家有一老,如有一宝——老龄化背景下居住方式对子女劳动收入的影响研究
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摘要
基于2010年、2012年、2014年和2016年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,采用Heckman两阶段模型,实证检验老龄化背景下居住方式对子女劳动收入的影响。研究结果表明,与老年父母同住对子女的劳动收入有显著的负向影响,且与身体不健康、生活不能自理的老人同住会带来更大的负向影响。但同住老年父母帮助子女照管孙辈能够起到一定的积极作用,并减少与老年父母同住的负向影响。区分子女性别后发现,与老年父母同住对男性收入的负向影响高于女性,但老人隔代照料孙辈给女性收入带来的正向影响高于男性;区分地区后发现,农村地区子女收入受到居住方式影响的程度高于城镇地区,而且居住方式对子女收入的影响逐年加深。研究结果从微观个人层面客观评价了老年人口在家庭与社会中的作用,为我国克服老龄化挑战、走好积极老龄化之路提供建议。
Based on the 2010,2012,2014 and 2016 China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)data,this paper uses the Heckman two-stage model to empirically test the effect of living arrangement on children's labor income under the background of ageing. The results of the study show that living with older parents has a significant negative effect on the labor income of their children,and that living with older parents who are unhealthy or unable to take care of themselves will have a greater negative effect. However,living with older parents who can help their children take care of the grandchildren can play a positive role and reduce the negative effect of living with older parents. After distinguishing the gender of children,we find that the negative effect on the male's income is greater than that on the female's income,but the positive effect of inter-generational care on the female's income is greater than that on the male's income. After distinguishing the area,we find that living arrangement bring greater effect on income of children in urban areas. Further,we find that the effect of living arrangement on the income of children has increased year by year. The results of this paper objectively evaluate the role of the elderly population in the family and society on the micro-personal level,and provide suggestions for China to overcome the challenges of aging and walking the way to active aging.
Based on the 2010,2012,2014 and 2016 China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)data,this paper uses the Heckman two-stage model to empirically test the effect of living arrangement on children's labor income under the background of ageing. The results of the study show that living with older parents has a significant negative effect on the labor income of their children,and that living with older parents who are unhealthy or unable to take care of themselves will have a greater negative effect. However,living with older parents who can help their children take care of the grandchildren can play a positive role and reduce the negative effect of living with older parents. After distinguishing the gender of children,we find that the negative effect on the male's income is greater than that on the female's income,but the positive effect of inter-generational care on the female's income is greater than that on the male's income. After distinguishing the area,we find that living arrangement bring greater effect on income of children in urban areas. Further,we find that the effect of living arrangement on the income of children has increased year by year. The results of this paper objectively evaluate the role of the elderly population in the family and society on the micro-personal level,and provide suggestions for China to overcome the challenges of aging and walking the way to active aging.
引文
[1]蔡昉.人口转变、人口红利与刘易斯转折点[J].经济研究,2010(4):4-13.
[2]齐传钧.人口老龄化对经济增长的影响分析[J].中国人口科学,2010(S1):54-65.
[3]肖祎平,杨艳琳.人口年龄结构变化对经济增长的影响研究[J].人口研究,2017(4):33-45.
[4]蒋承,赵晓军.中国老年照料的机会成本研究[J].管理世界,2009(10):80-87.
[5]黄枫.人口老龄化视角下家庭照料与城镇女性就业关系研究[J].财经研究,2012(9):16-26.
[6]陈璐,范红丽,赵娜,褚兰兰.家庭老年照料对女性劳动就业的影响研究[J].经济研究,2016(3):169-189.
[7] Fast J E,Williamson D L,Keating N C. The Hidden Cost of Informal Elderly Care[J]. Journal of Family and Economic Issues,1999(3):301-326.
[8]原新,高瑗,李竞博.人口红利概念及对中国人口红利的再认识——聚焦于人口机会的分析[J].中国人口科学,2017(6):19-31.
[9]沈可,章元,鄢萍.中国女性劳动参与率下降的新解释:家庭结构变迁的视角[J].人口研究,2012(5):15-27.
[10] Ogawa N,Ermisch J F. Family Structure,Home Time Demands,and the Employment Patterns of Japanese Married Women[J]. Journal of Labor Economics,1996(4):677-702.
