基于“情景-应对”模式的危险化学品泄漏应急决策系统的构建
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摘要
危险化学品泄漏事故严重威胁到社会和环境安全。危化品泄漏事故发生后,快速找到泄漏源并及时采取应对措施是面临的主要任务。构建了基于一般风场的危化品泄漏事故情景库,利用Coyote实验验证了情景库在危化品泄漏事故中反演溯源的效果,据此建立了基于"情景-应对"模式的危险化学品泄漏应急决策系统,并应用于氯气泄漏事故的应急救援中。该方法具有使用方便、决策速度快、救援效率高等特点,对危化品泄漏事故的应急决策具有重要的现实意义。
Hazardous chemical leakage accidents seriously threaten social and environmental safety. The primary task is to fi nd the source of the leakage quickly and take measures to deal with it after the accident happens. The scenario library of hazardous chemical leakage accident was constructed based on general wind fi eld. The inversion effects of the scenario library for hazardous chemical leakage accident were verifi ed through the Coyote experiments. On these grounds,the emergency decision system for hazardous chemical leakage based on "scenario-response" model was established and applied for emergency rescue of chlorine leakage accidents. This method had the advantages of convenient use,fast decision-making speed and high effi ciency of rescue,and it was of great practical signifi cance for emergency decision for hazardous chemical leakage accidents.
Hazardous chemical leakage accidents seriously threaten social and environmental safety. The primary task is to fi nd the source of the leakage quickly and take measures to deal with it after the accident happens. The scenario library of hazardous chemical leakage accident was constructed based on general wind fi eld. The inversion effects of the scenario library for hazardous chemical leakage accident were verifi ed through the Coyote experiments. On these grounds,the emergency decision system for hazardous chemical leakage based on "scenario-response" model was established and applied for emergency rescue of chlorine leakage accidents. This method had the advantages of convenient use,fast decision-making speed and high effi ciency of rescue,and it was of great practical signifi cance for emergency decision for hazardous chemical leakage accidents.
引文
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[19]谭蔚,刘潇,刘玉金.危险液化气体瞬时泄漏扩散数值模拟研究进展[J].化学工程,2012,40(5):46-49.
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[22]UCI?SKI D,PATAN M.Sensor network design for the estimation of spatially distributed processes[J].Int JAppl Math Comput Sci,2010,20(3):459-481.
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[26]RODEAN H C,HOGAN W J,URTIEW P A,et al.Vapor burn analysis for the Coyote series LNG spill experiments[R/OL].(1984-04-01)[2017-12-15].https://www.osti.gov/biblio/6552758.
[2]SHANKAR RAO K.Source estimation methods for atmospheric dispersion[J].Atmos Environ,2007,41(33):6964-6973.
[3]朱江,汪萍.集合卡尔曼平滑和集合卡尔曼滤波在污染源反演中的应用[J].大气科学,2006,30(5):871-882.
[4]SOHN M D,SEXTRO R G,GADGIL A J,et al.Responding to sudden pollutant releases in office buildings:1.framework and analysis tools[J].Indoor Air,2003,13(3):267-276.
[5]郭少冬,杨锐,翁文国.基于MCMC方法的城区有毒气体扩散源反演[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2009,49(5):629-634.
[6]KEATS A,YEE E,LIEN F S.Bayesian inference for source determination with applications to a complex urban environment[J].Atmos Environ,2007,41(3):465-479.
[7]KEATS A,YEE E,LIEN F S.Efficiently characterizing the origin and decay rate of a nonconservative scalar using probability theory[J].Ecol Modell,2007,205(3/4):437-452.
[8]NEWMAN M,HATFIELD K,HAYWORTH J,et al.A hybrid method for inverse characterization of subsurface contaminant flux[J].J Contam Hydrol,2005,81(1/4):34-62.
[9]IOVINO P,SALVESTRINI S,CAPASSO S.Identification of stationary sources of air pollutants by concentration statistical analysis[J].Chemosphere,2008,73(4):614-618.
[10]YEE E,LIEN F S,KEATS A,et al.Bayesian inversion of concentration data:source reconstruction in the adjoint representation of atmospheric diffusion[J].J Wind Eng Ind Aerod,2008,96(10/11):1805-1816.
[11]LI F,NIU J L.An inverse approach for estimating the initial distribution of volatile organic compounds in dry building material[J].Atmos Environ,2005,39(8):1447-1455.
[12]HAUPT S E,BEYER-LOUT A,LONG K J,et al.Assimilating concentration observations for transport and dispersion modeling in a meandering wind field[J].Atmos Environ,2009,43(6):1329-1338.
[13]夏登友.基于“情景-应对”的非常规突发灾害事故应急决策技术研究[D].北京:北京理工大学,2015.
[14]肖磊,李仕明,李晓林.非常规突发事件管理中的“情景学习”初探[C]//中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会,中国行政管理学会.第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会论文集.北京:美国科研出版社,2009:325-328.
[15]盛勇,孙庆云,王永明.突发事件情景演化及关键要素提取方法[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(1):17-21.
[16]舒其林.非常规突发事件的情景演变及“情景-应对”决策方案生成[J].中国科学技术大学学报,2012,42(11):936-941.
[17]马文笑,王德鲁.基于案例推理的突发环境事件应急决策模型[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(12):85-90.
[18]闫洁洁,向晓东,霍艳霞.典型液氯泄漏危害的ALOHA软件估算[J].化工环保,2015,35(1):69-73.
[19]谭蔚,刘潇,刘玉金.危险液化气体瞬时泄漏扩散数值模拟研究进展[J].化学工程,2012,40(5):46-49.
[20]王森林,王骏逸,孙宝江,等.氯气泄漏扩散过程及后果评价的研究现状分析[J].化工环保,2016,36(3):332-337.
[21]贾瑜玲,牛皓,段潍超,等.精对苯二甲酸生产企业挥发性有机物泄漏检测与排放估算[J].化工环保,2017,37(5):598-602.
[22]UCI?SKI D,PATAN M.Sensor network design for the estimation of spatially distributed processes[J].Int JAppl Math Comput Sci,2010,20(3):459-481.
[23]刘铁民.重大突发事件情景规划与构建研究[J].中国应急管理,2012(4):18-23.
[24]BLACKMORE D R,HERMAN M N,WOODWARDJ L.Heavy gas dispersion models[J].J Hazard Mater,1982,6(1/2):107-128.
[25]GOLDWIRE H C,Jr,RODEAN H C,CEDERWALLR T,et al.Coyote series data report LLNL/NWC 1981LNG spill tests dispersion,vapor burn,and rapidphase-transition.Volume 1.[7 experiments with liquefied natural gas,2 with liquid methane,and one with liquid nitrogen][R/OL].(1983-10-01)[2017-12-15].https://www.osti.gov/biblio/5381934.
[26]RODEAN H C,HOGAN W J,URTIEW P A,et al.Vapor burn analysis for the Coyote series LNG spill experiments[R/OL].(1984-04-01)[2017-12-15].https://www.osti.gov/biblio/6552758.