki on dry/wet conditions in the Pacific Rim during boreal summer[J]. Climate Dyn,29(2/3):113-129.
Weng H Y,Behera S K, Yamagata T,2009. Anomalous winter climate conditions in the Pacific rim during recent El Nino Modoki and El Nino events[J]. Climate Dyn,32(5):663-674.