[11] Kolodinsky J,Shirey L. The Impact of Living with An Elder Parent on Adult Daughter’s Labor Supply and Hours of Work[J]. Journal of Family and Economic Issues,2000(2):149-175.
[12] Sasaki M. The Causal Effect of Family Structure on Labor Force Participation among Japanese Married Women[J]. The Journal of Human Resources,2002(2):429-440.
[13] Compton J,Pollak R A. Family Proximity,Childcare,and Women’s Labor Force Attachment[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2014(C):72-90.
[14] Wolf D A,Soldo B J. Married Women’s Allocation of Time to Employment and Care of Elderly Parents[J]. Journal of Human Resources,1994(4):1259-1276.
[15] Ettner S. The Impact of Parent Care on Female Labor Supply Decisions[J]. Demography,1995(1):63-80.
[16] Heitmueller A,Inglis K. The Earnings of Informal Carers:Wage Differentials and Opportunity Costs[J]. Journal of Health Economics,2007(4):821-841.
[17] Houtven C H V,Coe N B,Skira M M. The Effect of Informal Care on Work and Wages[J]. Journal of Health Economics,2013(1):240-252.
[18] Aassve A,Arpino B,Goisis A. Grandparenting and Mothers’Labour Force Participation:A Comparative Analysis Using the Generations and Gender Survey[J]. Demographic Research,2012(27):57-84.
[19] Arpino B,Pronzato C D,Tavares L P. The Effect of Grandparental Support on Mothers’Labour Market Participation:An Instrumental Variable Approach[J]. European Journal of Population,2014(4):369-390.
[20]卿石松,田艳芳.家庭劳动是否降低工资收入——基于CHNS的证据[J].世界经济文汇,2015(4):77-92.
[21]卢洪友,余锦亮,杜亦譞.老年父母照料家庭与成年子女劳动供给——基于CFPS微观数据的分析[J].财经研究,2017(12):4-16.
[22]刘亚飞,胡静.谁来照顾老年父母?——机会成本视角下的家庭分工[J].人口学刊,2017(5):67-76.
[23]刘靖.非农就业、母亲照料与儿童健康——来自中国乡村的证据[J].经济研究,2008(9):136-149.
[24] Carmichael F,Charles S. The Opportunity Costs of Informal Care:Dose Gender Matter?[J]. Journal of Health Economics,2003(5):781-803.
[25]陈斌开,杨依山,许伟.中国城镇居民劳动收入差距演变及其原因:1990~2005[J].经济研究,2009(12):30-42.
[26]陈皆明,陈奇.代际社会经济地位与同住安排——中国老年人居住方式分析[J].社会学研究. 2016(1):73-97.
[27]曾毅,顾大南.老年人生活质量研究的国际动态[J].中国人口科学,2002(5):59-63.
[28]杜鹏,孙鹃娟,张文娟,王雪辉.中国老年人的养老需求及家庭和社会养老资源现状——基于2014年中国老年社会追踪调查的分析[J].人口研究,2016(6):49-61.
[29]陆杰华,张莉.中国老年人的照料需求模式及其影响因素研究——基于中国老年社会追踪调查数据的验证[J].人口学刊,2018,40(2):22-33.
[30] Katz S,Downs T D,Cash H R,Grotz R C. Progress in Development of the Index of ADL[J]. Gerontologist,1970(1):20-30.
[31] Petersen T,Morgan L A. Separate and Unequal:Occupation-Establishment Sex Segregation and the Gender Wage Gap[J]. American Journal of Sociology,1995(2):329-365.
[32]吴晓刚,张卓妮.户口、职业隔离与中国城镇的收入不平等[J].中国社会科学,2014(6):118-140.
[33]杨继东,章逸然.政治身份与收入差距——基于中国社会综合调查数据的研究[J].世界经济文汇,2016(4):54-79.
[34] Pallais A. Inefficient Hiring in Entry-level Labor Markets[J]. American Economic Review,2014(11):3565-3599.
[35]陆杰华.新时代积极应对人口老龄化顶层设计的主要思路及其战略构想[J].人口研究,2018(1):21-26.
[36] Heckman J. Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error[J]. Econometrica,1979(1):153-162.
