基于ECHAM5模式的21世纪冬季北大西洋涛动与北半球风暴轴的特征分析
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摘要
基于德国马普所大气模式ECHAM5的输出结果,对RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5三种情景下21世纪冬季北大西洋涛动(NAO)与冬季北半球风暴轴的变化特征进行探究。结果显示,3种情景下,NAO指数(NAOI)均表现出9-14年的周期,冬季两大洋风暴轴强度均呈增长趋势,2大风暴轴位置震荡总呈东北(西南)向。辐射较强的情景,冬季北太平洋风暴轴的平均位置越偏向亚欧大陆,冬季北大西洋风暴轴的平均面积指数越大且平均位置越偏西。合成分析结果显示,3种情景下,从NAO强年、平均态依次到弱年,2大洋风暴轴的响应不尽相同:RCP2.6情景中,北太平洋风暴轴明显远离欧亚大陆,强度和面积指数递减,而北大西洋风暴轴面积指数却显著递增;RCP4.5情景中,北半球两大洋上风暴轴面积均逐渐增大,北大西洋风暴轴逐渐靠近美洲大陆,强度也加强;RCP8.5中,冬季北太平洋风暴轴面积指数增大,位置远离亚欧大陆,强度增强,北大西洋风暴轴强度显著递增。
Based on the output of atmospheric model ECHAM5,the characteristics in the future 21 st st century winter north Atlantic oscillations(NAO)appeared in three styles,for three scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5and RCP8.5,)of Winter North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)and wWinter sStorm tTracks(WST)in the Nnorth hHemisphere were characterizedhave been studied.For all the styles of NOA,In the three scenarios,all NAO indices showed a cycle in a length of 9to 14 years,and the intensity ies of WST hadve a growth trend with while their centers always moved to either northeast or southwest always.The results of cComposite analysis indicated that,the responses of WST responded to the shifting of NAO phrase differentially among three styles greatly for different scenarios.For the years when of weak NAO was weak,the area and intensity of the Pacific WST presented negatively anomaly,and the position keept s away from Eurasia in for RCP2.6.In contrast,,while the area of Atlantic WST was shows positively anomaly.For RCP4.5,the areas of both two WSTs increased in during NAO negative NAO phrase.In addition,the Atlantic WST strengthened with its s and its center located close to America.For RCP8.5in during the same NAO phrase,both two WSTs intensifiedy.Meanwhile,the area of the Pacific WST rose with ises and its position keept s away from Eurasia.
Based on the output of atmospheric model ECHAM5,the characteristics in the future 21 st st century winter north Atlantic oscillations(NAO)appeared in three styles,for three scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5and RCP8.5,)of Winter North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)and wWinter sStorm tTracks(WST)in the Nnorth hHemisphere were characterizedhave been studied.For all the styles of NOA,In the three scenarios,all NAO indices showed a cycle in a length of 9to 14 years,and the intensity ies of WST hadve a growth trend with while their centers always moved to either northeast or southwest always.The results of cComposite analysis indicated that,the responses of WST responded to the shifting of NAO phrase differentially among three styles greatly for different scenarios.For the years when of weak NAO was weak,the area and intensity of the Pacific WST presented negatively anomaly,and the position keept s away from Eurasia in for RCP2.6.In contrast,,while the area of Atlantic WST was shows positively anomaly.For RCP4.5,the areas of both two WSTs increased in during NAO negative NAO phrase.In addition,the Atlantic WST strengthened with its s and its center located close to America.For RCP8.5in during the same NAO phrase,both two WSTs intensifiedy.Meanwhile,the area of the Pacific WST rose with ises and its position keept s away from Eurasia.
引文
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[2]胡跃文,杨小怡.北极涛动和北大西洋涛动的低频变化特征[J].气象科学,2007,27(3):316-322.
[3]龚道溢,王绍武.北大西洋涛动指数的比较及其年代际变率[J].大气科学,2000,3(2):45-49.
[4]王永波,施能.近45a冬季北大西洋涛动异常与我国气候的关系[J].南京:南京气象学院学报,2001,24(3):315-322.
[5]顾薇,李崇银.IPCCAR4中海气耦合模式对中国东部夏季降水及PDO、NAO年代际变化的模拟能力分析[J].大气科学学报,2010,33(4):401-411.
[6]孙即霖,杨超.冬季北太平洋与北大西洋上空风暴轴特征比较与分析[J].青岛:中国海洋大学学报,2011,41(10):001-009.
[7]高琦.冬季北太平洋风暴轴的时空演变及其与AO关系的初步研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2006.
[8]邓兴秀,孙照渤.北半球风暴轴的时间演变特征[J].南京:南京气象学院学报,1994,17(2):165-170.
[9]高琦,孙照渤,等.冬季北太平洋风暴轴的年代际变化[J].南京气象学院学报,2008,31(2):272-276.
[10]Rossi A,N Massei,B Laignel.A synthesis of the time-scale variability of commonly used climate indices using continuous wavelet transform[J].Global and Planetary Change,2011,78(1):1-13.
[11]Rogers J C.North Atlantic Storm Track Variability and Its Association to the North Atlantic Oscillation and Climate Variability of Northern Europe[J].J.Climate,1997,10(7),1635-1647.
[12]IPCC.Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[13]林而达,刘颖杰.温室气体排放和气候变化新情景研究的最新进展[J].中国农业科学,2008,41(6):1700-1707.