BT项目风险模糊综合评判理论及方法研究
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摘要
BT模式是基础设施建设领域的一种新型项目管理模式,包含诸多环节,具有较大风险。通过分析BT项目风险特点,构造了BT项目风险评价指标,建立了风险模糊综合评价模型。利用专家调查和层次分析法及相关软件确定评价指标体系各指标权重,引入群组动态权重法计算各指标的风险评分,采用模糊综合评价方法及Matlab模糊工具箱完成多级模糊综合评判。以某BT项目为例进行实证分析,结果表明,模糊综合评判理论及方法科学合理且操作性强,评价方法简单易行,评价结果较为可信。
Based on analyzing the characteristics of the BT project risk,the BT project risk evaluation system and the theory method of comprehensive evaluation were established.AHP was used to determine the weight of each index of the evaluation index system;and the group dynamic weight calculation method was introducted to calculate the risk score of each index.The Matlab fuzzy toolbox was used to complete the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.An empirical analysis of a BT project,for example,confirmed the validity of the theoretical methods and evaluation tools.The results of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation could provide some reference data when the risk decision was carrying on.
Based on analyzing the characteristics of the BT project risk,the BT project risk evaluation system and the theory method of comprehensive evaluation were established.AHP was used to determine the weight of each index of the evaluation index system;and the group dynamic weight calculation method was introducted to calculate the risk score of each index.The Matlab fuzzy toolbox was used to complete the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.An empirical analysis of a BT project,for example,confirmed the validity of the theoretical methods and evaluation tools.The results of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation could provide some reference data when the risk decision was carrying on.
引文
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[9]林晓辉.应用模糊数学方法建立新的决策评价函数并改进参数的确定方法[J].技术经济与管理研究,2007(2):22-24.
[10]张晓慧,冯英浚.一种非线性模糊综合评价模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005,25(10):54-61.
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[12]段利忠,刘思峰.灰色聚类分析评价城市创新能力[J].北京工业大学学报,2003,29(4):130-134.
[13]梁彦冰,崔雪松.Spss15.0统计分析与实践应用宝典[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,2010:36-87.
[2]万先进.BT项目风险分析[J].重庆交通学院学报,2005,24(25):23-126.
[3]尹贻林,张瑞媛.城市轨道交通BT项目回购总价风险的分担[J].武汉理工大学学报:信息与管理工程版,2012,34(2):228-232.
[4]SAATY T L.How to make a decision:the analytical hierarchy process[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1990(48):9-26.
[5]郭文明,相景丽,肖凯生.群组AHP权重系数的确定[J].华北工学院学报,2000,21(2):110-113.
[6]周晓光,张强.模糊群决策中专家意见的汇总研究[J].北京理工大学学报,2009,29(10):94-98.
[7]陈铭,李红燕,王铁宁.模糊综合评判中非线性隶属函数的确定[J].数学的实践与认识,2006,36(9):124-128.
[8]岳超源.决策理论与方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2003:32-87.
[9]林晓辉.应用模糊数学方法建立新的决策评价函数并改进参数的确定方法[J].技术经济与管理研究,2007(2):22-24.
[10]张晓慧,冯英浚.一种非线性模糊综合评价模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005,25(10):54-61.
[11]宋新山,邓伟,张琳.Matlab在环境科学中的应用[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2008:43-126.
[12]段利忠,刘思峰.灰色聚类分析评价城市创新能力[J].北京工业大学学报,2003,29(4):130-134.
[13]梁彦冰,崔雪松.Spss15.0统计分析与实践应用宝典[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,2010:36-87.