基于动态故障树法的深海采油树系统定量风险评估
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摘要
将动态故障树理论引入深海采油树系统的风险评估,建立动态故障树模型,并根据动态故障树Monte Carlo仿真法进行定量分析,计算顶事件故障概率以及基本事件的概率重要度和结构重要度系数,根据计算结果对深海采油树系统提出风险规避的建议。
Dynamic fault tree model is established based on dynamic fault tree theory for deep-sea Christmas tree system and quantitative analysis is achieved by Monte Carlo simulation method.Basic event importance and its structure importance coefficient,as well as failure probability of top event,are calculated.Suggestions are offered for avoiding the risk in deepsea Christmas tree system based on computing results.
Dynamic fault tree model is established based on dynamic fault tree theory for deep-sea Christmas tree system and quantitative analysis is achieved by Monte Carlo simulation method.Basic event importance and its structure importance coefficient,as well as failure probability of top event,are calculated.Suggestions are offered for avoiding the risk in deepsea Christmas tree system based on computing results.
引文
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[2]季会媛.动态故障树分析方法研究[D].长沙:国防科学技术大学,2002.
[3] PATTERSON-HINE F A,DUGAN J B.Modular techniques for dynamic fault tree-analysis[C]//Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium Proceedings,1992.
[4]李堂经,王新阁,许卓然.基于蒙特卡洛仿真的动态故障树分析[J].兵工自动化,2010,29(03):42-46.
[5]杨恒占,张可,钱富才.动态故障树顶事件发生概率的蒙特卡洛近似算法[J].西安工业大学学报,2015,35(11):893-897.
[6]周忠宝,周经伦,孙权,等.基于离散时间贝叶斯网络的动态故障树分析方法[J].西安交通大学学报,2007,41(06):732-736.
[7]骆寒冰,季红叶,刘鑫,等.基于半定量方法的深水海底管道应急维修风险评估研究[J].中国海洋平台,2016,31(05):93-100.
[8]高僮.基于动态故障树和蒙特卡洛仿真的列控系统风险分析研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2014.
[9] CHATTERJEE P.Modularization of fault trees:a method to reduce cost of analysis[J].SIAM Journal of Reliability and Fault Tree Analysis,1975:101-137.
[10] BIRNBAUM Z W,ESARY J D.Modules of coherent binary systems[J].Journal of the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics,1965,13(02):444-462.
[11] TARJAN R.Depth-first search and linear graph algorithms[J].SIAM Journal on Computing,1972,01(02):146-160.
[12] American Petroleum Institute.API-RP 581-2008:Risked-Based Inspection Technology[S].2008.
[13] EGIG.9th Report of the European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group[R].2015.
[14] DNV.Offshore Reliability Data Handbook[Z].OREDA Participants.
[15]王健.基于动态故障树的CRH2动车组制动系统可靠性分析研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2014.