技术进步对能源行业劳动力就业的影响研究
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摘要
本文运用Malmquist指数法测算出我国能源行业1985年到2016年间的技术进步水平,并在此基础上建立VAR模型,运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法探讨了技术进步对劳动就业的影响。研究发现:第一,在样本时期内,技术进步在当年并不会对劳动力就业量产生影响,而是从第二年开始对就业量产生影响,具有时滞性、长期性和平稳性的特点;第二,技术进步在不同时期对劳动力就业的影响不同,具有挤出效应和促进效应。从短期来看,挤出效应大于促进效应,从长期来看,能源行业的技术进步会稳定促进该行业劳动力就业量的增加。
In this paper, the Malmquist index method is used to measure the technological progress of Chi-na's energy industry from 1985 to 2016. Based on this, the VAR model is established. The effects of technolog-ical progress on labor employment are discussed by using impulse response function and variance decomposi-tion. The study found that:first,During the sample period, technological progress did not affect the employment of labor in the same year, but it had an impact on the amount of employment from the second year, with the characteristics of time lag, long-term and stability.second,Technological progress has different effects on labor employment in different periods, with extrusion effect and promotion effect. In the short run, the ex-trusion effect is greater than the promotion effect. In the long run, the technological progress of the energy industry will steadily increase the employment of the labor force in the industry.
In this paper, the Malmquist index method is used to measure the technological progress of Chi-na's energy industry from 1985 to 2016. Based on this, the VAR model is established. The effects of technolog-ical progress on labor employment are discussed by using impulse response function and variance decomposi-tion. The study found that:first,During the sample period, technological progress did not affect the employment of labor in the same year, but it had an impact on the amount of employment from the second year, with the characteristics of time lag, long-term and stability.second,Technological progress has different effects on labor employment in different periods, with extrusion effect and promotion effect. In the short run, the ex-trusion effect is greater than the promotion effect. In the long run, the technological progress of the energy industry will steadily increase the employment of the labor force in the industry.
引文
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[2]C.Tourkolias,S.Mirasgedis.Quantification and monetization of empoyment benefits associated with renewable energy technologies in Greece[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2011,15:2876–2886.
[3]王琦,李桂华,孙洋等.可再生能源发展与就业潜力分析[J].可再生能源,2007(03):102-105.
[4]Chang,Y.,Hong,J.H.Do technological improvement s in the manufacturing sector raise or lower employment[J].American Economic Review,2006,96(1):352–368.
[5]任金玉.山西省技术进步与就业总量及就业结构关系研究[D].硕士学位论文,山西财经大学,2017.
[6]何静慧.经济增长、技术进步与就业的关系——以浙江省为例[J].统计与决策,2005(10).
[7]姚战琪,夏杰长.资本深化、技术进步对中国就业效应的经验分析[J].世界经济,2005(01).
[8]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952~2000[J].经济研究,2004(10):35-44.
[9]郝亚如.中国能源行业技术进步水平测算及其就业效应研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2014.
[10]胡雪萍,李丹青.技术进步就业效应的区域差异研究——基于中国东、中、西部地区的比较分析[J].上海经济研究,2015.
[11]姜金秋,杜育红.分行业技术进步对就业的动态影响研究——基于中国34个工业行业1980~2011年的数据[J].世界经济:2015,7.(7):113-121.
[12]陈泽聪.我国制造业技术进步的就业效应—基于25个行业的实证分析[J].科技进步与对策,2011(01):20-24.