长江经济带县域城乡收入差距的空间格局及其影响因素
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摘要
以城乡收入比为测度指标,采用变异系数、泰尔指数、莫兰指数、空间分类、探索性空间数据分析等方法,分析2000年以来长江经济带县域城乡收入差距的空间格局演变及其影响因素。结果显示:12000—2014年变异系数、泰尔指数不断下降,表明长江经济带县域城乡收入差距呈现日趋减小的趋势。2从空间分类格局看,极高、高、较高城乡收入差距区主要分布在西部并形成大范围高值集中区,近期三者的数量大幅减少但依然占据主导;极低、低、较低城乡收入差距区主要分布在中东部地区,在长三角、主要城市群以及经济发达区形成连绵分布区;较高、高城乡收入差距区在中部、东部基本上变化为中等、较低城乡收入差距区,近期这两个类型区几乎消失。3从空间关联格局看,HH区和LL区在空间上集聚格局明显。显著HH区主要在川西、滇西以及滇南形成连绵分布区,近期集聚态势进一步增强;显著LL区在中部、东部的分布范围在不同年份虽有变化但近期集聚效应明显增加,近期显著LL区明显集中在两个区域:一个以武汉城市圈、长株潭城市群为主,另一个是在长三角地区。4影响空间格局的主要因素为:优越的区位条件依然发挥重要作用,农业现代化进程起正向促进作用,经济发展水平起决定性支撑作用,工业化、城镇化发挥重要的推动作用,信息化起一定的"阻碍"作用,战略政策的支持起宏观引领作用。
The coefficient of variation, Theil index, Moran's I, spatial classification, exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial regression were used for analyzing the spatial pattern evolution of urban-rural income gap and its driving factors at county level in Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2014 based on the index of urban-rural income ratio. The results showed that:(1) The overall difference level of urban-rural income gap decreased during the study period,indicating the urban-rural income distribution pattern of the Yangtze River Economic Belt turned to a favorable direction.(2) From the number of spatial classification, the number of the extreme low urban-rural income gap areas was the least with a fluctuation. The number of the low urban-rural income gap areas substantial increased, the change of the number of lower urban-rural income gap areas was unapparent. The number of the middle-income and high-income gap areas increased slightly. The number of the higher-income gap areas decreased with a fluctuation and the extreme high urbanrural income gap areas decreased dramatically. From the pattern of spatial distribution, the areas with extremely high,higher and high urban-rural income gap occupied the main type and aggregated in the western region. Although above three areas have decreased sharply in recent years, it is still difficult to reduce the urban-rural income gap in the western region. The areas with extremely low, lower and low urban-rural income gap were mainly distributed in the eastern region(Yangtze River Delta, major urban agglomeration and developed areas). The areas with higher and high urban-rural income gap in the central and eastern transformed to the areas with middle and lower urban-rural income gap during the study period. And the areas with higher and high urban-rural income gap have nearly disappeared in recent years.(3)From the pattern of spatial auto-correlation, the urban-rural income gap appeared significant spatial agglomeration characteristics, that meant the number of the High-High regions(HH regions) and Low-Low regions(LL regions)occupied most and the spatial agglomeration pattern was obvious. The significant HH areas were mainly distributed in the west of Sichuan and Yunnan and south of Yunnan, which formed the continuous distribution area. And the agglomeration has further enhanced in recent years. The distribution of the significant LL areas in the central and eastern of the whole economic region changed in different years. But the aggregation effect has increased obviously in recent years. The significant LL areas have mainly concentrated in two areas in recent years, one is the area nearby the Jing-Guang Railway in Hunan and Hubei Province, especially the Wuhan City Circle and Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration. The other is Yangtze River Delta region.(4) Quantitative evaluation and qualitative explanation revealed that the influence factors of driving effect were as follows: the superior geographical conditions still played an important role; the process of agricultural modernization played a positive role; the level of economic development played a role of decisive support;the urbanization and industrialization played a role of important driving force; the strategic policy played an important role of leading; but the informatization played a negative role. Combined with the results of qualitative explanation and analysis of the driving factors, some improving suggestions are proposed.
