澳大利亚对“一带一路”倡议的态度及原因探析
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摘要
中国提出"一带一路"倡议后,受到国际社会的广泛支持,大洋洲地区各国反应热烈,新西兰、巴布亚新几内亚等已先后与中国签订"一带一路"倡议合作谅解备忘录。澳大利亚既是美国在亚太地区最重要的盟友之一,也是"21世纪海上丝绸之路"南线地区的重要区域大国,却在对待"一带一路"倡议上迟疑不决。澳大利亚国内对于是否积极响应"一带一路"倡议存在较大分歧,一方面,有分析认为这能为澳大利亚带来新的经济利益,不能错失这个重要商机;另一方面,不少分析认为这是中国在亚太地区的重大战略布局,是对美国在亚太区域主导权的挑战,如果澳方积极响应,将进一步挤压美国的战略空间,作为长期依靠美国提供安全保障的澳大利亚,应该审慎地把握加入以后带来的战略后果。基于澳大利亚的这一反应及其背后的复杂原因,中国化解澳大利亚疑虑的基本思路应为:以"命运共同体"为纲领,力求融入现行的国际规范,在一定程度上遵守现有的地区秩序,尊重澳大利亚在大洋洲地区秩序的角色,使"亲诚惠容"原则与中澳关系相交融。
Since it is proposed,the Belt and Road Initiative has received extensive support from the international community. Countries in the Oceania region such as New Zealand and Fiji signed the Memorandum of Understanding on the Belt and Road initiative and showed great interest in the initiative. However,Australia,one of the most important alliances of the United States in the Asia-pacific region and a significant player along the south line of the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative,seems to be reluctant and conservative to the initiative. The article examines Australia's feedback and debates from political,business and academic perspectives. It is found that the Australians have not reached a consensus on this issue. While some argue that it would be of great benefit to Australia's economy,some believe that it would lead to serious strategic consequences and challenge the strategic interests of the U.S,the most important security alliance for Australia. In light of the analysis,the author proposed that a broad framework to resolve the concerns of Australia by implementing a community of shared future for mankind and following the principles of amity,sincerity,mutual benefit and inclusiveness,as a general guide to integrate into the current international order and to respect the role of Australia in Oceania region and to push forward the China-Australia relationship to a more mutual beneficial stage.
Since it is proposed,the Belt and Road Initiative has received extensive support from the international community. Countries in the Oceania region such as New Zealand and Fiji signed the Memorandum of Understanding on the Belt and Road initiative and showed great interest in the initiative. However,Australia,one of the most important alliances of the United States in the Asia-pacific region and a significant player along the south line of the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative,seems to be reluctant and conservative to the initiative. The article examines Australia's feedback and debates from political,business and academic perspectives. It is found that the Australians have not reached a consensus on this issue. While some argue that it would be of great benefit to Australia's economy,some believe that it would lead to serious strategic consequences and challenge the strategic interests of the U.S,the most important security alliance for Australia. In light of the analysis,the author proposed that a broad framework to resolve the concerns of Australia by implementing a community of shared future for mankind and following the principles of amity,sincerity,mutual benefit and inclusiveness,as a general guide to integrate into the current international order and to respect the role of Australia in Oceania region and to push forward the China-Australia relationship to a more mutual beneficial stage.
引文
(1)“习近平会见澳大利亚总理特恩布尔”,新华网,2015年11月16日,http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2015-11/16/c_1117159099.htm。
(2)“习近平会见澳大利亚总理特恩布尔”,《人民日报》,2016年4月16日。
(1)Primrose Riordan,“China Snubbed on Road and Port Push”,The Australian,Mar.20,2017.
(2)Australia and China Relations Institute,“Australia and the Belt and Road Initiative:An Overview”,ACRI,Dec.12,2017,http://www.australiachinarelations.org/content/australia-and-belt-and-road-initiative-overview.
