农村劳动力价格上涨与劳动力转移对作物种植结构的区域性影响差异
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摘要
利用1981—2015年29省面板数据,研究了农村劳动力价格上涨与转移对全国及不同劳动力流动类型分区农业种植结构和粮食内部结构变化的影响。结果表明:在全国层面,农村劳动力价格上涨与转移均对粮食及棉花种植比例有显著负向影响,对蔬菜及油料作物种植比例有显著正向影响。在粮食作物内部,劳动力价格上涨对水稻和小麦生产具有负向影响,对玉米生产具有正向影响;劳动力非农转移促进了小麦种植比例增加,减少了水稻和玉米种植比例。在不同劳动力流动类型分区中,农村劳动力价格上涨与转移对不同区域作物种植比例的影响存在显著差异。劳动力价格上涨对3个分区的蔬菜生产具有正向影响,对粮食作物生产具有负向影响;对劳动力流入和流出区水稻生产具有负向影响,对劳动力流动持平区具有正向影响。农村劳动力转移对3个分区的蔬菜、油料作物及小麦生产具有正向影响,对玉米生产具有负向影响;对劳动力流出和流动持平区水稻生产具有负向影响,而对劳动力流入区水稻生产具有正向影响。最后,文章提出相应优化区域种植结构布局的建议。
Based on a panel data of 29 provinces from 1981 to 2015,this paper examined different reginal impacts of rural labor price increase and rural labor mitigation on crop structure in China.Results show that both of the rapid increase of rural labor price and labor migration had significant negative impacts on grain and cotton planting areas,whereas they had positive impacts on vegetable and oil-bearing crops in general.Within grain crops the rapid increase of rural labor price was negatively related to rice and wheat planting areas,but positively related to corn acreage.Among the grain crops rural labor migration helped increase the proportion of wheat area but decrease the proportion of rice and corn areas.As to the three labor floating categories,different impacts of increasing rural labor price and labor migration on crops area had been observed.The rapid increase of rural labor price imposed the following influences:positive impacts on the proportion of vegetable areas,negative impacts on the proportion of grain areas in those three classified regions and on the proportion of rice area in migration-in and migration-out regions,and positive impacts in inactive regions which had a smaller floating population.Simultaneously,agricultural labor migration imposed significant positive impacts on vegetable,oil-bearing crops and wheat in all regions and some negative impacts on corn areas.With respect to rice,labor migration had some negative impacts in migration-out and in inactive regions and some positive impacts in migration-in regions.Implications to improve the regional crop planting structure had been summarized at the end of this paper.
Based on a panel data of 29 provinces from 1981 to 2015,this paper examined different reginal impacts of rural labor price increase and rural labor mitigation on crop structure in China.Results show that both of the rapid increase of rural labor price and labor migration had significant negative impacts on grain and cotton planting areas,whereas they had positive impacts on vegetable and oil-bearing crops in general.Within grain crops the rapid increase of rural labor price was negatively related to rice and wheat planting areas,but positively related to corn acreage.Among the grain crops rural labor migration helped increase the proportion of wheat area but decrease the proportion of rice and corn areas.As to the three labor floating categories,different impacts of increasing rural labor price and labor migration on crops area had been observed.The rapid increase of rural labor price imposed the following influences:positive impacts on the proportion of vegetable areas,negative impacts on the proportion of grain areas in those three classified regions and on the proportion of rice area in migration-in and migration-out regions,and positive impacts in inactive regions which had a smaller floating population.Simultaneously,agricultural labor migration imposed significant positive impacts on vegetable,oil-bearing crops and wheat in all regions and some negative impacts on corn areas.With respect to rice,labor migration had some negative impacts in migration-out and in inactive regions and some positive impacts in migration-in regions.Implications to improve the regional crop planting structure had been summarized at the end of this paper.
引文
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[13]刘盛和,邓羽,胡章.中国流动人口地域类型的划分方法及空间分布特征[J].地理学报,2010,65(10):1187-1197.Liu S H,Deng Y,Hu Z.Research on classification methods and spatial patterns of the regional types of China's floating population[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(10):1187-1197.
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[15]朱孟珏,李芳.1985-2015年中国省际人口迁移网络特征[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(11):1368-1379.Zhu M J,Li F.Spatial characteristics of China's interprovincial migration network during 1985-2015[J].Progress in Geography,2017,36(11):1368-1379.
[16]王桂新,潘泽瀚,陆燕秋.中国省际人口迁移区域模式变化及其影响因素--基于2000和2010年人口普查资料的分析[J].中国人口科学,2012(5):2-13.Wang G X,Pan Z H,Lu Y Q.China's inter-provincial migration patterns and influential factors:Evidence from year 2000 and 2010population census of China[J].Chinese Journal of Population Science,2012(5):2-13.
