1998-2017年贵州省黔南州慢性阻塞性肺疾病死亡率变化趋势分析
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摘要
目的分析1998-2017年贵州省黔南州居民慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)死亡率及其变化趋势。方法提取贵州省黔南州居民1998-2017年COPD死因监测资料,统计贵州省黔南州居民COPD死亡率,比较不同年龄、性别间的死亡率差异,并分析其变化趋势。结果贵州省黔南州居民1998-2017年COPD死亡率为67.85/10万～31.38/10万,呈下降趋势[年度变化百分比(APC)=-5.13%,Z=-56.37,P<0.001])。标化死亡率为64.02/10万～29.39/10万,呈下降趋势(APC=-8.67%,Z=-87.38,P<0.001);1998-2017年,男性死亡率为63.42/10万～29.54/10万,呈下降趋势(APC=-4.98%,Z=-46.32,P<0.001)。女性死亡率为66.32/10万～30.68/10万,呈下降趋势(APC=-5.21%,Z=-49.72,P<0.001);男性标化死亡率为66.75/10万～16.07/10万,呈下降趋势(APC=-8.47%,Z=-61.48,P<0.001)。女性标化死亡率为64.24/10万～15.36/10万,呈下降趋势(APC=-9.72%,Z=-69.31,P<0.001);1998-2017年贵州省黔南州居民COPD死亡率随着年龄增大而逐渐升高(P<0.001),除≤35岁年龄段以外,36岁以后各年龄段COPD死亡率均呈下降趋势(P<0.001)。结论 1998-2017年期间贵州省黔南州居民COPD死亡率呈明显的下降趋势特点。应将36岁以上年龄段人群作为COPD死亡重点关注人群。
Objective To explore the mortality trends and distribution of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)among the residents with different characteristics from 1998 to 2017 in Qiannan.Methods The mortality data of COPD in Qiannan from 1998 to 2017 were collected from a mortality surveillance system.The mortality rate of COPD,differences in the rate by gender,age,and the trend over the years were analyzed.Results The crude COPD mortality rate in Qiannan decreased from 67.85/10~5 in 1998 to 31.38/10~5 in 2017(annual per cent change(APC)=-5.13%,Z=-56.37,P<0.001).The standardized mortality rate decreased from 64.02/10~5 in 1998 to 29.39/10~5 in 2017(APC=-8.67%,Z=-87.38,P<0.001).The crude COPD mortality rate of male decreased from 63.42/105 to 29.54/105(APC=-4.98%,Z=-46.32,P<0.001).The crude COPD mortality rate of female decreased from 66.32/105 to 30.68/105(APC=-5.21%,Z=-46.32,P<0.001).The standardized mortality rate of male decreased from 66.75/10~5 to 16.07/10~5(APC=-8.47%,Z=-61.48,P<0.001),and the standardized mortality rate of female decreased from 64.24/10~5 to 15.36/105(APC=-9.72%,Z=-69.31,P<0.001).The mortality rate of COPD in Qiannan increased gradually with age(P<0.001).Except for the age group ≤35 years old,the mortality of COPD in all age groups showed a downward trend at all ages after 36 years old.Conclusion The COPD mortality in Qiannan decreases from 1998 to 2017.More efforts are needed to reduce COPD mortality in Qiannan,and people over 36 years old should be the focus of attention to COPD caused death.
Objective To explore the mortality trends and distribution of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)among the residents with different characteristics from 1998 to 2017 in Qiannan.Methods The mortality data of COPD in Qiannan from 1998 to 2017 were collected from a mortality surveillance system.The mortality rate of COPD,differences in the rate by gender,age,and the trend over the years were analyzed.Results The crude COPD mortality rate in Qiannan decreased from 67.85/10~5 in 1998 to 31.38/10~5 in 2017(annual per cent change(APC)=-5.13%,Z=-56.37,P<0.001).The standardized mortality rate decreased from 64.02/10~5 in 1998 to 29.39/10~5 in 2017(APC=-8.67%,Z=-87.38,P<0.001).The crude COPD mortality rate of male decreased from 63.42/105 to 29.54/105(APC=-4.98%,Z=-46.32,P<0.001).The crude COPD mortality rate of female decreased from 66.32/105 to 30.68/105(APC=-5.21%,Z=-46.32,P<0.001).The standardized mortality rate of male decreased from 66.75/10~5 to 16.07/10~5(APC=-8.47%,Z=-61.48,P<0.001),and the standardized mortality rate of female decreased from 64.24/10~5 to 15.36/105(APC=-9.72%,Z=-69.31,P<0.001).The mortality rate of COPD in Qiannan increased gradually with age(P<0.001).Except for the age group ≤35 years old,the mortality of COPD in all age groups showed a downward trend at all ages after 36 years old.Conclusion The COPD mortality in Qiannan decreases from 1998 to 2017.More efforts are needed to reduce COPD mortality in Qiannan,and people over 36 years old should be the focus of attention to COPD caused death.
引文
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[3] 罗文婷,林艺兰.厦门市慢性阻塞性肺疾病死亡趋势分析及预测[J].疾病监测与控制,2016,10(10):783-785.
[4] 徐康,王涤,石小玲,等.2010-2015年淮安市30～69岁居民主要慢性病死亡状况及变化趋势分析[J].现代预防医学,2018,45(2):196-200.
[5] 张晓宇,侯斌,赵国栋,等.2005-2014年西安市居民慢性非传染性疾病死亡趋势分析[J].现代预防医学,2016,43(10):1890-1893.
[6] Kim HJ,Fay MP,Feuer EJ,et al.Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates[J].Statistics in medicine,2000,19(3):335-351.
[7] 王德征,王冲,沈成凤,等.Cochran-Armitage趋势检验和线性回归在流行病学率的趋势分析中的比较研究[J].中华流行病学杂志,2017,38(5):684-687.
[8] 王德征,张辉,徐忠良,等.天津市2000-2016年慢性阻塞性肺疾病死亡率变化趋势分析[J].中华预防医学杂志,2018,52(7):709-714.
[9] 史碧君,张涛,崔军,等.宁波地区慢性阻塞性肺疾病死亡率变化趋势分析[J].上海交通大学学报(医学版),2014,34(8):1260-1262.
[10] Zhou M,Wang H,Zhu J,et al.Cause-specific mortality for 240 causes in China during 1990-2013:a systematic subnational analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013[J].Lancet,2016,387(115):251-272.
[11] Yin P,Wang HD,Vos T,et al.A subnational analysis of mortality and prevalence of COPD in China from 1990 to 2013 findings from the global burden of disease study 2013[J].CHEST,2016,150(6):1269-1280.
[12] Lundb?ck B,Lindberg A,Lindstr?m M,et al.Not 15 but 50% of smokers develop COPD?——Report from the Obstructive Lung Disease in Northern Sweden Studies[J].Respiratory Medicine,2003,97(2):115-122.
[13] Hao Y,Balluz L,Strosnider H,et al.Ozone,fine particulate matter,and chronic lower respiratory disease mortality in the United States[J].American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine,2015,192(3):337-341.
[14] 曾新颖,李镒冲,刘世炜,等.1990-2015年中国四类慢性病早死概率与“健康中国2030”下降目标分析[J].中华预防医学杂志,2017,51(3):209-214.
[15] Zhong N,Wang C,Yao W,et al.Prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China:a large,population-based survey[J].American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine,2007,176(8):753-760.
[16] 殷鹏,王黎君,刘世炜,等.1990年与2010年中国15岁以上人群慢性阻塞性肺疾病的疾病负担分析[J].中华预防医学杂志,2015,49(4):334-338.