(3)Philip Coorey,“Australia Mulls Rival to China's‘Belt and Road’with US,Japan,India”,The Australian Financial Reveiw,Feb.18,2017.
(4)“Chinese Ambassador Calls for Australia to Join Belt and Road Initiative”,Xinhua,Jul.8,2018,http://www.ecns.cn/news/politics/2018-07-11/detail-ifyvzyvz7260366.shtml.
(1)ABC News Repor,t“One Belt One Road:Australia‘Sees Merit’in China's New Silk Road Initiative,”ABC,May 12,2017,http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-14/ciobo-sees-merit-inchinas-new-silk-road-initiative/8525440.
(2)Andree Greene,“One Belt,One Road:Australian‘Strategic’Concerns over Beijing's Bid for Global Trend Dominance”,ABC,Oct.23,2017,http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-22/australianconcerns-over-beijing-one-belt-one-road-trade-bid/9074602.
(3)“Australian Shadow Treasurer Expresses Interest in China's Belt and Road Initiative”,Xinhua,Sept.30,2017,http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-09/30/c_136650310.htm.
(1)Hugh White,“NT Business Welcome Chinese Investment”,ABC,Aug.8,2017,http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-08/onebelt-one-road-nt-businesses-welcome-chinese-investment/8783846.
(2)Nick Bisley,“Australia’s Oddly Absent Belt and Road Strategy”,Lowy Institue,Oct.12,2017,https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/australia-s-oddly-absent-belt-and-road-strategy.
(3)See Clive Hamilton,Silent Invasion:How China Is Turning Australia into a Puppet Nation,Melbourne:Hardie Grant Books,2018.
(4)Graham Richardson,“Clive Hamilton Is Treating Us as Mugs”,The Australian,Mar.1,2018.
(5)See Simon Norton,“China's Grand Strategy”,The University of Sydney China Studies Centre,Nov.,2015,http://sydney.edu.au/china_studies_centre/images/content/ccpublications/policy_paper_series/2015/chinas-grand-strategy.pdf.
(6)James Laurenceson,et al.,“Australia’s Misplaced Fear over China’s Belt and Road”,ACRI,Nov.16,2017,http://www.australiachinarelations.org/content/australias-misplaced-fear-overchinas-belt-and-road-1.
(7)Richard Rigby,“Multipolar Moment,a Dialogue between Australia and China Scholars”,Speech at Australia National Univeristy,China in the World Centre,Oct.24,2017.
(1)ABC,“Power and Influence”,Jun.5,2017,http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/power-and-influence-promo/8579844.
(2)Paul Kelly,“One Belt,One Road:Australia Needs to Bide Its Time,”The Australian,May.24,2017,https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/paul-kelly/one-belt-one-road-australianeeds-to-bide-its-time/news-story/22c632e9ef23a75300a2773fd4938fc8.
(3)Tom Boyd,“Business Should Not be Deterred by the Lukewarm Reaction from the Government”,The Australian Financial Review,May.23,2017.
(4)李锋:“大亨猛批本国对华‘妄想症’”,《环球时报》,2018年3月3日。
(5)Glen Noris,“BHP Director Malcolm Broomhead Calls on Business to Support China Belt and Road”,The Courier Mail,Oct.11,2017.
(6)Arnoud Balhuizen,“China’s Belt and Road Initiative,Episode Two:A Vision Encased in Steel”,BHP,Sept.26,2017,https://www.bhp.com/media-and-insights/prospects/2017/09/beltand-road-initiative.
(1)Nicola Robison,Morgan Stanley,“BHP Tips Surge in Steel Demand on China's‘Belt and Road’Plan”,Sydney Morning Herald,Sept.26,2017.
(2)ANZ Institutional Bank,“One Belt One Road,One Giant Opportunity”,The Australian,Jun.27,2018,https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/one-belt-one-road-one-giant-opportunity/news-story/c965b51be2c65329bb9968f94514a1b3.