The coefficient of variation, Theil index, Moran's I, spatial classification, exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial regression were used for analyzing the spatial pattern evolution of urban-rural income gap and its driving factors at county level in Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2014 based on the index of urban-rural income ratio. The results showed that:(1) The overall difference level of urban-rural income gap decreased during the study period,indicating the urban-rural income distribution pattern of the Yangtze River Economic Belt turned to a favorable direction.(2) From the number of spatial classification, the number of the extreme low urban-rural income gap areas was the least with a fluctuation. The number of the low urban-rural income gap areas substantial increased, the change of the number of lower urban-rural income gap areas was unapparent. The number of the middle-income and high-income gap areas increased slightly. The number of the higher-income gap areas decreased with a fluctuation and the extreme high urbanrural income gap areas decreased dramatically. From the pattern of spatial distribution, the areas with extremely high,higher and high urban-rural income gap occupied the main type and aggregated in the western region. Although above three areas have decreased sharply in recent years, it is still difficult to reduce the urban-rural income gap in the western region. The areas with extremely low, lower and low urban-rural income gap were mainly distributed in the eastern region(Yangtze River Delta, major urban agglomeration and developed areas). The areas with higher and high urban-rural income gap in the central and eastern transformed to the areas with middle and lower urban-rural income gap during the study period. And the areas with higher and high urban-rural income gap have nearly disappeared in recent years.(3)From the pattern of spatial auto-correlation, the urban-rural income gap appeared significant spatial agglomeration characteristics, that meant the number of the High-High regions(HH regions) and Low-Low regions(LL regions)occupied most and the spatial agglomeration pattern was obvious. The significant HH areas were mainly distributed in the west of Sichuan and Yunnan and south of Yunnan, which formed the continuous distribution area. And the agglomeration has further enhanced in recent years. The distribution of the significant LL areas in the central and eastern of the whole economic region changed in different years. But the aggregation effect has increased obviously in recent years. The significant LL areas have mainly concentrated in two areas in recent years, one is the area nearby the Jing-Guang Railway in Hunan and Hubei Province, especially the Wuhan City Circle and Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration. The other is Yangtze River Delta region.(4) Quantitative evaluation and qualitative explanation revealed that the influence factors of driving effect were as follows: the superior geographical conditions still played an important role; the process of agricultural modernization played a positive role; the level of economic development played a role of decisive support;the urbanization and industrialization played a role of important driving force; the strategic policy played an important role of leading; but the informatization played a negative role. Combined with the results of qualitative explanation and analysis of the driving factors, some improving suggestions are proposed.
引文
[1]吴学凡.新时期中国城乡差别问题[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2009.
[2]李实,岳希明.中国城乡收入差距世界最高[J].理论参考,2005(4):50-52.
[3]丁志伟,张改素,王发曾.中原地区多尺度城乡收入的时空分异[J].地理研究,2015,24(1):131-148.
[4]仲华.专家调研显示:中国城乡收入差距世界最高[J].当代经济,2004(5):5.
[5]连玉明.社会管理蓝皮书——中国社会管理创新报告No.1[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2012.
[6]林毅夫,蔡昉,李周.中国转型时期的地区差距分析[J].经济研究,1998(6):5-12.
[7]王红涛.中国城乡收入差距分析——基于泰尔指数的分解[J].经济论坛,2009(12):4-8.
[8]王少平,欧阳志刚.中国城乡收入差距对实际经济增长的阈值效应[J].中国社会科学,2008(2):54-66.
[9]韩立岩,杜春越.收入差距、借贷水平与居民消费的地区及城乡差异[J].经济研究,2012(S1):15-27.
[10]杨天宇,刘青松,范静泊.城乡移民与居民收入不平等:基于变异系数的理论分析[J].云南财经大学学报,2012(5):28-35.
[11]宋伟轩,陈雯,彭颖.长三角区域一体化背景下城乡收入格局演变研究[J].地理科学,2013,33(9):1 037-1 042.
[12]陈建东.按城乡分解我国居民收入基尼系数的研究[J].中国经济问题,2010(4):33-41.
[13]许秀川,王钊.城市化、工业化与城乡收入差距互动关系的实证研究[J].农业经济问题,2008(12):65-71.
[14]周少甫,亓寿伟,卢忠宝.地区差异、城市化与城乡收入差异[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(8):115-120.
[15]刘添荣,叶民强.中国城乡收入差异的库兹涅茨曲线研究——基于各省份面板数据(1978—2000年)实证分析[J].经济问题探索,2006(6):9-13.
[16]吴先华.城镇化、市民化与城乡收入差距关系的实证研究——基于山东省时间序列数据及面板数据的实证分析[J].地理科学,2011,31(1):68-73.