[17]王英姿.中国现代农业发展要重视舒尔茨模式[J].农业经济问题,2014,35(2):41-44.Wang Y Z.China's modern agricultural development should pay attention to the Schultz model[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2014,35(2):41-44.
[18]白描,田维明.加入WTO对中国粮食安全的影响[J].中国农村观察,2011(4):35-44.Bai M,Tian W M.The impact of China's entry into WTO on China's food security[J].China Rural Survey,2011(4):35-44.
[19]田旭,张淑雯.单位面积利润变化与我国粮食种植结构调整[J],华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017,16(6):59-71.Tian X,Zhang S W.Profit change and adjustment of grain planting structure in China[J].Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition),2017,16(6):59-71.
[20]贺亚琴,冷博峰,冯中朝.基于“超越对数生产函数”对湖北省油菜生长产量的气候影响探讨[J].资源科学,2015,37(7):1465-1473.He Y Q,Leng B F,Feng Z C.The impact of climate factors on rapeseed production in Hubei by using translog production function[J].Resources Science,2015,37(7):1465-1473.
[21]杜学振.我国农业劳动力转移与农业机械化发展研究[M].北京:中国农业大学出版社,2011.Du X Z.Research on Agricultural Labor Transfer and Agricultural Mechanization Development in China[M].Beijing:China Agricultural University Press,2011.
[22]李士梅,尹希文.中国农村劳动力转移对农业全要素生产率的影响分析[J].农业技术经济,2017(9):4-13.Li S M,Yin X W.The impact of rural labor transfer on agricultural total factor productivity[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2017(9):4-13.
[23]何奇瑾,周广胜.我国玉米种植区分布的气候适宜性[J].科学通报,2012,57(4):267-275.He Q J,Zhou G S.Climatic suitability of maize planting area in China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2012,57(4):267-275.
[24]朱福守,蒋和平.中国小麦生产率的变动分析[J].广东农业科学,2015,42(18):163-168.Zhu S F,Jiang H P.Analysis on the wheat productivity in China[J].Guangdong Agricultural Sciences,2015,42(18):163-168.
[2]焦斌龙,孙晓芳.劳动力异质性及其流动--兼论我国劳动力从自发流动向自主流动转变[J].当代经济研究,2013(9):61-66.Jiao B L,Sun X F.The heterogeneity of labor force and its flow:An analysis on the trends of labor force transition from spontaneous to independent[J].Contemporary Economic Research,2013(9):61-66.
[3]黄玛兰,李晓云,游良志.农业机械与农业劳动力投入对粮食产出的影响及其替代弹性[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2018(2):37-45.Huang M L,Li X Y,You L Z.Impact of agricultural machinery and agricultural labor investment on grain production and its elasticity of substitution[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2018(2):37-45.
[4]程名望,张帅,潘烜.农村劳动力转移影响粮食产量了吗?--基于中国主产区面板数据的实证分析[J].经济与管理研究,2013(10):79-85.Cheng M W,Zhang S,Pan X.Does migration of rural labor affect the grain yield?-An empirical analysis based on panel data of main production district in China[J].Research on Economics and Management,2013(10):79-85.
[5]盖庆恩,朱喜,史清华.劳动力转移对中国农业生产的影响[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(3):1147-1170.Gai Q E,Zhu X,Shi Q H.Labor's migration and Chinese agricultural production[J].China Economic Quarterly,2014,13(3):1147-1170.
[6]李旻,赵连阁.农业劳动力“老龄化”现象及其对农业生产的影响--基于辽宁省的实证分析[J].农业经济问题,2009(10):12-18.Li M,Zhao L G.The phenomenon of “aging” of agricultural labor force and its influence on agricultural production-An empirical analysis based on Liaoning Province[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2009(10):12-18.
[7]李旻,赵连阁.农业劳动力“女性化”现象及其对农业生产的影响--基于辽宁省的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2009(5):61-69.Li M,Zhao L G.The phenomenon of “feminization” of agricultural labor force and its influence on agricultural production-An empirical analysis based on Liaoning Province[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2009(5):61-69.
[8]胡雪枝,钟甫宁.人口老龄化对种植业生产的影响--基于小麦和棉花作物分析[J].农业经济问题,2013(2):36-43,110.Hu X Z,Zhong F N.The impact of population aging on planting production:Based on the analysis of wheat and cotton[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2013(2):36-43,110.