(3)Craig Aldous,“BRI Would be Great for Australian Business”,Speech at Foundation for Australian Studies in China Xuzhou Conference,Nov.11,2017.
(4)“澳专家盼澳大利亚搭乘‘一带一路’快车”,人民网,2017年4月26日,http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2017/0426/c1002-29238114.html。
(5)同(4)。
(1)于镭:“澳大利亚近年来连续阻挠我重大投资的原因探析及我因应之策”,《太平洋学报》,2017年第10期,第97-103页。
(2)Julie Bishop,“Australian Foreign Policy:the Coalition Approach”,The Australian Journal of International Affairs,Vol.70,No.5,2016,pp.453-459.
(3)马建英:“美国对中国‘一带一路’倡议的认知与反应”,《世界经济与政治》,2015年第10期,第104-132页。
(4)Geof Dyer,“Obama Says AIIB Could be‘Positive’for A-sia,”The Financial Times,Apr.28,2015.
(1)Allan Gyngell,Fear of Abandonment:Australia in the World since 1942,Melbourne:Latrobe University Press,2017,p.12.
(2)前文已论述党内高层,如毕晓普、麦克·帕泽洛等重要议员的相关观点。
(3)这一行为被澳政治学界称为“党员冲抵”(Branch Stacking),通过吸引在某一地区的特定党员,改变党内人员的构成,以此达到影响党内选举的目的。
(4)Jane Norman,“Victorian Liberals Claim Right Faction Stacking Branches with Mormons and Catholics”,ABC,Jun.3,2017,http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-30/victoria-liberals-religiousright-branch-stacking-fears/866775.
(5)Simon Beson,“Liberals Are Not Conservatives:PM”,The Australian,Jul.11,2017.
(6)澳大利亚的部长叫Minister,部长一定都是民选的议员,属于政务官,一般情况下,澳大利亚外交部长都是内阁成员,如现任的朱莉·毕晓普(Julie Bishop)。而主管澳大利亚外交事宜的职能部门全称是Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade(外交贸易部),即外交贸易部。有些时候外交贸易部会有两个部长,即外交部长和贸易部长,他们在部里分别负责外交和贸易两个领域(Portfolio)。此外还有两位是政务次长(Parliamentary Secretary),一位是参议员,另一位是众议员,他们四位都是民选的国会议员,属于政务官。值得注意的是,部里最大的事务官不是部长(minister),而是部里的秘书长(secretary),相当于中国的常务副部长,但是秘书长(secretary)和下面的官员都是事务官,都不是民选的。
(1)Andree Greene,“One Belt,One Road:Australian‘Strategic’Concerns over Beijing’s Bid for Global Trend Dominance”,ABC,Oct.22,2017,http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-22/australian-concerns-over-beijing-one-belt-one-road-trade-bid/9074602.
(2)Nick Bisley,“Australia’s Oddly Absent Belt and Road Strategy”,Lowy Institute,Oct.12,2017,https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/australia-s-oddly-absent-belt-and-road-strategy.
(3)Penny Wong,“Foreign Policy in a Time of Disruption”,speech at Singapore National Unversity Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy,Mar.29,2017,https://www.pennywong.com.au/speeches/foreign-policy-in-a-time-of-disruption-speech-to-global-heads-ofmission-meeting/.
(1)Allan Gyngell,Fear of Abandonment:Australia in the World since 1942,Melbourne:Latrobe University Press,2017,p.3.
(2)“Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Population”,ABS,Jun.28,2017,http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/68AE74ED632E17A6CA2573D200110075?opendocument.
(3)“U.S.Policy on the New Zealand Port Access Issue”,National Security Decision Directive 193,Federation of American Scientists Intelligence Program,Oct.21,1985,https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nsdd/nsdd-193.htm.
(2)“习近平会见澳大利亚总理特恩布尔”,《人民日报》,2016年4月16日。
(1)Primrose Riordan,“China Snubbed on Road and Port Push”,The Australian,Mar.20,2017.
