钦州湾可溶性化学品泄漏预测
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摘要
【目的】随着海洋经济发展,钦州湾船舶运输量不断上升,化学品泄漏事故风险也不断增加,因此增强对化学品泄漏事故的应急模拟研究具有重要意义。【方法】应用水动力模型及其物质输运模块对钦州湾金鼓江的可溶性化学品泄漏事故进行情景模拟。【结果】水动力模型结果与实测潮位和实测潮流吻合较好。低潮时发生泄漏,化学品向北漂移,48h后影响范围覆盖金鼓江上游全部水域、保税港区沿海及其以南的外海,污染面积为42.884 0km2;高潮时发生泄漏,48h后污染面积几乎为低潮泄漏时的8倍,影响范围向南超过21°33′N,向北几乎到达茅尾海中部,对茅尾海七十二泾处的养殖以及旅游产业等造成很大的影响。【结论】化学品泄漏事故会对海洋水质环境造成很大负面影响,今后将考虑风场的作用,进一步完善广西近海可溶性化学品泄漏模拟工作,为地方经济发展和海洋环境保护提供科技支撑。
【Objective】With the development of the marine economy,the transportation volume of ships in the Qinzhou Bay continues to increase,and the risk of chemical leakage accidents also increased continuously.Therefore,it is of great significance to enhance the emergency simulation study of chemical leakage accidents.【Methods】In this paper a 2-D mike hydrodynamic model with the transport module inside are used to stimulate a hypothetical leakage accident of dissolved chemicals at one of the wharfs inside Qinzhou Bay.【Results】The simulated water level and current fit the observations well.At the time of low tide,leakage occurred and the chemicals drifted northward.After 48 h,the affected areas covered all the waters of the upper reaches of the Jingujiang River,the coasts of the bonded port areas and the outskirts of the south of the bonded port area,with an area of over 42.884 0 km2 being polluted.While the leakage occurred at high tide,48 hlater,the contaminated area was almost 8 times that of the low tide,the impact area was more than 21°33′N southwards,and it reached almost to the middle of Maowei Sea to the north.It had a great influence on the breeding and tourism industries in the 72 Jing of Mao-wei Sea.【Conclusion】Chemical spills will have a great negative impact on the marine water quality environment.In the future,the role of wind farms will be taken into account to further improve the simulated leakage of dissolved chemicals in coastal areas of Guangxi and provide scientific and technological support for local economic development and marine environmental protection.
【Objective】With the development of the marine economy,the transportation volume of ships in the Qinzhou Bay continues to increase,and the risk of chemical leakage accidents also increased continuously.Therefore,it is of great significance to enhance the emergency simulation study of chemical leakage accidents.【Methods】In this paper a 2-D mike hydrodynamic model with the transport module inside are used to stimulate a hypothetical leakage accident of dissolved chemicals at one of the wharfs inside Qinzhou Bay.【Results】The simulated water level and current fit the observations well.At the time of low tide,leakage occurred and the chemicals drifted northward.After 48 h,the affected areas covered all the waters of the upper reaches of the Jingujiang River,the coasts of the bonded port areas and the outskirts of the south of the bonded port area,with an area of over 42.884 0 km2 being polluted.While the leakage occurred at high tide,48 hlater,the contaminated area was almost 8 times that of the low tide,the impact area was more than 21°33′N southwards,and it reached almost to the middle of Maowei Sea to the north.It had a great influence on the breeding and tourism industries in the 72 Jing of Mao-wei Sea.【Conclusion】Chemical spills will have a great negative impact on the marine water quality environment.In the future,the role of wind farms will be taken into account to further improve the simulated leakage of dissolved chemicals in coastal areas of Guangxi and provide scientific and technological support for local economic development and marine environmental protection.
引文
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[2]龙颖贤,韩保新,宋巍巍.钦州湾突发性溢油的生态风险研究[C].北京:战略环境评价中的区域生态风险评价理论与方法国际研讨会论文集,2011:209-214.LONG Y X,HAN B X,SONG W W.Research on ecological risk caused by oil spill in Qinzhou Bay[C].Beijing:Proceedings of the International Symposium on Theories and Methods of Regional Ecological Risk Assessment in Strategic Environmental Assessment,2011:209-214.
[3]黄成.二维海上溢油扩散预测模型及其在广西近海的应用[D].长沙:长沙理工大学,2013.HUANG C.The forecasting model for the spread of two dimensional oil spill and its application in Guangxi offshore[D].Changsha:Changsha University of Science&Technology,2013.
[4]牙韩争,李谊纯,董德信.钦州湾海上溢油扩散数值模拟[J].广西科学,2016,23(2):156-162.YA H Z,LI Y C,DONG D X.Numerical simulation of oil spill in the Qinzhou Bay[J].Guangxi Sciences,2016,23(2):156-162.
[5]丁大星.化学品水域泄漏三维浓度场研究[D].大连:大连海事大学,2014.DING D X.Numerical simulation of 3Dconcentration field concerning chemicals leakage in waters[D].Dalian:Dalian Maritime University,2014.
[6]程锦潮.内河油类和危险化学品泄漏风险识别及应急对策[J].中国水运,2009,9(9):99-100.CHENG J C.Risk identification of oil and hazardous chemical leakage in inland river and emergency strategies[J].China Water Transport,2009,9(9):99-100.
[7]刘晓东.长江下游水域码头硫酸泄漏事故风险评价[J].水资源保护,2009,25(3):76-79.LIU X D.Risk assessment of vitriol leakage accident at wharf in downriver reach of Yangtze River[J].Water Resources Protection,2009,25(3):76-79.
[8]姜尚,吴耀建,罗阳,等.基于Delft3D模型的液体化工码头醋酸泄露风险数值模拟[J].海洋湖沼通报,2013,1:137-144.JIANG S,WU Y J,LUO Y,et al.Numerical simulation for the risk of the acetic acid leakage from liquid chemicals terminal based on Delft3D model[J].Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology,2013,1:137-144.
[9]王光明,韩龙喜,张茜,等.长江下游水溶性化学品泄漏风险预测研究[J].四川环境,2016,35(4):36-41.WANG G M,HAN L X,ZHANG X,et al.Prediction study on the leakage risk of water soluble chemical in lower reaches of Yangtze River[J].Sichuan Environment,2016,35(4):36-41.
[10]广西壮族自治区环保厅.广西壮族自治区近岸海域环境功能区划调整方案[Z].南宁:中国广西壮族自治区人民政府办公厅,2011.Department of Environment Protection of Guangxi Province.Environmental function arrangement modulation plan of Guangxi coastal area[Z].Nanning:Office of People's Government of Guangxi,2011.
[11]黄自强,张克许,昆灿,等.海水水质标准:GB 3097—1997[S].北京:环境科学出版社,2004.HUANG Z Q,ZHANG K X,KUN C,et al.Sea water quality standard:GB 3097—1997[S].Beijing:Environmental Science Press,2004.