[17]潘竟虎.中国地级及以上城市城乡收入差距时空分异格局[J].经济地理,2014,34(6):60-67.
[18]杨国安,徐勇.中国西部城乡收入差距与城镇化的关系检验——以青海省为例[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(8):961-967.
[19]曾国安,胡晶晶.20世纪70年代末以来中国城乡居民收入差距的演变、影响与调节政策选择[J].中国地质大学学报:社会科学版,2005,5(6):1-6.
[20]曾国安,胡晶晶.中国城乡居民收入差距演变趋势及原因研究述评[J].当代经济研究,2007(6):26-30.
[21]李云娥,周云波.中国城乡收入差距未来发展趋势的预测[J].山西财经大学学报,2007,29(10):14-18.
[22]李若建.城乡居民收入差距的时空特征分析[J].农业经济问题,1994(6):12-15.
[23]蔡昉.城乡收入差距与制度变革的临界点[J].中国社会科学,2003(5):16-25.
[24]李实,罗楚亮.中国城乡居民收入差距的重新估计[J].北京大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2007,44(2):111-120.
[25]张红宇.城乡居民收入差距的平抑机制:工业化中期阶段的经济增长与政府行为选择[J].管理世界,2004(4):9-21.
[26]王凤芹.中国城乡收入差距现状及缩小差距的措施研究[J].特区经济,2010(10):231-232.
[27]宋笑月.缩小湖南城乡收入差距的农业产业化路径[J].经济地理,2011,31(6):1003-1007.
[28]杨娜曼,肖地楚,黄静波.城乡统筹发展视角下湖南省城乡协调发展评价[J].经济地理,2014,34(3):58-64.
[29]Yang D T.Urban-biased policies and rising income inequality in China[J].American Economic Review,1999,89(2):306-310.
[30]雷根强,蔡翔.初次分配扭曲、财政支出城市偏向与城乡收入差距——来自中国省级面板数据的经验证据[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2012(3):76-89.
[31]冉光和,潘辉.政府公共支出的收入分配效应研究——基于VAR模型的检验[J].重庆大学学报:社会科学版,2009,15(2):19-23.
[32]林光彬.等级制度、市场经济与城乡收入差距扩大[J].管理世界,2004(4):36-46.
[33]蔡继明.中国城乡比较生产力与相对收入差别[J].经济研究,1998(1):13-21.
[34]郭剑雄.人力资本、生育率与城乡收入差距的收敛[J].中国社会科学,2005(3):27-37.
[35]苏华,陈伟华,陈文俊.要素生产率和要素配置作用下的中国城乡收入差距[J].经济地理,2012,32(4):44-49.
[36]李实.中国农村劳动力流动与收入增长和分配[J].中国社会科学,1999(2):16-33.
[37]刘彦随,彦镔,王燕飞.新时期中国城乡发展的主要问题与转型对策[J].经济地理,2016,36(7):1-8.
[38]程开明,李金昌.城市偏向、城市化与城乡收入差距的作用机制及动态分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007(7):116-125.
[39]彭真善.中国转型期城乡收入差距问题研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2007.
[40]张改素.基于新型城镇化的中原经济区城乡统筹发展研究[D].开封:河南大学,2015.
[41]中共中央,国务院.国务院关于依托黄金水道推动长江经济带发展的指导意见[EB/OL].http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/cont ent/2014-09/25/content_9092.htm.
[2]李实,岳希明.中国城乡收入差距世界最高[J].理论参考,2005(4):50-52.
[3]丁志伟,张改素,王发曾.中原地区多尺度城乡收入的时空分异[J].地理研究,2015,24(1):131-148.
[4]仲华.专家调研显示:中国城乡收入差距世界最高[J].当代经济,2004(5):5.
[5]连玉明.社会管理蓝皮书——中国社会管理创新报告No.1[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2012.
[6]林毅夫,蔡昉,李周.中国转型时期的地区差距分析[J].经济研究,1998(6):5-12.
[7]王红涛.中国城乡收入差距分析——基于泰尔指数的分解[J].经济论坛,2009(12):4-8.
[8]王少平,欧阳志刚.中国城乡收入差距对实际经济增长的阈值效应[J].中国社会科学,2008(2):54-66.
[9]韩立岩,杜春越.收入差距、借贷水平与居民消费的地区及城乡差异[J].经济研究,2012(S1):15-27.