(2)Australia and China Relations Institute,“Australia and the Belt and Road Initiative:An Overview”,ACRI,Dec.12,2017,http://www.australiachinarelations.org/content/australia-and-belt-and-road-initiative-overview.
(3)Philip Coorey,“Australia Mulls Rival to China's‘Belt and Road’with US,Japan,India”,The Australian Financial Reveiw,Feb.18,2017.
(4)“Chinese Ambassador Calls for Australia to Join Belt and Road Initiative”,Xinhua,Jul.8,2018,http://www.ecns.cn/news/politics/2018-07-11/detail-ifyvzyvz7260366.shtml.
(1)ABC News Repor,t“One Belt One Road:Australia‘Sees Merit’in China's New Silk Road Initiative,”ABC,May 12,2017,http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-14/ciobo-sees-merit-inchinas-new-silk-road-initiative/8525440.
(2)Andree Greene,“One Belt,One Road:Australian‘Strategic’Concerns over Beijing's Bid for Global Trend Dominance”,ABC,Oct.23,2017,http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-22/australianconcerns-over-beijing-one-belt-one-road-trade-bid/9074602.
(3)“Australian Shadow Treasurer Expresses Interest in China's Belt and Road Initiative”,Xinhua,Sept.30,2017,http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-09/30/c_136650310.htm.
(1)Hugh White,“NT Business Welcome Chinese Investment”,ABC,Aug.8,2017,http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-08/onebelt-one-road-nt-businesses-welcome-chinese-investment/8783846.
(2)Nick Bisley,“Australia’s Oddly Absent Belt and Road Strategy”,Lowy Institue,Oct.12,2017,https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/australia-s-oddly-absent-belt-and-road-strategy.
(3)See Clive Hamilton,Silent Invasion:How China Is Turning Australia into a Puppet Nation,Melbourne:Hardie Grant Books,2018.
(4)Graham Richardson,“Clive Hamilton Is Treating Us as Mugs”,The Australian,Mar.1,2018.
(5)See Simon Norton,“China's Grand Strategy”,The University of Sydney China Studies Centre,Nov.,2015,http://sydney.edu.au/china_studies_centre/images/content/ccpublications/policy_paper_series/2015/chinas-grand-strategy.pdf.
(6)James Laurenceson,et al.,“Australia’s Misplaced Fear over China’s Belt and Road”,ACRI,Nov.16,2017,http://www.australiachinarelations.org/content/australias-misplaced-fear-overchinas-belt-and-road-1.
(7)Richard Rigby,“Multipolar Moment,a Dialogue between Australia and China Scholars”,Speech at Australia National Univeristy,China in the World Centre,Oct.24,2017.
(1)ABC,“Power and Influence”,Jun.5,2017,http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/power-and-influence-promo/8579844.
(2)Paul Kelly,“One Belt,One Road:Australia Needs to Bide Its Time,”The Australian,May.24,2017,https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/paul-kelly/one-belt-one-road-australianeeds-to-bide-its-time/news-story/22c632e9ef23a75300a2773fd4938fc8.
(3)Tom Boyd,“Business Should Not be Deterred by the Lukewarm Reaction from the Government”,The Australian Financial Review,May.23,2017.
(4)李锋:“大亨猛批本国对华‘妄想症’”,《环球时报》,2018年3月3日。
(5)Glen Noris,“BHP Director Malcolm Broomhead Calls on Business to Support China Belt and Road”,The Courier Mail,Oct.11,2017.
(6)Arnoud Balhuizen,“China’s Belt and Road Initiative,Episode Two:A Vision Encased in Steel”,BHP,Sept.26,2017,https://www.bhp.com/media-and-insights/prospects/2017/09/beltand-road-initiative.
(1)Nicola Robison,Morgan Stanley,“BHP Tips Surge in Steel Demand on China's‘Belt and Road’Plan”,Sydney Morning Herald,Sept.26,2017.
