基于动态权重和双枝模糊的航空四站保障安全评价
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摘要
为深入研究航空四站保障安全评价方法,在建立航空四站保障安全评价指标体系和确定指标分值的基础上,根据指标具有的动态特性和模糊性,分别引入自然权重法和变权理论,对指标权重进行计算调整,有效解决部分权值较低因素被其他因素中和而降低系统危险性的问题。然后利用可拓理论对关联性进行规整,并根据双枝模糊模型确定正负指标域对安全等级的优属度矩阵,优化和显示某些因素在评价体系中的重要性。某机场四站保障的实例验证表明,该评价结果合理准确。
In order to study the safety evaluation method of aviation four stations support,after establishing safety evaluation index system of aviation four stations support and determining the index score,the paper firstly introduces natural weight and variable weight theory to calculate and adjust the index weight according to the dynamic and fuzzy nature of the index,which can solve the problem of reducing system risk because of lower weight factors be neutralized by other factors. Then,it regulates the relevance with extension theory,and determines subordinate degree matrix of positive and negative index fields to safety level based on both-branch fuzzy model,which can optimize and reveal the importance of some factors in the evaluation system. The example of some airport four stations support proves that the evaluation result is reasonable and accurate.
In order to study the safety evaluation method of aviation four stations support,after establishing safety evaluation index system of aviation four stations support and determining the index score,the paper firstly introduces natural weight and variable weight theory to calculate and adjust the index weight according to the dynamic and fuzzy nature of the index,which can solve the problem of reducing system risk because of lower weight factors be neutralized by other factors. Then,it regulates the relevance with extension theory,and determines subordinate degree matrix of positive and negative index fields to safety level based on both-branch fuzzy model,which can optimize and reveal the importance of some factors in the evaluation system. The example of some airport four stations support proves that the evaluation result is reasonable and accurate.
引文
[1]胡连桃,周俊.四站保障学[M].北京:蓝天出版社,2014:85-87.
[2]薛明浩,端木京顺,高建国,等.基于综合指数模型的航空装备安全评价[J].工业安全与环保,2015,41(7):71-74.
[3]丁祥,郭叔伟,曹竹梅.基于BP神经网络的装备使用阶段维修保障能力评估[J].装备制造技术,2007,9(4):202-205.
[4]陈开岩,王超.矿井通风系统可靠性变权综合评价的研究[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2007,24(1):37-41.
[5]刘海波.自然权重原理及其在煤矿安全评价中的应用[D].长沙:中南大学,2006.
[6]赵金辉,钱旭,索宁.系统安全评价中权重研究[J].计算机应用研究,2011,28(8):3037-3039.
[7]潘科,石剑云.变权和相对差异函数在地铁运营安全评价中的应用[J].铁道学报,2009,30(3):20-25.
[8]刘文奇.均衡函数及其在变权综合中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1997,4(4);58-64.
[9]JIANG A h,MEI C,E J Q,et al.Nonlinear combined forecasting model based on fuzzy adaptive variable weight and its application[J].Journal of Central South University of Technology,2010,17(4):863-867.
[10]解维河,刘锋,马乐梅.双枝模糊评判在舰炮性能评估中的应用[J].指挥控制与仿真,2009,31(1):70-72.
[11]潘科,王洪德,石剑云.多级可拓评价方法在地铁运营安全评价中的应用[J].铁道学报,2011,33(5):14-19.
[12]刘保相.粗糙集对分析理论与决策模型[M].北京:科学出版社,2010:116-123.
[13]马毅,王希良,朱秀嫚.基于联系数的定量与定性分析方法在调车作业安全评价中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(6):1150-1156.
[2]薛明浩,端木京顺,高建国,等.基于综合指数模型的航空装备安全评价[J].工业安全与环保,2015,41(7):71-74.
[3]丁祥,郭叔伟,曹竹梅.基于BP神经网络的装备使用阶段维修保障能力评估[J].装备制造技术,2007,9(4):202-205.
[4]陈开岩,王超.矿井通风系统可靠性变权综合评价的研究[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2007,24(1):37-41.
[5]刘海波.自然权重原理及其在煤矿安全评价中的应用[D].长沙:中南大学,2006.
[6]赵金辉,钱旭,索宁.系统安全评价中权重研究[J].计算机应用研究,2011,28(8):3037-3039.
[7]潘科,石剑云.变权和相对差异函数在地铁运营安全评价中的应用[J].铁道学报,2009,30(3):20-25.
[8]刘文奇.均衡函数及其在变权综合中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1997,4(4);58-64.
[9]JIANG A h,MEI C,E J Q,et al.Nonlinear combined forecasting model based on fuzzy adaptive variable weight and its application[J].Journal of Central South University of Technology,2010,17(4):863-867.
[10]解维河,刘锋,马乐梅.双枝模糊评判在舰炮性能评估中的应用[J].指挥控制与仿真,2009,31(1):70-72.
[11]潘科,王洪德,石剑云.多级可拓评价方法在地铁运营安全评价中的应用[J].铁道学报,2011,33(5):14-19.
[12]刘保相.粗糙集对分析理论与决策模型[M].北京:科学出版社,2010:116-123.
[13]马毅,王希良,朱秀嫚.基于联系数的定量与定性分析方法在调车作业安全评价中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(6):1150-1156.