[10]杨天宇,刘青松,范静泊.城乡移民与居民收入不平等:基于变异系数的理论分析[J].云南财经大学学报,2012(5):28-35.
[11]宋伟轩,陈雯,彭颖.长三角区域一体化背景下城乡收入格局演变研究[J].地理科学,2013,33(9):1 037-1 042.
[12]陈建东.按城乡分解我国居民收入基尼系数的研究[J].中国经济问题,2010(4):33-41.
[13]许秀川,王钊.城市化、工业化与城乡收入差距互动关系的实证研究[J].农业经济问题,2008(12):65-71.
[14]周少甫,亓寿伟,卢忠宝.地区差异、城市化与城乡收入差异[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(8):115-120.
[15]刘添荣,叶民强.中国城乡收入差异的库兹涅茨曲线研究——基于各省份面板数据(1978—2000年)实证分析[J].经济问题探索,2006(6):9-13.
[16]吴先华.城镇化、市民化与城乡收入差距关系的实证研究——基于山东省时间序列数据及面板数据的实证分析[J].地理科学,2011,31(1):68-73.
[17]潘竟虎.中国地级及以上城市城乡收入差距时空分异格局[J].经济地理,2014,34(6):60-67.
[18]杨国安,徐勇.中国西部城乡收入差距与城镇化的关系检验——以青海省为例[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(8):961-967.
[19]曾国安,胡晶晶.20世纪70年代末以来中国城乡居民收入差距的演变、影响与调节政策选择[J].中国地质大学学报:社会科学版,2005,5(6):1-6.
[20]曾国安,胡晶晶.中国城乡居民收入差距演变趋势及原因研究述评[J].当代经济研究,2007(6):26-30.
[21]李云娥,周云波.中国城乡收入差距未来发展趋势的预测[J].山西财经大学学报,2007,29(10):14-18.
[22]李若建.城乡居民收入差距的时空特征分析[J].农业经济问题,1994(6):12-15.
[23]蔡昉.城乡收入差距与制度变革的临界点[J].中国社会科学,2003(5):16-25.
[24]李实,罗楚亮.中国城乡居民收入差距的重新估计[J].北京大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2007,44(2):111-120.
[25]张红宇.城乡居民收入差距的平抑机制:工业化中期阶段的经济增长与政府行为选择[J].管理世界,2004(4):9-21.
[26]王凤芹.中国城乡收入差距现状及缩小差距的措施研究[J].特区经济,2010(10):231-232.
[27]宋笑月.缩小湖南城乡收入差距的农业产业化路径[J].经济地理,2011,31(6):1003-1007.
[28]杨娜曼,肖地楚,黄静波.城乡统筹发展视角下湖南省城乡协调发展评价[J].经济地理,2014,34(3):58-64.
[29]Yang D T.Urban-biased policies and rising income inequality in China[J].American Economic Review,1999,89(2):306-310.
[30]雷根强,蔡翔.初次分配扭曲、财政支出城市偏向与城乡收入差距——来自中国省级面板数据的经验证据[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2012(3):76-89.
[31]冉光和,潘辉.政府公共支出的收入分配效应研究——基于VAR模型的检验[J].重庆大学学报:社会科学版,2009,15(2):19-23.
[32]林光彬.等级制度、市场经济与城乡收入差距扩大[J].管理世界,2004(4):36-46.
[33]蔡继明.中国城乡比较生产力与相对收入差别[J].经济研究,1998(1):13-21.
[34]郭剑雄.人力资本、生育率与城乡收入差距的收敛[J].中国社会科学,2005(3):27-37.
[35]苏华,陈伟华,陈文俊.要素生产率和要素配置作用下的中国城乡收入差距[J].经济地理,2012,32(4):44-49.
[36]李实.中国农村劳动力流动与收入增长和分配[J].中国社会科学,1999(2):16-33.
[37]刘彦随,彦镔,王燕飞.新时期中国城乡发展的主要问题与转型对策[J].经济地理,2016,36(7):1-8.
[38]程开明,李金昌.城市偏向、城市化与城乡收入差距的作用机制及动态分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007(7):116-125.
[39]彭真善.中国转型期城乡收入差距问题研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2007.
[40]张改素.基于新型城镇化的中原经济区城乡统筹发展研究[D].开封:河南大学,2015.
[41]中共中央,国务院.国务院关于依托黄金水道推动长江经济带发展的指导意见[EB/OL].http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/cont ent/2014-09/25/content_9092.htm.