(1)数据来源:国家统计局《中华人民共和国2017年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》。
(2)数据来源:联合国World Population Prospects:The 2017 Revision。
(1)就业结构定义为:所在村居从事有偿收入者数目/劳动年龄人口数样本数,用来刻画个体所在区域的劳动力市场需求状况。
(2)我国法定劳动力起始年龄为16周岁;法定退休年龄为男性60周岁,女性工人50周岁,女性干部55周岁。同时,联合国卫生组织最新年龄分段将60岁及以上确定为老年人。
(3)CFPS提供的个人收入情况未涉及农业经营收入,但提供了个人是否从事家庭农业生产的信息,我们将家庭农业经营收入与家庭农业经营人数相除近似得到个人农业经营收入。
(1)联合国卫生组织将60~74岁人口划分为较年轻的老人,故本文定义75岁及以上为高龄老人。
(2)问卷中定义的家务劳动包括准备食物、打扫卫生、整理清洗衣服、购物等无酬家务劳动。
(1)内生性主要由两种原因导致,一是遗漏变量,例如孝顺意识强的子女会选择辞去工作,陪伴在老年父母身边居住并承担更多的家庭责任;二是反向因果,例如没有工作的子女有充足的时间照料老人,他们可能更倾向与同父母住在一起。
(2)结合中国的实际情况,夫妻婚后一般很少同妻子父母住在一起,故已婚女性中兄弟数量变量均匹配为其丈夫样本的数据。
(3)同上,已婚女性的父亲及母亲的健在情况均匹配为其丈夫样本的数据。
[2]齐传钧.人口老龄化对经济增长的影响分析[J].中国人口科学,2010(S1):54-65.
[3]肖祎平,杨艳琳.人口年龄结构变化对经济增长的影响研究[J].人口研究,2017(4):33-45.
[4]蒋承,赵晓军.中国老年照料的机会成本研究[J].管理世界,2009(10):80-87.
[5]黄枫.人口老龄化视角下家庭照料与城镇女性就业关系研究[J].财经研究,2012(9):16-26.
[6]陈璐,范红丽,赵娜,褚兰兰.家庭老年照料对女性劳动就业的影响研究[J].经济研究,2016(3):169-189.
[7] Fast J E,Williamson D L,Keating N C. The Hidden Cost of Informal Elderly Care[J]. Journal of Family and Economic Issues,1999(3):301-326.
[8]原新,高瑗,李竞博.人口红利概念及对中国人口红利的再认识——聚焦于人口机会的分析[J].中国人口科学,2017(6):19-31.
[9]沈可,章元,鄢萍.中国女性劳动参与率下降的新解释:家庭结构变迁的视角[J].人口研究,2012(5):15-27.
[10] Ogawa N,Ermisch J F. Family Structure,Home Time Demands,and the Employment Patterns of Japanese Married Women[J]. Journal of Labor Economics,1996(4):677-702.
[11] Kolodinsky J,Shirey L. The Impact of Living with An Elder Parent on Adult Daughter’s Labor Supply and Hours of Work[J]. Journal of Family and Economic Issues,2000(2):149-175.
[12] Sasaki M. The Causal Effect of Family Structure on Labor Force Participation among Japanese Married Women[J]. The Journal of Human Resources,2002(2):429-440.
[13] Compton J,Pollak R A. Family Proximity,Childcare,and Women’s Labor Force Attachment[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2014(C):72-90.
[14] Wolf D A,Soldo B J. Married Women’s Allocation of Time to Employment and Care of Elderly Parents[J]. Journal of Human Resources,1994(4):1259-1276.
[15] Ettner S. The Impact of Parent Care on Female Labor Supply Decisions[J]. Demography,1995(1):63-80.
[16] Heitmueller A,Inglis K. The Earnings of Informal Carers:Wage Differentials and Opportunity Costs[J]. Journal of Health Economics,2007(4):821-841.
[17] Houtven C H V,Coe N B,Skira M M. The Effect of Informal Care on Work and Wages[J]. Journal of Health Economics,2013(1):240-252.
[18] Aassve A,Arpino B,Goisis A. Grandparenting and Mothers’Labour Force Participation:A Comparative Analysis Using the Generations and Gender Survey[J]. Demographic Research,2012(27):57-84.