[9]彭代彦,吴翔.中国农业技术效率与全要素生产率研究--基于农村劳动力结构变化的视角[J].经济学家,2013(9):68-76.Peng D Y,Wu X.A study on China's agricultural technology efficiency and TFP-A perspective on the changes in the structure of rural labor force[J].Economist,2013(9):68-76.
[10]成德宁,杨敏.农业劳动力结构转变对粮食生产效率的影响[J].西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2015,15(4):19-26.Cheng D N,Yang M.Research on effect of agricultural labor force structure change on food production efficiency in China[J].Journal of Northwest A&F University(Social Science Edition),2015,15(4):19-26.
[11]易福金,刘莹.劳动力价格上升与江、浙水稻播种面积相悖变化--基于替代弹性的解释[J].统计与信息论坛,2016,31(4):87-92.Yi F J,Liu Y.The paradox of rice planted area changes in Jiangsu and Zhejiang:An interpretation based on elasticity of substitution[J].Statistics&Information Forum,2016,31(4):87-92.
[12]杨进,钟甫宁,陈志钢,等.农村劳动力价格、人口结构变化对粮食种植结构的影响[J].管理世界,2016(1):78-87.Yang J,Zhong F N,Chen Z G,et al.The influence of rural labor price and population structure change on grain planting structure[J].Management World,2016(1):78-87.
[13]刘盛和,邓羽,胡章.中国流动人口地域类型的划分方法及空间分布特征[J].地理学报,2010,65(10):1187-1197.Liu S H,Deng Y,Hu Z.Research on classification methods and spatial patterns of the regional types of China's floating population[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(10):1187-1197.
[14]杨传开,宁越敏.中国省际人口迁移格局演变及其对城镇化发展的影响[J].地理研究,2015,34(8):1492-1506.Yang C K,Ning Y M.Evolution of spatial pattern of interprovincial migration and its impacts on urbanization in China[J].Geographical Research,2015,34(8):1492-1506.
[15]朱孟珏,李芳.1985-2015年中国省际人口迁移网络特征[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(11):1368-1379.Zhu M J,Li F.Spatial characteristics of China's interprovincial migration network during 1985-2015[J].Progress in Geography,2017,36(11):1368-1379.
[16]王桂新,潘泽瀚,陆燕秋.中国省际人口迁移区域模式变化及其影响因素--基于2000和2010年人口普查资料的分析[J].中国人口科学,2012(5):2-13.Wang G X,Pan Z H,Lu Y Q.China's inter-provincial migration patterns and influential factors:Evidence from year 2000 and 2010population census of China[J].Chinese Journal of Population Science,2012(5):2-13.
[17]王英姿.中国现代农业发展要重视舒尔茨模式[J].农业经济问题,2014,35(2):41-44.Wang Y Z.China's modern agricultural development should pay attention to the Schultz model[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2014,35(2):41-44.
[18]白描,田维明.加入WTO对中国粮食安全的影响[J].中国农村观察,2011(4):35-44.Bai M,Tian W M.The impact of China's entry into WTO on China's food security[J].China Rural Survey,2011(4):35-44.
[19]田旭,张淑雯.单位面积利润变化与我国粮食种植结构调整[J],华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017,16(6):59-71.Tian X,Zhang S W.Profit change and adjustment of grain planting structure in China[J].Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition),2017,16(6):59-71.
[20]贺亚琴,冷博峰,冯中朝.基于“超越对数生产函数”对湖北省油菜生长产量的气候影响探讨[J].资源科学,2015,37(7):1465-1473.He Y Q,Leng B F,Feng Z C.The impact of climate factors on rapeseed production in Hubei by using translog production function[J].Resources Science,2015,37(7):1465-1473.
[21]杜学振.我国农业劳动力转移与农业机械化发展研究[M].北京:中国农业大学出版社,2011.Du X Z.Research on Agricultural Labor Transfer and Agricultural Mechanization Development in China[M].Beijing:China Agricultural University Press,2011.
[22]李士梅,尹希文.中国农村劳动力转移对农业全要素生产率的影响分析[J].农业技术经济,2017(9):4-13.Li S M,Yin X W.The impact of rural labor transfer on agricultural total factor productivity[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2017(9):4-13.
[23]何奇瑾,周广胜.我国玉米种植区分布的气候适宜性[J].科学通报,2012,57(4):267-275.He Q J,Zhou G S.Climatic suitability of maize planting area in China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2012,57(4):267-275.
[24]朱福守,蒋和平.中国小麦生产率的变动分析[J].广东农业科学,2015,42(18):163-168.Zhu S F,Jiang H P.Analysis on the wheat productivity in China[J].Guangdong Agricultural Sciences,2015,42(18):163-168.