基于最优化线抽样法的XAPR自然循环功能失效研究与分析
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摘要
针对多维不确定性参数、小失效概率的功能可靠性分析,提出了一种优化线抽样的可靠性分析方法。该方法采用遗传算法求解约束条件的优化模型来寻求最优化重要方向,进而得到失效概率的高效估计。以西安脉冲堆(XAPR)自然循环冷却堆芯能力的可靠性评价为例,考虑模型与输入参数的不确定性,对中破口失水事故下的自然循环功能失效概率进行了量化分析。结果表明:与其他概率评估方法相比,本文方法具有很高的计算效率,同时又能保证很好的计算精度;对隐式非线性的功能可靠性分析是有效可行的,具有很强的适应性。
In order to solve the problem of multi-dimensional uncertainties and small functional failure probability in passive system reliability analysis, an optimized line sampling method was presented. In the presented method, genetic algorithm was employed to solve the nonlinear constrained minimization problem for identifying the optimal important direction of line sampling, and then the failure probability could be evaluated by line sampling with high efficiency. Taking the reliability estimation on the capacity of natural circulation cooling in reactor core of Xi'an Pulsed Reactor for example, the uncertainties related to the model and the input parameters were considered in this paper. Natural circulation functional failure probability was calculated under loss of coolant accident. The numerical results show that the presented method has the high computing efficiency and excellent computing accuracy compared with traditional probability analysis methods. In addition, this method demonstrates the efficiency and feasibility for functional reliability analysis of implicit nonlinear limit state function with high dimensional variables and small failure probability.
In order to solve the problem of multi-dimensional uncertainties and small functional failure probability in passive system reliability analysis, an optimized line sampling method was presented. In the presented method, genetic algorithm was employed to solve the nonlinear constrained minimization problem for identifying the optimal important direction of line sampling, and then the failure probability could be evaluated by line sampling with high efficiency. Taking the reliability estimation on the capacity of natural circulation cooling in reactor core of Xi'an Pulsed Reactor for example, the uncertainties related to the model and the input parameters were considered in this paper. Natural circulation functional failure probability was calculated under loss of coolant accident. The numerical results show that the presented method has the high computing efficiency and excellent computing accuracy compared with traditional probability analysis methods. In addition, this method demonstrates the efficiency and feasibility for functional reliability analysis of implicit nonlinear limit state function with high dimensional variables and small failure probability.
引文
[1] WANG B S, WANG D Q, JIANG J, et al. Efficient functional reliability estimation for a passive residual heat removal system with subset simulation based on importance sampling[J]. Progress in Nuclear Energy, 2015, 78: 36-46.
[2] BURGAZZI L. Evaluation of uncertainties related to passive systems performance[J]. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 2004, 230(1-3): 93-106.
[3] METHEWS T S, ARUL A J, PARTHASARATHY U, et al. Passive system reliability analysis using response conditioning method with an application to failure frequency estimation of decay heat removal of PFBR[J]. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 2011, 241(6): 2 257-2 270.
[4] BURGAZZI L. Reliability prediction of passive systems with multiple degradation measures[J]. Nuclear Technology, 2011, 173(2): 151-161.
[5] ZIO E, PEDRONI N. How to effectively compute the reliability of a thermal-hydraulic passive system[J]. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 2011, 241(1): 310-327.
[6] 王冬青,王宝生,姜晶,等. 基于子集模拟抽样法非能动系统功能故障概率评估[J]. 原子能科学技术,2012,46(1):43-50. WANG Dongqing, WANG Baosheng, JIANG Jing, et al. Estimation of functional failure probability of passive systems based on subset simulation method[J]. Atomic Energy Science and Technology, 2012, 46(1): 43-50(in Chinese).
