张家港水域散装化学品泄漏事故风险及对策研究
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摘要
随着张家港辖区危化品数量的增多,预防、应对化学品泄漏事故越来越受到人们的重视。以张家港水域船载丙烯酸乙酯泄漏事故为例,研究了船舶散装化学品泄漏事故风险因素、风险程度及风险后果。采用历史资料统计分析方法研究了该江段营运船舶发生散装化学品泄漏事故的概率,为4. 46×10-3次/年。利用Chemmap数值模拟方法模拟该江段在不同径流量、风向、潮流等环境条件下发生泄漏事故后的污染物迁移轨迹。基于风险识别和评价,以及数值模拟得到的污染迁移轨迹及关注点受污染程度,从降低事故风险概率和减轻事故后果两方面提出了防范和应急措施。
As a consequence of the increase in the number of hazardous chemicals in the Zhangjiagang area,prevention and response to chemical spills have received increasing attention. The case of ethyl acrylate leakage on the Zhangjiagang section of the Yangtze River has been taken as an example in order to study the risk factors,risk levels and risk consequences of bulk chemical leakage. The probability of an accident caused by bulk chemical leakage from operating ships has been calculated by statistical analysis of historical data,and found to be 4. 46 × 10-3 times per year. A numerical simulation method was used to illustrate the trajectories of pollutants in the section of the river after a leakage accident under different environmental conditions such as runoff,wind direction,and tidal current. Based on risk identification and assessment,as well as the pollution trajectory results and concerns about the degree of pollution,preventive and emergency measures are proposed in order to reduce accident risk probability and mitigate accident consequences.
As a consequence of the increase in the number of hazardous chemicals in the Zhangjiagang area,prevention and response to chemical spills have received increasing attention. The case of ethyl acrylate leakage on the Zhangjiagang section of the Yangtze River has been taken as an example in order to study the risk factors,risk levels and risk consequences of bulk chemical leakage. The probability of an accident caused by bulk chemical leakage from operating ships has been calculated by statistical analysis of historical data,and found to be 4. 46 × 10-3 times per year. A numerical simulation method was used to illustrate the trajectories of pollutants in the section of the river after a leakage accident under different environmental conditions such as runoff,wind direction,and tidal current. Based on risk identification and assessment,as well as the pollution trajectory results and concerns about the degree of pollution,preventive and emergency measures are proposed in order to reduce accident risk probability and mitigate accident consequences.
引文
[1]毕德明.长江张家港段危化品船舶污染风险分析及防控、监管和应急体系研究[J].航海技术,2015(1):44-45.BI D M. Analysis on pollution risk and research on prevention, control, supervision and emergency response system of dangerous chemicals in the Zhangjiagang section of the Yangtze River[J]. Marine Technology,2015(1):44-45.(in Chinese)
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[8]交通运输部长江航务管理局.长江航运发展报吿[R].北京:人民交通出版社,2014.Changjiang River Administration of Navigational Affairs,MOT. Report on Changjiang shipping development[R].Beijing:China Communications Press,2014.(in Chinese)
[9]王炫.基于GIS的危险化学品泄漏事故环境风险预测与评价信息支持系统研究[D].上海:复旦大学,2009.WANG X. Research on GIS-based environmental risk prediction and evaluation information support system for hazardous chemical spill accidents[D]. Shanghai:Fudan University,2009.(in Chinese)
[10]翁芳蕾.危化品水路运输泄漏事故应急处置研究[D]杭州:浙江工业大学,2013.WENG F L. Research on emergency disposal of waterway transportation leakage accidents in dangerous chemicals[D]. Hangzhou:Zhejiang University of Technology,2013.(in Chinese)
[11] Applied Science Associates Inc.. Chemmap Technical Manual[CP]. Narragansett,2005.
[2] SPAULDING M L,KOLLURU V S,ANDERSON E,et al. Application of three-dimensional oil spill model(WOSM/OILMAP)to Hindcast the Braer spill[J]. Spill Science and Technology Bulletin,1994,1(1):23-35.
[3] AL SHAMI A,HARIK G,ALAMEDDINE I,et al. Risk assessment of oil spills along the Mediterranean coast:a sensitivity analysis of the choice of hazard quantification[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2017,574:234-245.
[4] LEE M,JUNG J. Pollution risk assessment of oil spill accidents in Garorim Bay of Korea[J]. Marine Pollution Bulletin,2015,100(1):297-303.
[5]奚风华,刘家新.油船溢油风险评价指标体系的构建及应用[J].船海工程,2010,39(1):38-40.XI F H,LIU J X. Establishment and application of the evaluation index system of the risk for tanker's oil spill[J]. Ship&Ocean Engineering,2010,39(1):38-40.(in Chinese)
[6]邹云飞,张鹏,张德文.船用溢油回收系统发展现状及前景综述[J].环境工程,2015,33(增刊):867-869,886.ZOU Y F,ZHANG P,ZHANG D W. Status and prospects of oil spill recovery system for ship[J]. Environmental Engineering,2015,33(S1):867-869,886.(in Chinese)
[7]何灵.长江危险货物运输风险评估研究[D].大连:大连海事大学,2015.HE L. Research on risk assessment of dangerous goods transportation in the Yangtze River[D]. Dalian:Dalian Maritime University,2015.(in Chinese)
[8]交通运输部长江航务管理局.长江航运发展报吿[R].北京:人民交通出版社,2014.Changjiang River Administration of Navigational Affairs,MOT. Report on Changjiang shipping development[R].Beijing:China Communications Press,2014.(in Chinese)
[9]王炫.基于GIS的危险化学品泄漏事故环境风险预测与评价信息支持系统研究[D].上海:复旦大学,2009.WANG X. Research on GIS-based environmental risk prediction and evaluation information support system for hazardous chemical spill accidents[D]. Shanghai:Fudan University,2009.(in Chinese)
[10]翁芳蕾.危化品水路运输泄漏事故应急处置研究[D]杭州:浙江工业大学,2013.WENG F L. Research on emergency disposal of waterway transportation leakage accidents in dangerous chemicals[D]. Hangzhou:Zhejiang University of Technology,2013.(in Chinese)
[11] Applied Science Associates Inc.. Chemmap Technical Manual[CP]. Narragansett,2005.