[19] Arpino B,Pronzato C D,Tavares L P. The Effect of Grandparental Support on Mothers’Labour Market Participation:An Instrumental Variable Approach[J]. European Journal of Population,2014(4):369-390.
[20]卿石松,田艳芳.家庭劳动是否降低工资收入——基于CHNS的证据[J].世界经济文汇,2015(4):77-92.
[21]卢洪友,余锦亮,杜亦譞.老年父母照料家庭与成年子女劳动供给——基于CFPS微观数据的分析[J].财经研究,2017(12):4-16.
[22]刘亚飞,胡静.谁来照顾老年父母?——机会成本视角下的家庭分工[J].人口学刊,2017(5):67-76.
[23]刘靖.非农就业、母亲照料与儿童健康——来自中国乡村的证据[J].经济研究,2008(9):136-149.
[24] Carmichael F,Charles S. The Opportunity Costs of Informal Care:Dose Gender Matter?[J]. Journal of Health Economics,2003(5):781-803.
[25]陈斌开,杨依山,许伟.中国城镇居民劳动收入差距演变及其原因:1990~2005[J].经济研究,2009(12):30-42.
[26]陈皆明,陈奇.代际社会经济地位与同住安排——中国老年人居住方式分析[J].社会学研究. 2016(1):73-97.
[27]曾毅,顾大南.老年人生活质量研究的国际动态[J].中国人口科学,2002(5):59-63.
[28]杜鹏,孙鹃娟,张文娟,王雪辉.中国老年人的养老需求及家庭和社会养老资源现状——基于2014年中国老年社会追踪调查的分析[J].人口研究,2016(6):49-61.
[29]陆杰华,张莉.中国老年人的照料需求模式及其影响因素研究——基于中国老年社会追踪调查数据的验证[J].人口学刊,2018,40(2):22-33.
[30] Katz S,Downs T D,Cash H R,Grotz R C. Progress in Development of the Index of ADL[J]. Gerontologist,1970(1):20-30.
[31] Petersen T,Morgan L A. Separate and Unequal:Occupation-Establishment Sex Segregation and the Gender Wage Gap[J]. American Journal of Sociology,1995(2):329-365.
[32]吴晓刚,张卓妮.户口、职业隔离与中国城镇的收入不平等[J].中国社会科学,2014(6):118-140.
[33]杨继东,章逸然.政治身份与收入差距——基于中国社会综合调查数据的研究[J].世界经济文汇,2016(4):54-79.
[34] Pallais A. Inefficient Hiring in Entry-level Labor Markets[J]. American Economic Review,2014(11):3565-3599.
[35]陆杰华.新时代积极应对人口老龄化顶层设计的主要思路及其战略构想[J].人口研究,2018(1):21-26.
[36] Heckman J. Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error[J]. Econometrica,1979(1):153-162.
(1)数据来源:国家统计局《中华人民共和国2017年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》。
(2)数据来源:联合国World Population Prospects:The 2017 Revision。
(1)就业结构定义为:所在村居从事有偿收入者数目/劳动年龄人口数样本数,用来刻画个体所在区域的劳动力市场需求状况。
(2)我国法定劳动力起始年龄为16周岁;法定退休年龄为男性60周岁,女性工人50周岁,女性干部55周岁。同时,联合国卫生组织最新年龄分段将60岁及以上确定为老年人。
(3)CFPS提供的个人收入情况未涉及农业经营收入,但提供了个人是否从事家庭农业生产的信息,我们将家庭农业经营收入与家庭农业经营人数相除近似得到个人农业经营收入。
(1)联合国卫生组织将60~74岁人口划分为较年轻的老人,故本文定义75岁及以上为高龄老人。
(2)问卷中定义的家务劳动包括准备食物、打扫卫生、整理清洗衣服、购物等无酬家务劳动。
(1)内生性主要由两种原因导致,一是遗漏变量,例如孝顺意识强的子女会选择辞去工作,陪伴在老年父母身边居住并承担更多的家庭责任;二是反向因果,例如没有工作的子女有充足的时间照料老人,他们可能更倾向与同父母住在一起。
(2)结合中国的实际情况,夫妻婚后一般很少同妻子父母住在一起,故已婚女性中兄弟数量变量均匹配为其丈夫样本的数据。
(3)同上,已婚女性的父亲及母亲的健在情况均匹配为其丈夫样本的数据。