(2)ANZ Institutional Bank,“One Belt One Road,One Giant Opportunity”,The Australian,Jun.27,2018,https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/one-belt-one-road-one-giant-opportunity/news-story/c965b51be2c65329bb9968f94514a1b3.
(3)Craig Aldous,“BRI Would be Great for Australian Business”,Speech at Foundation for Australian Studies in China Xuzhou Conference,Nov.11,2017.
(4)“澳专家盼澳大利亚搭乘‘一带一路’快车”,人民网,2017年4月26日,http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2017/0426/c1002-29238114.html。
(5)同(4)。
(1)于镭:“澳大利亚近年来连续阻挠我重大投资的原因探析及我因应之策”,《太平洋学报》,2017年第10期,第97-103页。
(2)Julie Bishop,“Australian Foreign Policy:the Coalition Approach”,The Australian Journal of International Affairs,Vol.70,No.5,2016,pp.453-459.
(3)马建英:“美国对中国‘一带一路’倡议的认知与反应”,《世界经济与政治》,2015年第10期,第104-132页。
(4)Geof Dyer,“Obama Says AIIB Could be‘Positive’for A-sia,”The Financial Times,Apr.28,2015.
(1)Allan Gyngell,Fear of Abandonment:Australia in the World since 1942,Melbourne:Latrobe University Press,2017,p.12.
(2)前文已论述党内高层,如毕晓普、麦克·帕泽洛等重要议员的相关观点。
(3)这一行为被澳政治学界称为“党员冲抵”(Branch Stacking),通过吸引在某一地区的特定党员,改变党内人员的构成,以此达到影响党内选举的目的。
(4)Jane Norman,“Victorian Liberals Claim Right Faction Stacking Branches with Mormons and Catholics”,ABC,Jun.3,2017,http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-30/victoria-liberals-religiousright-branch-stacking-fears/866775.
(5)Simon Beson,“Liberals Are Not Conservatives:PM”,The Australian,Jul.11,2017.
(6)澳大利亚的部长叫Minister,部长一定都是民选的议员,属于政务官,一般情况下,澳大利亚外交部长都是内阁成员,如现任的朱莉·毕晓普(Julie Bishop)。而主管澳大利亚外交事宜的职能部门全称是Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade(外交贸易部),即外交贸易部。有些时候外交贸易部会有两个部长,即外交部长和贸易部长,他们在部里分别负责外交和贸易两个领域(Portfolio)。此外还有两位是政务次长(Parliamentary Secretary),一位是参议员,另一位是众议员,他们四位都是民选的国会议员,属于政务官。值得注意的是,部里最大的事务官不是部长(minister),而是部里的秘书长(secretary),相当于中国的常务副部长,但是秘书长(secretary)和下面的官员都是事务官,都不是民选的。
(1)Andree Greene,“One Belt,One Road:Australian‘Strategic’Concerns over Beijing’s Bid for Global Trend Dominance”,ABC,Oct.22,2017,http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-22/australian-concerns-over-beijing-one-belt-one-road-trade-bid/9074602.
(2)Nick Bisley,“Australia’s Oddly Absent Belt and Road Strategy”,Lowy Institute,Oct.12,2017,https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/australia-s-oddly-absent-belt-and-road-strategy.
(3)Penny Wong,“Foreign Policy in a Time of Disruption”,speech at Singapore National Unversity Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy,Mar.29,2017,https://www.pennywong.com.au/speeches/foreign-policy-in-a-time-of-disruption-speech-to-global-heads-ofmission-meeting/.
(1)Allan Gyngell,Fear of Abandonment:Australia in the World since 1942,Melbourne:Latrobe University Press,2017,p.3.
(2)“Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Population”,ABS,Jun.28,2017,http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/68AE74ED632E17A6CA2573D200110075?opendocument.
(3)“U.S.Policy on the New Zealand Port Access Issue”,National Security Decision Directive 193,Federation of American Scientists Intelligence Program,Oct.21,1985,https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nsdd/nsdd-193.htm.