[7] 王宝生,王冬青,姜晶,等. 基于自适应重要抽样法非能动系统功能故障概率评估[J]. 核动力工程,2012,33(2):30-36. WANG Baosheng, WANG Dongqing, JIANG Jing, et al. Estimation of functional failure probability of passive systems based on adaptive importance sampling method[J]. Nuclear Power Engineering, 2012, 33(2): 30-36(in Chinese).
[8] WANG B S, WAND D Q, JIANG J, et al. Efficient estimation of the functional reliability of a passive system by means of an improved importance sampling method[J]. Annals of Nuclear Energy, 2013, 55(3): 9-17.
[9] JAFARI J, D’AURIA F, KAZEMINEJAD H, et al. Reliability evaluation of a natural circulation system[J]. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 2003, 224(1): 79-104.
[10] MARQUES M, PIGNATEL J F, SAIGNES P, et al. Methodology for the reliability evaluation of a passive system and its integration into a probabilistic safety assessment[J]. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 2005, 235(24): 2 612-2 631.
[11] NAYAK A K, JAIN V, GARTIA M R, et al. Reliability assessment of passive isolation condenser system of AHWR using APSRA methodology[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2009, 94(6): 1 064-1 075.
[12] SONG S F, LU Z Z, ZHANG W W, et al. The CDF and its sensitivity analysis of stochastic structure with stochastic excitation by advanced stratified line sampling[J]. Science Physics Mechanics & Astronomy, 2013, 56(8): 1 559-1 567.
[2] BURGAZZI L. Evaluation of uncertainties related to passive systems performance[J]. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 2004, 230(1-3): 93-106.
[3] METHEWS T S, ARUL A J, PARTHASARATHY U, et al. Passive system reliability analysis using response conditioning method with an application to failure frequency estimation of decay heat removal of PFBR[J]. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 2011, 241(6): 2 257-2 270.
[4] BURGAZZI L. Reliability prediction of passive systems with multiple degradation measures[J]. Nuclear Technology, 2011, 173(2): 151-161.
[5] ZIO E, PEDRONI N. How to effectively compute the reliability of a thermal-hydraulic passive system[J]. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 2011, 241(1): 310-327.
[6] 王冬青,王宝生,姜晶,等. 基于子集模拟抽样法非能动系统功能故障概率评估[J]. 原子能科学技术,2012,46(1):43-50. WANG Dongqing, WANG Baosheng, JIANG Jing, et al. Estimation of functional failure probability of passive systems based on subset simulation method[J]. Atomic Energy Science and Technology, 2012, 46(1): 43-50(in Chinese).
[7] 王宝生,王冬青,姜晶,等. 基于自适应重要抽样法非能动系统功能故障概率评估[J]. 核动力工程,2012,33(2):30-36. WANG Baosheng, WANG Dongqing, JIANG Jing, et al. Estimation of functional failure probability of passive systems based on adaptive importance sampling method[J]. Nuclear Power Engineering, 2012, 33(2): 30-36(in Chinese).
[8] WANG B S, WAND D Q, JIANG J, et al. Efficient estimation of the functional reliability of a passive system by means of an improved importance sampling method[J]. Annals of Nuclear Energy, 2013, 55(3): 9-17.
[9] JAFARI J, D’AURIA F, KAZEMINEJAD H, et al. Reliability evaluation of a natural circulation system[J]. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 2003, 224(1): 79-104.
[10] MARQUES M, PIGNATEL J F, SAIGNES P, et al. Methodology for the reliability evaluation of a passive system and its integration into a probabilistic safety assessment[J]. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 2005, 235(24): 2 612-2 631.
[11] NAYAK A K, JAIN V, GARTIA M R, et al. Reliability assessment of passive isolation condenser system of AHWR using APSRA methodology[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2009, 94(6): 1 064-1 075.
[12] SONG S F, LU Z Z, ZHANG W W, et al. The CDF and its sensitivity analysis of stochastic structure with stochastic excitation by advanced stratified line sampling[J]. Science Physics Mechanics & Astronomy, 2013, 56(8): 1 559-1 567.