产业结构调整对产业、行业劳动力需求走向的总体预测
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摘要
产业结构调整与劳动力需求间存在相互依赖、相互影响的关系。选用一阶一个变量的GM(1,1)模型对产业和行业劳动力需求进行分析和预测,得到三次产业和19个行业2015-2019年5年的劳动力需求预测值,并从数量和增长率两方面进行分析,探索产业、行业劳动力需求变化趋势,总体如下:劳动力需求总量将不断增加;第三产业就业人数持续增加并且批发和零售业、制造业、建筑业、租赁和商务服务业和住宿和餐饮业等行业将吸纳75%以上就业人口;从劳动力需求增长率看,三大产业和行业均会发生很大的变化。
The relationship between the adjustment of industrial structure and the demand of labor force is interdependent and interactive. This paper Selected GM(1, 1) model of the first order and one variable to analyze and forecast the labor demand of industry and profession, it reached the predicted value of labor demand of three industries and 19 professions in 5 years of 2015-2019, and from the analysis of the number and growth rate it explores the industry & profession demand for labor trends in general as follows: The total labor demand will continue to increase; the third industry continues to increase and the wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, construction, leasing and business services,accommodation and catering professions will absorb more than 75% of employment population; from the growth rate of labor demand the three major industries and professions will happen great changes.
The relationship between the adjustment of industrial structure and the demand of labor force is interdependent and interactive. This paper Selected GM(1, 1) model of the first order and one variable to analyze and forecast the labor demand of industry and profession, it reached the predicted value of labor demand of three industries and 19 professions in 5 years of 2015-2019, and from the analysis of the number and growth rate it explores the industry & profession demand for labor trends in general as follows: The total labor demand will continue to increase; the third industry continues to increase and the wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, construction, leasing and business services,accommodation and catering professions will absorb more than 75% of employment population; from the growth rate of labor demand the three major industries and professions will happen great changes.
引文
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[2]杨俊生,薛勇军.基于BP人工神经网络模型的东盟自由贸易区人才需求趋势预测[J].学术探索,2014(4):83-87.
[3]陈振斌,张万红,彭勃.基于Elman神经网络的江苏技术人才需求预测[J].商业现代化,2007(8):324-325.
[4]赵小松,张哲,张哂卿,等.组合模型对我国软件人才预测的应用实例[J].工业工程,2007(3):99-101.
[5]卞永峰,李恩平.基于组合预测模型的山西省转型期紧缺科技劳动力需求预测研究[J].科技管理研究,2013(21):41-45.
[6]邓聚龙.灰预测与灰决策[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2002:15-27.
[7]许馨苓.灰色动态模型及其在我国专业技术人才预测上的应用[J].科技管理研究,2010(11):192-194.
[8]徐荣,曹安照.基于灰色系统理论的科技人才需求预测[J].安徽工程科技学院学报,2006(03):71-74.